Favorite to Win NASCAR Race this Weekend: GEICO 500 Betting Analysis and Picks

Favorite to Win NASCAR Race this Weekend: GEICO 500 Betting Analysis and Picks

Written by on April 19, 2024

Another big weekend of racing is upon us, with the Cup Series drivers heading to the iconic Talladega track for the running of the Geico 500

MyBookie Motor Racing | 2024 NASCAR Live Betting | NASCAR Cup Series: GEICO 500

Hard as it may seem to believe, the season is moving fast with this one representing the 10th race of the season. It is, as you would expect at this stage of the proceedings, a tight battle at the top of the driver standings, with the leader and the #5 driver separated by a mere 38 points. While finishing at the top of the standings is important for some, the reality is that the regular season is all about picking up the points required to stay above the playoff cut line. With things this tight, a couple of bad races can see a driver heading in the wrong direction rather quickly. They will all be looking to avoid that fate this weekend, but we can have only one winner. We are about to look at the current NASCAR odds to win the Geico 500, but keep in mind that you can also wager on the top finishers, so be sure to check that out.

NASCAR Race Odds and Favorites to Win GEICO 500

  • Ryan Blaney +1075
  • Denny Hamlin +1100
  • Brad Keselowski +1100
  • Joey Logano +1100
  • William Byron +1150
  • Chase Elliott +1175

 

Ryan Blaney

You see Blaney down in the #7 spot in the driver standings right now and you don’t automatically think of him as a favorite to win. This is especially true when you consider that he is still looking for his first win of the 2024 season. That said, it is often past performances on a particular track that make bookies favor one driver over another. In terms of Talladega, you need to consider Blaney a real threat given what he did on this track last year. He finished 2nd in this race before going on to win at Talladega in the playoffs. That is more than enough to make him a good pick, even if you do just decide to take him for a podium finish.

Ryan Blaney Lines to Win NASCAR this Week
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Denny Hamlin

It has been something of an inconsistent start to the season for Hamlin, but you also have to remember that he has already won a pair of races, so he is a driver that you can never truly ignore. He heads to Talladega this weekend having shown similar form on that track. In this particular race, he has failed to crack the top 15 in each of the last 2 seasons, but during that same stretch, he also has a pair of top 5 finishes at Talladega in the playoffs. Will that trend continue on Saturday or are we going to see him flip the script? While I’d be nervous about playing him to win, a top 5 finish might not be out of the question.

Denny Hamlin Lines to Win NASCAR this Week
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Brad Keselowski

It’s probably still too early in the season for drivers to think about hitting the panic button, but you also cannot get away from the fact that if the season were to end today, Keselowski would be out of the playoffs. Right now, he is sitting in the #17 spot, and while he has had a couple of podium finishes, he has, for the most part, not really been much of a factor in the majority of races this season. Still, despite all that, he might still be able to get the job done here, since he won at Talladega in 2021 and finished 5th in this race last season. This still, though, feels like a bit of a longshot pick to me.

Brad Keselowski Lines to Win NASCAR this Week
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Joey Logano

Logano ended the 2022 season as the Cup Series champion, but it has been tough sledding since then. He did make it to the playoffs last year, but he went out early, finishing in 12th overall. This year has been something of a struggle, too, as he has failed to win a race and currently finds himself down all too close to the playoff cut line, albeit with plenty of time to make a move in the right direction. His current form is enough to make me look elsewhere for a wager, but I am even more convinced of that when looking at his most recent performances at Talladega. In his last 4 races on this track, his best finish has been 24th. It is a hard pass from me on Logano.

Joey Logano Lines to Win NASCAR this Week
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William Byron

This is a driver that has been steadily improving in each of his 6 years with the Cup Series. After cracking the top 10 for the first time in 2022, Byron made it all the way to the Championship Round last season before ultimately settling for 3rd overall. While he will obviously have been disappointed at not winning it all, that run must surely have served a warning to the other drivers that he is a force to be reckoned with. He is living up to that billing this season, as he comes into Race 10 of the year with the most wins (3) in the Cup Series. He has been red hot over the past month, winning 2 of 4 races and finishing in the top 10 in the other 2. He ran 7th and 2nd, respectively, at Talladega last season, so he is definitely a driver that I would be looking at to be among the top finishers this weekend. In fact, I’m going to go as far as making him my pick for this race.

William Byron Lines to Win NASCAR this Week
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Chase Elliott

After missing 7 races through injury or suspension, Elliott found it almost impossible to get any kind of rhythm going last season, failing to win a race and ultimately missing out on the playoffs. That had to sting for a guy that had 3 straight trips to the Championship Round and a Cup Series win to his name in the 3 seasons prior. He struggled a little in the early part of this season, failing to crack the top 10 in each of the first 4 races, but he seems to be getting into a groove now. He has been in the top 5 in the last 3 races and picked up his first win of the season last weekend. He won in Talladega in 2022, so it is not that hard to imagine him keeping his top 5 streak alive on Sunday.

Chase Elliott Lines to Win NASCAR this Week
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NASCAR Cup Series Toyota GEICO 500 Info

When: Sunday, April 21 at 3:00pm ET
Where: Talladega Superspeedway, Lincoln, Alabama
TV / Streaming: FOX
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM
Qualifying: Saturday, April 20, 10:30 am ET

 
Top 3 Driver Standings
Pos Driver Points Team
1 Kyle Larson 335 Chevrolet
2 Martin Truex Jr. 318 Toyota
3 Denny Hamlin 307 Toyota
Manufacturer Standings
Pos Team Points
1 Chevrolet 338
2 Toyota 322
3 Ford 297
 
Las Vegas Odds for NASCAR Race Sunday
MyBookie NASCAR Lines for the Race
 
 
 

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2023 NASCAR Odds for GEICO 500
 

This weekend in Talladega, we will see the 10th race of the current Cup Series season. As you might expect in the early going, things are tight at the top, as well as down near the playoff cut line. Yes, it’s a little silly to be talking about the playoffs at this stage of the season, but you can bet that the drivers down near the line will already have it in the back of their minds. After all, the goal of every driver is to win a championship, which can only happen if they end the season in the top 16. The playoffs are still a long way off, so our focus is on nothing but the next race up, which is the Geico 500 at Talladega this coming Sunday. Let’s take a quick look at the NASCAR betting analysis and who the bookies like in this one.

 

NASCAR Cup Series: GEICO 500 | NASCAR Lines

When: Sunday, April 23 at 3:00 pm ET
Where: Talladega Speedway
TV / Streaming: FOX
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM

 

Joey Logano

NASCAR Odds: +1075

If we are being honest, Logano looks to be a bit of a strange favorite this weekend given that he has not been particularly great at Talladega in recent runs. Yes, he had a 3rd place run there a couple of years back, but in the 3 other races there over the last couple of years, he has struggled to even crack the top 25. The reality, though, is that you can never really count the defending champion out of any race, especially when he is coming off a solid 2nd place finish last weekend. Still, I would need more than just that to play him to win on Sunday.

 

Ryan Blaney

NASCAR Odds: +1175

Blaney comes from a legendary racing family, but he is currently trying to carve out his own path in the sport. He has made it into the playoffs in 4 straight seasons, but he has yet to make it past the Round of 8, so the goal in 2023 will almost certainly be to take that next step. As it stands right now, Blaney is sitting in 10th in the driver standings and still looking for his first win of the season. That would make me nervous about playing him to win this weekend, but after a podium finish at Talladega last year, a top 5 wager might not be a bad idea.

 

Chase Elliott

NASCAR Odds: +1300

The rest of the season is going to be all about Elliott playing catch up after missing 6 races due to an injury sustained off the track. His return last weekend was more about trying to get back up to speed than anything else. In the grand scheme of things, his return to the track has to be seen as a success, as he managed to finish in the top 10 and pick up some much-needed points. He will be looking for better this Sunday, though, and might just do that. He had a win and a 7th place finish at Talladega last season, so a top 5 finish is not out of the question.

 

Denny Hamlin

NASCAR Odds: +1325

Hamlin is a driver with a huge following and a very solid legacy in the Cup Series. The one thing that is missing, though, is a championship, although he has been close, making it into the top4 on no less than 6 occasions over the years. That championship eludes him, but he is once again hanging around in the top 10 in the driver standings despite not yet picking up a win this season. He is a bit of a longshot here, but he has been decent at Talladega and might be worth a top 5 look.

 
 

 

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