Which Trends Could Help Predict March Madness Surprises?

 

Previous Betting News

Selection Sunday for the Men’s NCAA College Basketball Tournament is March 18. That gives us about a month before the most exciting sporting event of the year tips-off. A month sounds like a long time to prepare, but when it comes to March Madness, it’s really not!

Check out some March Madness trends that should help us put together a strong strategy heading into the NCAA Tournament. Don’t forget to keep reading for the 5 college basketball teams that are killing it against the spread.

NCAA Basketball Betting Trends & Stats Could Help Predict 2019 March Madness

Top Trends for March Madness

Favorites aren’t great against the spread

If you like to back favorites, you could lose your shirt in Round 1. Favorites don’t perform well against the spread because lines are often off. In Round 1, teams that have no clue about each other face-off. That means favorites end up losing against the spread while eking out a straight up win.

In 2017, favorites went 14-15-1 ATS in Round 1. In 2016, favorites went 15-16 ATS.

Dogs can often win on the moneyline

In the NCAA Tournament, underdogs can often win on the moneyline. Even underdogs that don’t appear to have any shot can beat their opponents on the moneyline. The key to finding underdogs is to look at shooting percentage allowed.

Favorites often average more points than their underdog counterparts. However, if the dog has a better shooting percentage allowed than the favorite, they’ll have a good shot to win the game. Shooting percentage allowed tells us if the team will instill its style of play.

In basketball, the team that instills its style of play has a much better shot of winning outright as a dog than a team that gets caught up in the favorite’s style of play.

Teams that mustn’t travel too far often cover

It goes without saying that the closer you play at home, the better your chances of showing up in the NCAA Tournament. Once seeds are set, look for underdogs that play their more heralded opponents closer to home. You’re going to find a few dogs that should  score big profits on the moneyline.

Favorites that play close to home are also likelier to cover.

When facing double-digit spreads, dogs perform better

The higher the spread, the better the underdog performs ATS. This makes sense because the underdog has more points to work with. But, don’t just settle on backing double-digit does in the NCAA Tournament against the spread. Also consider backing them on the moneyline.

Top 10 Sure Thing NCAA Tournament Teams Against the Spread

Which teams should garner 1-seeds?

Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Virginia are on their way to 1-seeds. However, Virginia lost straight up to UMBC in the only 1 vs 16 upset in tournament history last season. The Selection Committee might not give Virginia a 1-seed.

That could be to UVA’s benefit. Tony Bennett’s squad still possesses the best defense of any team in college hoops. Make sure to circle UVA as a potential favorite to back against the spread. The only team that’s stuck with Virginia this season is Duke, who beat the Cavaliers twice.

It’s unlikely Virginia faces Duke until deep in the tournament.

 

 

Previous Betting News

March Madness is right around the corner, frankly the only time that most casual bettors care about college basketball. If I knew which team was going to win the national title, I’d probably not tell you, bet it myself and go retire on a yacht. Sadly, I don’t know but here are some March Madness betting trends to keep in mind come the Big Dance.

Betting Trends & Stats That Could Help Predict 2018 March Madness

Don’t Bet On a Final Four Newbie Coach

The NBA is a players’ league – it largely doesn’t matter who the coach is. If you have a superstar on your roster, you have a legitimate shot to win it all in the NBA. Nowadays, you generally need two. The best players in college basketball don’t always cut down the nets. But the best coaches do.

Since 1990, the only coaches to win on their first trip to the Final Four are Jim Harrick (UCLA, 1995), Tubby Smith (Kentucky, 1998), Jim Calhoun (UConn, 1999), Bill Self (Kansas, 2008) and Kevin Ollie (UConn, 2014). Of course, last year’s champion was North Carolina, and Roy Williams is a Hall of Famer who had plenty of Final Four (and national title) experience at both Kansas and North Carolina.

One school that stands out in this regard is Arizona, which is +1000 at MyBookie.ag to win it all. The Cats have as much talent as anyone – maybe the second-most overall behind Duke. But Sean Miller is arguably the best active coach to never reach a Final Four. In last year’s tournament, heavily favored Arizona was knocked off in the Sweet 16 by Xavier. It almost looked as if Arizona was unprepared. The Wildcats were noticeably more nervous and disjointed against Xavier than they had been for most of the season. Arizona’s best offensive player, 7’0” freshman center Lauri Markkanen, didn’t touch the ball for the final 11 minutes. He’s now a star rookie with the Bulls.

Miller has knocked very hard at the Final Four door four times by reaching the Elite Eight –  three times at Arizona and once at Xavier. During his seven seasons at Arizona, he has taken his team to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend five times.

Another coach who falls into this category would be Tony Bennett of top-ranked Virginia. The Wahoos are +500 to win the first national title in school history. They haven’t reached a Final Four since 1984.

Rankings Do Matter

The AP Poll does matter when it comes to picking an eventual national champion. Want proof? In 21 of the last 25 years, the national champion has been ranked in the top 10 of the final AP poll in January. Then again, in three of the last five seasons, the national champion was ranked outside of the AP top 10 (North Carolina in 2017, UConn in 2014 and Louisville in 2013) at the end of January.

The teams in the last AP Top 10 for January were Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke, Michigan State, Xavier, Kansas, Cincinnati, Arizona and Texas Tech. Which of those schools are led by coaches who have never reached the Final Four? I mentioned Arizona and Virginia. Also, Xavier, Purdue, Cincinnati and Texas Tech.

No Big Ten, Pac-12 Or Mid Major

Can you believe the Big Ten hasn’t won a national title since Michigan State did in 2000? That team was led by the “Flintstones” – Flint natives Mateen Cleaves, Morris Peterson and Charlie Bell. This year’s best player is sophomore Miles Bridges. He’s also from Flint.

The Pac-12 hasn’t had a champion since Coach Lute Olson’s team in 1997. When the Oregon Ducks beat Kansas in a regional final last season, they became the first team from the Pac-12 to make a Final Four since 2008. Oregon would lose to North Carolina.

Stanford made the Final Four in 1998, but fell to Kentucky in a national semifinal. (Utah lost to Kentucky in the title game that season, but the Utes were not in the conference at that time). In 2001, Arizona made a run to the National Championship Game, but fell to Duke in the final. UCLA made the NCAA Championship final in 2006, but lost to Florida. The Bruins returned to the Final Four in 2007, but fell to Florida in a national semifinal. UCLA got back again in 2008 but lost to Memphis in a semifinal.

The only Pac-12 school I give any shot this year is Arizona. I believe Purdue and Ohio State are overrated in the Big Ten but the Spartans have a chance.

Meanwhile, no team from outside a Power 6 conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 & SEC) has won it all since that absolutely stacked UNLV team in 1990. Of course, the Rebels made it all the way to the following season’s Final Four without a loss but were upset by Duke.

 

 

Previous Betting News

If you’re looking for college basketball betting lines statistics and trends that could help you help you in your quest for March Madness betting success, then you’ve come to the right place.

Thanks to the expert collegiate hoops analysis that you’re about to get, you’re going to have a great idea of which trends you should be paying attention to most and which ones likely won’t mean much in terms of your tournament betting success. Let’s get started.

Which Betting Trends & Stats Could Help Predict March Madness Surprises?

Straight-Up (SU) Trends

Favorites have gone 2148-745 this season to win a whopping 74.2 percent of their games this season. Remember, picking SU winners is a lot easier than picking ATS winners.

However, you should know that away favorites have gone 567-250 to win 69.4 percent of the time. This is a great stat to know and one that should prompt you to look for tourney teams that have fared well on the road this season.

 

Against-The-Spread (ATS) Trends

You may not have known it, but underdogs have gone 1422-1413-58 this season for an impressive 50.1 percent winning mark. In addition to that, away favorites have brought home the bacon a stellar 52.2 percent of the time this season (416-380-21) while road underdogs have also excelled by going 1042-997-37 (51.1%).

While there are no official ‘home or away’ games in the March Madness tournament, the fact of the matter is that there really are, particularly early on when many of the top regional seeds will be playing in or near their home courts with fans rooting for them in abundance. Teams that play steady basketball no matter where the tip-off takes place are clearly very attractive heading into March Madness.

Over/Under (O/U) Trends

51.78 percent of all non-overtime games this season (1,396) have finished under the total but 50.4 percent of all games this season have finished Over the O/U Total. If the O/U Total on your March Madness matchup looks borderline close, apparently you should play the Over.