College Football Odds Picks for Week 3: Top O/U Analysis and Predictions

 

Previous Betting News

Yes, it’s still very early in the season and things can change dramatically from week to week, but you have to say that some of the early favorites to win a National Championship look more than a little vulnerable. The perfect example of that is Alabama, who needed a late, late FG to get past Texas in what was admittedly a rather hostile environment. On the flipside, the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs might actually look a little better than they were last season, which is a scary prospect for anyone set to go up against them in the coming weeks. We are not planning on looking too far ahead at this point, so let’s stick to the upcoming games in Week 3 to see if we can track down some winning NCAAF Betting picks. For the purposes of this piece, we are focusing on the O/U, so let’s get to it.

NCAAF Week 3 O/U Betting Picks | 2022 College Football Analysis

Charlotte 49ers Vs Georgia State Panthers (U60)

Something has to give here, as both of these teams are desperate to get their first win of the season after going a combined 0-5 SU to start. Georgia State is a pretty firm favorite on home field, but we are concerned with the point total here, which is set at a rather lofty 60 points. 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER, and while that in itself might be enough to get you wagering that way, there is even more convincing evidence to suggest that the UNDER is the way to go. The Panthers have seen the UNDER hit in each of their last 4 home games as well as in their last 4 against a team with a losing record.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Vs LSU Tigers (U53 ½)

We all love a great SEC matchup, which is exactly what we are getting here. Mississippi State is out to a fast start to the season, winning their opening 2 games, while the LSU Tigers are sitting at 1-1 and in need of a win to keep their season on the rails. While I don’t necessarily think that this will dissolve into a defensive struggle, I do think that the Tigers are going to try and tighten things up at home in an effort to get that much-needed win. The Bulldogs have seen 4 of their last 5 games played in the month of September fall UNDER the point total, which plays into what I am saying about this matchup being a tight affair.

South Alabama Jaguars Vs UCLA Bruins (O59 ½)

Both of these teams come into Week 3 on a bit of a high after winning their opening 2 games of the season. I think it’s safe to say, though, that the Jaguars are going to see their perfect start to the 2022 season come to an end this weekend with a very tough trip to face the UCLA Bruins on the cards. The question here is whether these two teams can combine to take the point total OVER, which I believe they will. The South Alabama Jaguars have seen the OVER hit in their last 4 games following an ATS win, while the OVER has hit in 7 of the last 9 that UCLA has played against a team with a winning record.

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Previous Betting News

And just like that, we are on to third week of the college football season. And as usual, we have our best OVER/UNDER NCAA Football betting lines for the weekend readied for you below.

Analyzing The Best College Football Week 3 OVER/UNDER Picks

Oregon at Nebraska, Saturday, September 17, 3:30 PM ET

Pick: OVER 73

The Oregon Ducks, in spite of winning their first two games of the season, have been rather vulnerable in defending the run, something Oregon’s head coach Mark Helfrich was keen to admit after his team allowed a number of big running plays and got gashed for 193 rushing yards against Virginia last week. This weakness sets up a good opportunity for the Cornhusker to put up some solid points against the Ducks. Besides Tommy Armstrong’s ability to make plays aerially (the QB has tallied 485 passing yards and four touchdowns through his first two games), the Cornhuskers have tallied 430 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns (averaging 4.6 yards per carry) in their two games. This unit should be very capable of exploiting Oregon’s vulnerabilities in pass rushing as well as in defending the run, especially in the middle of their defense. Meanwhile, Dakota Prukrop (602 passing yards and 6 passing TDs plus 55 rushing yards and 1 running TD) should be able to continue his strong career start at Oregon, alongside veteran stars like RB Royce Freeman. And on top of everything, the OVER has been a dominant trend for both teams, with the total going OVER in 13 of Nebraska’s last 19 games and the total also going OVER in 5 of Oregon’s last 6 games. With that in mind, Oregon (48.50 PPG scored) and Nebraska (47.50 PPG scored) should be able to combine for a highly likely OVER total this Saturday.

Georgia Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers, Saturday, September 17, 7:30 PM ET

Pick: UNDER 53

After what has looked an eternity of offensive futility, it appears as if the Tigers have found their leader in sophomore quarterback in Drew Lock. Coming off a 280-yard, 1-TD performance with zero TDs in Mizzou’s season-opening loss to West Virginia, Lock went 24-of-37 passing yards for 450 passing yards (30 yards short of a school record) and 5 TD passes (tied for a school record)in Mizzou’s lopsided 40-point win over Eastern Michigan. The Tigers, who amassed 647 yards of total offense vs. EMU—the most since Sept. 17, 2011—will be hoping for a continued efficiency from the Lock-led offense. There’s just one problem with these hopes; the Tigers will be facing a solid Georgia defense that has held them to 6 and 0 points over the past two seasons, with the total going UNDER in those two meetings. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs, who are 2-0 UNDER the total this season, have been struggling to implement their triple-threat offense, virtually getting no production from their passing game and defenses planning better to keep Nick Chubb and his running buddies quiet. That’s something the Tigers—who are a renowned defense-first team with stifling players in the O and D lines—should be able to take advantage of. Add to the fact that both teams love to dominate time of possession with lengthy plays, and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of Missouri’s last 14 games; it goes without saying that a low-scoring UNDER total looks very likely here.

Texas at California, Saturday, September 17, 10:30 PM ET

Pick: OVER 76.5

In one of the rare coincidences of the week, Texas and Cal enter Week 3 with each of the two teams averaging exactly 45.50 PPG scoring through the first two games of the season, a scoring mark that is tied for 22nd-best in the nation. And after putting up 50 points in the season-opening upset win over then-#10 Notre Dame and then totaling 41 points over UTEP last week, you don’t have to be a genius to figure out that the Shane Buechele-led Longhorns have the potential to put up another high-scoring effort over the leaky Golden Bears’ defense (ranked at 109th in the country with 38. PPG allowed). This defense was torched for 30 points vs. Hawaii in Week 1 and 45 points in last week’s loss at San Diego, so it stands to reason that Texas will get the job done offensively. Conversely, Cal’s QB Davis Webb has looked every bit like his predecessor Jared Goff in the offense, passing for a whopping 963 yards in just two games—which is good for second-most in the nation—to go along with 9 passing TDs. Webb’s strong passing skills and a strong group of receivers in Cal, led by star WR Chad Hansen (28 receptions, 350 receiving yards and 3 TDs), is the reason why the Bears’ air-raid offense rank second-best in the country with 4815 passing yards per game. Add that to the favorable trends such as the total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas’s last 6 games, and the total has also gone OVER in 5 of California’s last 6 games; a really high-scoring game (most likely north of 80 points) can be expected here.

Iowa State at TCU, Saturday, September 17, 12:00 PM ET

Pick: OVER 61

Things got from bad to worse for the Cyclones, who followed their 25-20 home loss to Northern Iowa with a shameful ISU’s offense was no-show in last week’s 42-3 road loss at the Iowa Hawkeyes. And from the sweeping look of their schedule, things won’t be getting any easier for the Cyclones in their bid for their first win of the year, as they will be taking on the Horned Frogs this coming weekend. TCU owns a solid offense that is averaging 48.50 PPG scoring this season, so beating ISU and its shaky offense shouldn’t be a biggie. Fortunately for the Cyclones, TCU has its share of vulnerabilities in the defense, allowing 41 PPG and 400 total yards per game. Essentially, that’s the reason TCU’s the total has soared above the set OVER mark by a nation-leading combined 62 points (averaging at 31 PPG) this season, including the 48-38 loss to Arkansas last week that went well above the OVER 58 total. With TCU capable of putting up 50-plus points on ISU while the Cyclones also score at least three TDs against the leaky Horned Frogs’ defense; we definitely love the ISU at TCU game to go OVER.

 

 

Previous Betting News

If you’re a college football betting fan that likes making Over/Under total wagers that remove the guesswork from often arduous ATS picks, then you’re going to be enjoy the trio of expert Over/Under Total picks that you’re about to get on three intriguing Week 3 matchups.

NCAA Football Week 3 Over/Under Betting Picks

Kent (1-1) at No. 10 Penn State (2-0)

When: Saturday, September 15, 2018 at 12:00 PM ET
Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania
Total: 63.5

Kent State got man-handled in their 31-24 Week 1 road loss to Illinois but they bounced back nicely to rout Howard 54-14 this past weekend as quarterback Woody Barrett completed 13 of 27 passes for 156 yards with one touchdown and one interception while running back Jo-El Shaw rushed 12 times for 105 yards and three touchdowns.

Penn State completely obliterated Pittsburgh in their stunning 51-6 Week 2 win while easily covering the spread as a 7-point road favorite. The Nittany Lions put 45 points on the board against Appalachian State in their opener.

Prediction

The Over is 5-0 in Penn State’s last five games, 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games and 4-1 in their last 5 home games. The Nittany Lions are putting points on the board very well in the early going and I believe they’re going to come close to the Over/Under total in this contest by themselves.

NCAA Football Week 3 Pick: Over 63.5 Total Points

East Carolina at Virginia Tech

When: Saturday, September 15, 2018 at 2:30 PM ET
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Indiana
Total: 47.5

East Carolina bounced back from their 28-23 season-opening loss against North Carolina A&T to stun the North Carolina Tar Heels in their 41-19 Week 2 win on Saturday. Quarterback Nathan Elliott completed 22 of 38 passes without any touchdowns or interceptions but the Pirates racked up 220 rushing yards and four scores on the ground in the convincing win.

Virginia Tech moved to 2-0 on the season by smacking William and Mary around in their convincing 62-17 Week 2 win on Saturday. Quarterback Josh Jackson completed 12 of 16 passes for 217 yards with one touchdown and the Hokies rushed for 305 yards and seven scores on the ground in the win.

Prediction

The Over is 5-0 in East Carolina’s last five games, 5-1 in the Pirates last six games in the month of September and 9-4 in their last 13 games overall. The Over is also 5-0 in Virginia Tech’s last five games against teams from the ACC and 15-6-1 in their last 22 games against non-conference opponents.

The Way the Hokies have been lighting up the scoreboard and the way East Carolina looked last weekend makes me think the Over 47.5 total points in this Week 3 affair is an absolute lock!

NCAA Football Week 3 Pick: Over 47.5 Points

Vanderbilt (2-0) at Notre Dame (2-0)

When: Saturday, September 15, 2018 at 2:30 PM ET
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Indiana
Total: 52

Vanderbilt moved to 2-0 on the season by pounding Nevada en route to a convincing 41-10 win on Saturday. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur completed 23 of 32 passes for 258 yards with two TD passes while running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn rushed 11 times for 93 yards and two scores.

Notre Dame remained unbeaten by beating Ball State 24-16 in Week 2 despite failing to cover the chalk as a whopping 34.5-point favorite. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush passed for 297 yards and three touchdowns to lead the way to victory.

Prediction

The Under is 6-0 in Notre Dame’s last six games and 5-0 in their last five games against a team with a winning record. The Under is also 6-0 in Vanderbilt’s last six non-conference games and 10-4-2 in their last 16 games in the month of September. I’m going with the Under for this week 3 matchup!

NCAA Football Week 3 Pick: Under 52 Total Points