2024 Kentucky Derby Trifecta, Superfecta & Exacta Betting Picks and Analysis

Previous Betting News

The best way to play the trifecta, superfecta, and exacta in any horse race, not just the Kentucky Derby, is to use a key horse. By using a key horse, you can ensure you control how much you invest into each ticket. Check out Kentucky Derby exacta, trifecta, and superfecta picks so you can get all set to place your bets against the Kentucky Derby Odds. 

Horse Racing Odds: Kentucky Derby Trifecta, Superfecta & Exacta Betting Picks

2022 Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 7
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock

Kentucky Derby Trifecta, Superfecta & Exacta Picks

Derby Key Horse: 1-Mo Donegal

Mo Donegal is the perfect key horse. The Uncle Mo sired and Wood Memorial winning runner should have no trouble breaking from post-position 1 now that Churchill Downs has ditched the auxiliary gate and gone to a single gate.

Mo will break about 3 to 4 paths away from the rail. So jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who has yet to win the Kentucky Derby, should have no trouble getting the Todd Pletcher trainee into a good position around the first turn. 

Derby Exacta Play: 3-Epicenter, 6-Messier, 10-Zandon, 12-Taiba

Epicenter and Zandon are the two chalks. Both have run great heading into the race. It makes sense to add both favorites to your exacta ticket. 

Messier and Taiba finished second and first in the Santa Anita Derby. Both can win this race. 

Exacta Betting Tips

Make sure to reverse your exacta bet for less. So if you play a $6 exacta with your key horse on top of 3 other horses, reverse for $4, $3, or $2. By reverse we mean place your 3 horses in first slot with your key horse in second.  

Kentucky Derby Trifecta Play

Trifecta Slot 1: 1-Mo Donegal
Trifecta Slot 2: 3-Epicenter, 6-Messier, 10-Zandon, 12-Taiba
Trifecta Slot 3: 3-Epicenter, 6-Messier, 8-Charge It, 10-Zandon, 11-Pioneer of Medina, 12-Taiba, 13-Simplification, 19-Zozos

Add no more than 4 other horses in your trifecta. You could decide to push the all button in the trifecta, but it’s going to cost more than you realize because there are 4 horses in slot 2.

By adding just 4 horses, you can keep your investment low. The four horses we like on our ticket are Charge It, the Tapit sired runner that finished in the Florida Derby, Pioneer of Medina, which trainer Todd Pletcher believes can step it up on May 7, Simplification, who can run close to the pace or well off, and Zozos, who should be a part of the pace and will have a shot to finish in the tri as they turn for home. 

Trifecta Betting Tips

How many trifecta tickets you play depends on how much you like your key horse. If you love your key horse, go for it by placing your key horse in all 3 trifecta slots.

If you’re not so sure, keep your money in your pocket or play a single trifecta ticket with your horse on top and hope for the best. 

Kentucky Derby Superfecta Play

Superfecta Slot 1: Mo Donegal
Superfecta Slot 2: 3-Epicenter, 6-Messier, 10-Zandon, 12-Taiba
Superfecta Slot 3: 3-Epicenter, 6-Messier, 10-Zandon, 12-Taiba
Superfecta Slot 4: 3-Epicenter, 6-Messier, 8-Charge It, 10-Zandon, 11-Pioneer of Medina, 12-Taiba, 13-Simplification, 19-Zozos

Superfecta Betting Tips

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, it’s best to play a single super ticket. Playing more than one can cost you more money than you may want to invest.

Hitting the super is ultra-difficult in a race with 20 horses. So don’t overthink it, roll with the ponies you like to fill out your trifecta, use your exacta key horse and cross your fingers.  

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?

Bet Kentucky Derby Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the races

Previous Betting News

Favorites have raced well at the Kentucky Derby in recent years. But because Bob Baffert is banned from racing at Churchill Downs, this year’s Kentucky Derby could produce an overlay winner. Right now, prices on the MyBookie site are all over the place. Check out Kentucky Derby odds and Horse Racing Betting predictions a couple of months from 2022’s first Triple Crown race. 

Updated 2022 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds and Predictions | March 9th Edition

2022 Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 7
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

2022 Kentucky Derby Odds

Don’t bet on any Bob Baffert trained runners

Before getting to the picks, it’s important to note that even if they lift the ban on Baffert’s horses, they may or may not qualify for the Run for the Roses. 

Churchill Downs hasn’t handed out points to Baffert 3-year-olds even when they finish in the top four, which means even if the ban is lifted, Corniche may not qualify to run in the Kentucky Derby. 

So don’t bet on any Baffert trained horse. Truth be told, they haven’t performed as well as many thought they would. So the +1200 on Corniche and Messier qualify as underlay odds. 

Top Pick: Simplification +1600

Epicenter is superfast and calls Not This Time his sire just like Simplification. The difference is that Epicenter is a confirmed front runner who won’t have much shot against Forbidden Kingdom, our second choice.

Simplification went 6-wide along the backstretch in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Not only that, but he closed against an over 48 seconds half-mile, which means the Antonio Sano runner not only went wide, but also chased slow fractions on his way to an easy victory.

Simplification’s turn of foot is breathtaking. Right now, he’s much, much better than the +1600 odds indicate. 

Second Best: Forbidden Kingdom +1600

If Richard Mandella had a better record running Kentucky Derby horses, Forbidden Kingdom might be the choice. But Mandella doesn’t often get them ready for the Run for the Roses.

Still, the way this one dominated one of Baffert’s top 3-year-olds, Doppelganger, when winning the San Felipe Stakes is reason to believe he could be a freak. He’s super-fast early, but he doesn’t waste action, meaning Forbidden Kingdom doesn’t tire himself out.

If Mandella teaches this one to rate, he’ll be tough. In the Derby, Forbidden Kingdom should have no trouble cruising along and then grabbing the lead at the top of the stretch. Then, it should be whether he can get to the wire before Simplification catches him. 

Third Choice Based on Odds: Morello +1600

Epicenter’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, also puts the saddle on Morello. Of the two, Morello is the better choice. Sired by Classic Empire, the Gotham Stakes winner should have no trouble running and winning up to 1 ½ miles.

In the Gotham, Morello tracked pacesetter Dean’s List before switching leads and taking over in the stretch. When looking for Kentucky Derby winners, especially early on, we want to find horses like Morello which have a high-cruising speed and then switches leads easily.

So if you don’t believe Mandella teaches Forbidden Kingdom how to rate, and you don’t have faith that Sano can get a horse ready to win the Derby, consider backing the Gotham winner.  

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?

Bet Kentucky Derby Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the races

Previous Betting News

Derby superfecta payouts can be tremendous. The average payout the past few years has been over $30,000 for $2. This year, Churchill Downs has decided to lower the superfecta cost from $2 to $1. That will make it easier for many of us to play the Derby superfecta on Saturday. Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, May 1. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.

Horse Racing Betting Preview: Kentucky Derby Superfecta and Pick 4

2021 Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

Key Horse: 15-Rock Your World

The John Sadler trained and Santa Anita Derby winner has relished his time in Kentucky. Expect Rock Your World to either win the Derby gate-to-wire or right off. He’s the key horse for the 2021 Kentucky Derby superfecta. 

Horses to use in the second slot: 1-Known Agenda, 14-Essential Quality, 17-Highly Motivated

Florida Derby runner Known Agenda must make a trip from post-position 1. If jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. can do that, Known Agenda has as much of a shot of finishing second as Blue Grass Stakes winner Essential Quality.

Highly Motivated is the wildcard. Chad Brown trains. So we know the horse will be fit. If he’s good enough, he’s got the talent to win the Kentucky Derby.

Horses to use in the third slot: 1-Known Agenda, 14-Essential Quality, 17-Highly Motivated 

Horses to use in the fourth slot: 1-Known Agenda, 14-Essential Quality, 17-Highly Motivated and 19-Soup and Sandwich, 9-Hot Rod Charlie, 8-Medina Spirit, 18-Super Stock, 10-Midnight Bourbon, 11-Dynamic One, 6-O Besos, 7-Mandaloun, 5-Sainthood, 2-Like the King, 16-King Fury, 12-Helium, 3-Brooklyn Strong

We’re pushing the all button for the fourth slot. Too many times a massive longshot, the one horse dropped from the superfecta ticket, rolls across the finish line fourth. Don’t take a chance. Use All in fourth.

Your superfecta ticket should look like this.

15 w/1,14,17 w/1,14,17 w/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14, 16,17,18,19,20

The total cost should be $120 for $1.

If you decide to play a second ticket, put Rock Your World in the second slot. A superfecta ticket with Rock Your World finishing second will look like this:

1,14,17 w/15 w/1,14,17 w/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,16,17,18,19,20

Kentucky Derby Day Late Pick 4

The Derby Day late Pick 4 starts in Race 9 and ends with Race 12, the Kentucky Derby. Here’s a simple ticket you can play that won’t break your bankroll.

Race 9 – Grade 2 American Turf Stakes

2-Win from Within
4-Annex
7-Dyn O Mite
13-Scarlett Sky

Race 10 – Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes

1-Phat Man
2-Mind Control
5-Tap It to Win

Race 11 – Grade 1 Turf Classic

3-Colonel Liam
4-Ivar
5-Domestic Spending
8-Cross Border

Race 12 – Grade 1 Kentucky Derby

14-Essential Quality
15-Rock Your World

If you play this Pick 4 ticket, it will look like this.

2,4,7,13 w/1,2,5 w/3,4,5,8 w/14,15

The total cost for $1 should be $96.

Kentucky Derby Betting News

Previous Betting News

On Saturday, the best three-year-old horses in the world enter the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the 147th Kentucky Derby. Essential Quality is the 2/1 favorite while Rock Your World is at 5/1. Check out a Kentucky Derby and trifecta play that should pay handsome profits if it cashes.

Also, check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, May 1. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.

Horse Racing Betting Preview: Kentucky Derby Exacta and Trifecta

2021 Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

Key Horse: 15-Rock Your World

Your key horse isn’t always the horse you believe will win the race. In this case, Rock Your World, the Santa Anita Derby winner, should win. 

Two-speed horses, Caddo River and Concert Tour, pulled out of the race. That leaves Rock Your World either alone on the lead or tracking a soft pace right off Midnight Bourbon and Hot Rod Charlie. 

The John Sadler trained runner has the tools to win the Kentucky Derby. He’ll be in the best position turning for him, which is why he’s the exacta and trifecta key horse. 

Horses to Use in the Exacta: 1-Known Agenda, 14-Essential Quality, 17-Highly Motivated

Florida Derby winner Known Agenda, morning line chalk Essential Quality, and Chad Brown trained Highly Motivated should all fight for the place money. All have issues they must overcome as well.

Essential Quality may have to go wide around the first turn. Known Agenda must break from the dreaded post-position 1 and Highly Motivated must manage a trip from post-position 15. All three are talented enough to overcome those obstacles and get into the exacta. 

Horses to Use in the Trifecta: 1-Known Agenda, 14-Essential Quality, 17-Highly Motivated and 19-Soup and Sandwich, 9-Hot Rod Charlie, 8-Medina Spirit, 18-Super Stock, 10-Midnight Bourbon, 11-Dynamic One, 6-O Besos

Joining the three exacta horses on the bottom of the trifecta ticket are Soup and Sandwich, Hot Rod Charlie, Medina Spirit, Super Stock, Midnight Bourbon, Dynamic One, and O Besos.

Soup and Sandwich should run close to the lead. Even if he backpedals, depending on the pace, he may end up third. Hot Rod Charlie presses the pace like Soup and Sandwich. He too should be close enough so that even if he tires, he can pick up third.

Midnight Bourbon may lead the field into the first turn. The Steve Asmussen trained runner could carry his speed further in the Kentucky Derby than he has any of his previous races.

Super Stock may be the top longshot on the board. He exploded to overtake Concert Tour and Caddo River to win the Arkansas Derby. Super Stock is a must use in the multi-level exotics.

Medina Spirit, Dynamic One, and O’Besos are all good enough to get show money. Medina Spirit is interesting in that he’s Bob Baffert’s lone Kentucky Derby runner. 

How to play the Kentucky Derby exacta and trifecta 

Key 15-Rock Your World over the exacta horses. Reverse for less.

Key 15-Rock Your World over the exacta horses and then over the trifecta horses. If you want to play a second ticket, go 1-Known Agenda, 14-Essential Quality, and 17-Highly Motivated over 15-Rock Your World over the trifecta horses. 

The trifecta will cost some money to play. So if you don’t want to risk too much, don’t reverse.

Kentucky Derby Betting News

Previous Betting News

The 2019 Kentucky Derby is the only race this year in the United States that will have 20 horses. Because there are so many runners, ticket cost can get up there if horseplayers don’t use a key horse. After handicapping the race, the key horse looks to be Maximum Security. However, if you have a different key horse in mind, you can still use these exacta, trifecta, and superfecta ticket construction strategies. Just replace Maximum Security and the horses used here with your key horse and the horses you like for you Kentucky Derby betting ticket.

2019 Kentucky Derby Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta Picks

Key Horse: Maximum Security

The 2019 Florida Derby winner doesn’t seem to be a need the lead type. He should be in a good position along the backstretch and gets one of the hottest riders in the U.S. to take the call in Luis Saez. He shouldn’t be the favorite, either. That makes Maximum Security a logical key horse to build exacta, trifecta, and superfecta picks around.

Exacta Picks

• Key Horse: Maximum Security
• Using: Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach
• Spinoff – Trained by Todd Pletcher, he might have been short in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. He shouldn’t be short on the first Saturday in May. Not only that, but Spinoff should offer 20/1 or higher odds!
• Vekoma – He hould be the early leader. Plus, candy Ride sired him. So, there’s no reason to believe he won’t go the distance.
• Tacitus – The Bill Mott trainee won both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. He’s the most accomplished runner this year.
• Omaha Beach – He will likely go off the chalk. He beat Game Winner in the Rebel and Improbable in the Arkansas Derby.

Exacta Ticket

Maximum Security w/Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach

Reverse for less

Trifecta Picks

• Key Horse: Maximum Security
• Place Slot: Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach
• Show Slot: Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach + Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster, By My Standards, Tax, War of Will
• Game Winner – The two-year-old champ heads into this off two straight losses. He might have peaked in 2018, but he’s plenty good enough to get into the Top 3.
• Improbable – Bob Baffert put blinkers on him in the Arkansas Derby and he still didn’t win. Like Game Winner, he might have run his best as a 2-year-old. He can finish third, though.
• Roadster – He looked great in the Santa Anita Derby. But, he could bounce, and even if he doesn’t bounce, this could be too much too soon for him. Still, it’s hard to leave Roadster out of the show slot.
• By My Standards – He won the Louisiana Derby after breaking his maiden in the race before. He continues to get better and better. He could actually win on Saturday, but tickets become too costly if we include every horse we like.
• Tax – He only lost by 1 ¼ lengths to Tacitus in the Wood Memorial. He’s another that could win the roses. It’s impossible to include all of them in the place slot, though.
• War of Will – He lost action along the backstretch in the Louisiana Derby. He’s been training lights out and he must be considered a real contender to at least hit the board.

Trifecta Ticket

Maximum Security w/Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach w/Spinoff, Vekoma Tacitus, Omaha Beach, Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster, By My Standards, Tax, War of Will

Reverse Trifecta Ticket

Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach w/Maximum Security w/ Spinoff, Vekoma Tacitus, Omaha Beach, Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster, By My Standards, Tax, War of Will

Superfecta Picks

• Key Horse: Maximum Security
• Place Slot: Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach
• Show Slot: Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach
• Fourth Slot: Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach, Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster, By My Standards, Tax, War of Will + Haikal, Cutting Humor, Master Fencer, Win Win Win, Plus Que Parfait
• Haikal – He seems to be one of those closers who prefers a mile, maybe, 1 1/16 miles. However, he could surprise and finish fourth.
• Cutting Humor – The horse he beat in the Sunland Derby was terrible in the Lexington Stakes. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, though, which means he could run the race of his life on Saturday.
• Master Fencer – The Japanese runner has never faced these. Then again, he’s going to offer massive odds to hit the board. Instilled Regard finished fourth in last year’s Kentucky Derby and he went off 85/1.
• Win Win Win – He’s got the talent to win. However, he’ll have to make a trip and the horses in front of him, especially Vekoma and Maximum Security, are fast and have the lung capacity to get the trip.  
• Plus Que Parfait – War of Will drubbed the UAE Derby winner earlier in the year, but this one’s sire, Point of Entry, won races all the way up to 1 ½ miles. He’ll love the distance and like Master Fencer could offer ridiculous odds.  

Superfecta Ticket

Maximum Security w/Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach w/Spinoff, Vekoma Tacitus, Omaha Beach w/ Spinoff, Vekoma, Tacitus, Omaha Beach, Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster, By My Standards, Tax, War of Will, Haikal, Cutting Humor, Master Fencer, Win Win Win, Plus Que Parfait.

No Reverse

Kentucky Derby 2019 Racing News