Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Odds & Pick - Run for the Roses

Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Odds & Pick – Run for the Roses

Written by on September 3, 2020

The 146th Kentucky Derby happens on Saturday, Sep. 5. Odds are out on which horses have the best shot at wearing the garland of roses. As we might expect, Tiz the Law is a massive favorite. He’s more of a favorite to win the Derby than Secretariat was in 1973. Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, September 5. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.

Odds for the 146th Run for the Roses | Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Analysis

2020 Kentucky Derby Info

  • When: Saturday, Sep. 5 at 6:30 pm ET
  • Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
  • Weather: Sunny

146th Kentucky Derby Odds

  • Finnick the Fierce +8000
  • Max Player +4000
  • Enforceable +4000
  • Storm the Court +6600
  • Major Fed +5000
  • King Guillermo +2200
  • Money Moves +5500
  • South Bend +8000
  • Mr. Big News +10000
  • Thousand Words +1800
  • Necker Island +12500
  • Sole Volante +3300
  • Attachment Rate +5500
  • Winning Impression +12500
  • Ny Traffic +2500
  • Honor A.P. +650
  • Tiz the Law -150
  • Authentic +1000

Which horse is the better bet? Tiz the Law at -150, Authentic at +1000, or Honor A.P. at +650?

Of the three, Authentic is a throw out. The Bob Baffert trained son of Into Mischief has the resume to win the Kentucky Derby. He’s shown a single effective style, go to the front and take them to the wire. That won’t work in the Derby where Authentic must break from post-18 and then cross-over before the first turn.

It’s difficult to knock Tiz the Law even at the low odds. First, let’s put the odds in perspective. At -150, the odds might be fair. He proved in the Travers Stakes that he can get the distance. He also showed in the Travers that he can relax on a fast pace, take over when required, and then burst to the finish line. There are no knocks that we can see. So, if you want to bet on the chalk, go for it!

The horse that offers the fairest price based on his chances of winning is Honor A.P. Trained by John Shirreffs, Honor A.P. came on in the Shared Belief stakes deep in the stretch to just miss to Baffert trained Thousand Words.

The Santa Anita Derby winner has the breeding, Honor Code from Hollywood Story, to win the Derby. A.P. easily took the Santa Anita Derby and should get a decent pace in which to chase on Saturday. He’s the pick to win if you’re looking to back a favorite. 

Name a couple of underdogs at odds of +2500 or less that can beat Tiz the Law?

Ny Traffic at +2500 almost caught Authentic in the Haskell Invitational. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trained runner has improved with each of his four races this year. Another move forward makes him a tough horse to deal with on Saturday.

But like most in this field, he must hope that Tiz the Law doesn’t show up with his “A” game. Also, Saffie doesn’t have a reputation for getting horses ready for huge graded races like the Kentucky Derby. Finally, he isn’t bred to get the distance. 

The other player at decent odds is +1800 Thousand Words. The Shared Belief winner appeared to put it all together in that race. He took the lead ran a fast pace, and then held off talented Cezanne and Honor A.P. 

Like Ny Traffic, Thousand Words must improve, and Tiz the Law must take a backward step for him to win the Derby. Bob Baffert has done this before, though. In 2002, he unleashed War Emblem on an unsuspecting Derby field after that horse won a lower-level prep.  

Name an underdog at massive odds that can beat Tiz the Law?

Both Money Moves and Max Player have a chance. They don’t have great shots but they’ve both got a shot.

Money Moves comes from the Todd Pletcher barn. He’s lightly raced, was sired by Candy Ride, and has improved with every race. Max Player’s third in the Travers Stakes wasn’t awful. More importantly, he switches barns from Linda Rice to Steve Asmussen. 

Asmusssen has won the Preakness Stakes twice and the Belmont once. If any trainer can move Max Player up enough lengths to challenge Tiz the Law, it’s Steve Asmussen.

Good luck on Saturday!

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