Mets vs. Orioles

Mets vs. Orioles | MLB Betting Analysis

Written by on June 9, 2021

Matt Harvey was once arguably the most popular Mets player on the team but his career went downhill quickly in New York. Harvey is now trying to stay in the Show with the Baltimore Orioles and faces his former Mets team for the second time this season on Wednesday. New York is favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Mets at Orioles MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on New York? | MLB Betting Analysis

The Mets remain without second baseman Jeff McNeil, third baseman JD Davis and outfielders Brandon Nimmo Michael Conforto – all on the injured list.

Nimmo has started swinging a bat, but has not done so with any intensity yet. It’s a step in the right direction, but a small step for Nimmo — who has been sidelined since May 5 with his finger issue. After experiencing a setback on his minor league rehab assignment, the Mets are going to take every possible precaution this time around not to rush him back.

Davis is still wearing a splint on his injured hand and has not even started to take dry swings. He has been on the injured list since May 2 and doesn’t look like he’ll be returning any time soon. Jonathan Villar has largely been playing third with Davis out. McNeil (hamstring) is close to beginning a minor league rehab assignment. Conforto won’t be back until late this month with his hamstring issue – if then.

No question that Jacob deGrom is the Mets’ ace, but Taijuan Walker (4-2) has slotted in as the No. 2 and he’s on the mound here. Walker was charged with four runs (three earned) over five innings last Thursday in a loss to the Padres.

Walker gave up seven hits, including a two-run homer to Fernando Tatis Jr. in the third inning and an RBI single to Jurickson Profar in the fourth inning. He managed only two strikeouts and also issued four walks.  Walker dropped a decision for the first time since April 20 and didn’t have his best stuff, as he had more walks than strikeouts for the first time this season while also tying his season-worst mark in runs allowed.

Even though Walker came back to earth in his last start, his ERA is still nearly a full run lower than his FIP (3.06). That suggests some more regression is possible, particularly if Walker can’t keep his walk rate (3.8 per 9 innings) in check. He still has an excellent 2.17 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 51/23 K/BB ratio across 54 innings (10 starts).

On May 12, Walker worked seven innings of one-run ball in the Mets’ 7-1 defeat of the Orioles. Walker scattered four hits and three walks while striking out four in the 97-pitch outing.

Why Bet on Baltimore? | MLB Betting Analysis

Outfielder Cedric Mullins is batting .372 when leading off an inning; his 32 hits leading off an inning are the most in the majors. His 2.5 WAR ranks as the fifth-best in the AL, according to STATS Platform. His five OAA (outs above average) and four runs prevented are tied for the second-most by a center fielder this season, according to Statcast. Trey Mancini leads the O’s with 76 hard-hit balls (batted balls with an exit velocity of 95+ MPH), the 11th-most in the AL. He’s also recorded 21 barrels; his barrels are tied for the 11th-most in the AL.

The Birds have center fielder Austin Hays and ace pitcher John Means on the injured list. Hays is out with a hamstring injury. The 25-year-old had a .252/.319/.455 batting line with five homers, 15 RBI, and 24 runs in 32 games played.

Means was put on IL with a left shoulder strain. The southpaw left last Saturday’s start after just 2/3 of an inning with shoulder fatigue and this trip to the injured list was a foregone conclusion in order to protect him. The 28-year-old was having a spectacular season, posting a 2.28 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 71 innings with a no-hitter mixed in.

It’s Matt Harvey here on the mound. Starting on three days’ rest, Harvey (3-6) was lifted after throwing three innings of one-run ball against the Twins last Wednesday. Harvey was fairly effective, with the only damage coming on a solo home run by Ryan Jeffers. He also generated seven swinging strikes on 43 total pitches. It was all the Orioles were hoping for from Harvey in a bullpen game. For the season, Harvey now has a 6.62 ERA with a 45:17 K:BB across 51.2 frames.

Harvey faces his former team, the Mets, for the second time in the span of a month. He was hit hard for seven runs against them at Citi Field on May 12, and he owns a 12.96 ERA in his past five starts. Harvey has made three starts against the NL East this season, going 1-2 with a 9.64 ERA (15 ER/14.0 IP), two walks, and 14 strikeouts.

Game Trends

  • Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Mets are 15-7 in their last 22 Wednesday games.
  • Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 interleague games.
  • Orioles are 17-37 in their last 54 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Orioles are 40-88 in their last 128 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Orioles are 16-39 in their last 55 during game 2 of a series.

Expert Prediction

  • Mets 7, Orioles 3

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