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Very important series in the AL Wild-Card chase begins Monday night as the Boston Red Sox visit the Seattle Mariners. It could be a Wild-Card preview. The Red Sox are favored for Monday’s opener on the MLB odds and for the series.

MLB Betting Analysis for Top Series of the Week

Must Bet MLB Series to bet From Monday to Wednesday

When: Monday-Wednesday
Where: T-Mobile Park
When: 10:10 pm ET first two games; 4:10 pm ET finale
Odds: Red Sox -155 for series, Mariners +135

Boston is currently tied with Toronto for the two AL Wild-Card spots. Seattle is three games back. Neither club is winning its division so it’s Wild Card or bust. Under the current 10-team playoff format, which began in 2012, the Red Sox have never played in the Wild-Card Game. They won the AL East in each of their 4 Postseason appearances during that time (2013, ‘16-18). The Sox have reached the postseason without winning the division 7 times (1998-99, 2003-05, 2008-09)

The Sox enter off a 2-1 loss at the White Sox on Sunday. DH and All-Star JD Martinez didn’t start for a third straight game due to back spasms and he’s questionable for this one. The Red Sox feature 6 players who have hit 20+ HR this season: Rafael Devers (33), Kyle Schwarber (29), Hunter Renfroe (27), Martinez (25), Bobby Dalbec (21), and Xander Bogaerts (20). The Sox are the only team featuring as many as 5 players with 50+ XBH (17 teams have 0 or 1). The Sox have averaged 5.7 runs per game at home (1st in AL), compared to 4.4 on the road (10th in AL).

Twelve of their players have been placed on the COVID-19 injured list over the past 2½ weeks, a list that includes six position players (Xander Bogaerts, Enrique Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, Jarren Duran, Danny Santana, Yairo Munoz), four relievers (Matt Barnes, Martin Perez, Hirokazu Sawamura, Josh Taylor) and two starters (Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale).

Seattle was upset 5-4 at home by Arizona on Sunday, its second straight loss. Rookie Jarred Kelenic homered for the second straight day in the loss. Kelenic crushed a two-run shot off of J.B. Wendelken in the ninth inning, pulling the Mariners to within a run. He finished the day 1-for-3 plus a walk and is now hitting .166/.246/.310 with 10 homers and 31 RBI in what has been a disappointing campaign for the 22-year-old outfielder.

Mitch Haniger is having a fine season with 32 homers, 79 RBIs and 98 runs scored, leading American League outfielders. With two more runs this season, Mitch would become the first Mariners outfielder to score 100 runs in a season since Ichiro Suzuki scored 103 in 2008. Kyle Seager is one of only nine players in the majors with at least 30 home runs and 90 RBIs this season and could soon become the first Mariner to go 30/100 since Nelson Cruz in 2017. Twenty-four of Seager’s 40 hits (6 doubles, 18 home runs) since the break have gone for extra bases. He is on pace for 39 home runs and 107 RBIs.

The Mariners have won a major-league-leading 30 one-run games, which has made up for their minus-57 run differential. They are the only AL team with a negative run differential and a winning record.

Monday’s pitching matchup is Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Seattle’s Logan Gilbert. Rodriguez (11-8, 5.15) lasted just 3 2/3 innings last Tuesday, getting pounded for six runs in a loss to the Rays. Even with that, he is 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA (16 ER/36.2 IP) in 7 starts since 8/1. Among AL pitchers with at least 100.0+ IP, he ranks 6th in SO/9.0 IP (10.50). Rodriguez is on pace for career bests in SO% (27.2), SO/BB (4.08), and FIP (3.55).

Gilbert (5-5, 5.10) surrendered two runs on six hits over 4 1/3 innings while taking a no-decision in last Tuesday’s 10-inning loss to the Astros. Nothing too flashy in this one. Gilbert struck out five and walked one in the short outing, with the two runs to touch home against him both coming in the third inning, in the form of a solo homer by Jose Altuve and an RBI double by Alex Bregman. This will be Gilbert’s first career start vs. Boston.