2024 MLB NL West Betting Analysis and Predictions

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We are less than a week away from the first spring training games of the season, so it really is time to start thinking about the MLB regular season and how things might play out. With that in mind, it’s the perfect time to start breaking down each division in an attempt to separate the pretenders from the contenders. It has to be said, though, that some divisions are a good deal easier to figure out than others. Over the past decade or so, the NL West has been one of the easiest to predict, but might we be about to see that change? Let’s take a look at the MLB odds as we try to predict how the final standings will look.

NL WEST Favorites to Win, Upsets, and Surprises for the 2023 Season | MLB Betting

LA Dodgers (-149)

Like we said at the top of this piece, this division has essentially belonged to one team for a decade, with the Dodgers winning it in 9 of the last 10 seasons. They are coming off a season where they had the best record in baseball at 111-51, yet this still feels as though they might be ready to take a backward step. The Dodgers lost Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, and Justin Turner this offseason, and while they brought in some veteran replacements, they got a little worse. Could their dominance be in danger this season?

San Diego Padres (+135)

If the Dodgers do indeed take a backward step this season, I believe the only team that is ready to take advantage of it is the San Diego Padres. Yes, they finished 22 games off the pace last season, but their 89-73 record was good enough to get them into the Wild Card. The Padres are stacked right now and in their best position to win a division title in quite some time. While it would not be a huge upset to see them win the division, I still think they spring the surprise and land on top.

San Francisco Giants (+1175)

The Giants played .500 ball last season, finishing with an 81-81 record that prompted many to believe that they might go big in the offseason. There were suggestions that they might win the Aaron Judge sweepstakes, but that did not pan out and they ended up making smaller moves that are unlikely to yield any real positive impact. This looks like a similar season as last year coming up, and perhaps even a bit of a slide.

Arizona Diamondbacks (+4700)

Unlike the Giants, the Arizona Diamondbacks took a deep dive into the free agent pool in the offseason and came out with some very solid additions, with Evan Longoria, Gabriel Moreno, and a few other big names heading to the desert. Now, whether those moves pay immediate dividends remains to be seen, and you do have to say that the high bar for the Padres this season is probably 3rd in the division.

Colorado Rockies (+15000)

The Rockies odds heading into the new season tells you all you really need to know about this team. This is a team that looks to be in full rebuild mode after another underwhelming offseason where they did little to improve their squad. If there is a safe bet in this division, it is taking the Rockies to finish dead last.

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Over the last few years, the NL West has been the easiest division to predict in all of baseball. The LA Dodgers seem to have a bottomless pit of money that they can draw on to lure in the best players in the game. While it has led to countless division titles, having a team full of stars does not always translate to championships, which the Dodgers can certainly attest to at this point. A new season is upon us, and it is no real surprise that the Dodgers are once again in as the favorite to win it. Will it be business as usual, or will we see an upset in the NL West? Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting analysis.

MLB NL West Season Predictions: Winner and Upset | MLB Odds & Lines

LA Dodgers (-131)

The Dodgers were the best team in the National League again last season, winning 111 games and topping the West with a 22-game lead when all was said and done. It was a fantastic regular season, but the Dodgers once again failed to carry that dominance over into the postseason. They are still a very good team heading into 2023, but the general consensus is that they will take a backward step this year and that the division will be tighter than it was in 2022, which, given how it ended, seems like a pretty safe bet. Still tough to look beyond the Dodgers in the West.

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San Diego Padres (+120)

The Padres went 89-73 last season, which was good enough to get them into the Wild Card. Not a bad season when you consider the division they play in, but with the talent they have in their lineup, the expectation is that they should deliver more this season. The Padres will be without Fernando Tatis Jr. to start the season as he finishes up his 80-game suspension, but he is scheduled to be back in late April. If they can get off to a good start with their star player out of the lineup, they might just get a boost when he returns. The Padres could be the upset team in the West in 2023.

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San Francisco Giants (+1175)

The Giants played .500 ball last season, ending the year at 81-81. This was not particularly surprising given that this team is one without any major stars in the lineup. They are not a horrible team by any stretch of the imagination, but they do seem like one that will be treading water until they add some star power. The best case scenario for the Giants would be a spot in the Wild Card, but even that seems like a bit of a risky bet.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+4100)

This is a team loaded with young prospects, especially pitchers, which means it’s tough to know what to expect. On the positive side, these young guys could all deliver the goods and sent the D-Backs on a chase for the Wild Card, but the flipside of that is that most are a bust, which would mean a long season. I think an above .500 finish this year would be a sign of progress.

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Colorado Rockies (+17000)

The MLB odds here tell you all that you need to know about the current state of the Colorado Rockies. They had 94 losses last year and I would not be surprised to see them surpass the 100-loss mark in 2023. They have a long way to go to get back into competitive mode.

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Not only did the NL West provide a lot of fireworks last season, but it was by far the most interesting division. A team that won over 100 games finished in second place in their division and was forced to play in a Wild Card game. Could we see that again this season?

The San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers led the race for the NL West title all season long. It was a two-horse race, and it very well may be that way again this season. The Los Angeles Dodgers got much better over the offseason with one trade. 

Will it take 107 wins to beat the rest of the division again this season? That said, let’s dig a little deeper into the NL West Division so you can make your bets against the MLB NL Division Odds.

NL West Season Predictions: Winner and Upset | MLB Betting

NL West Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers Potential Pick

The Los Angeles Dodgers played a great season last year, and it was still not enough to take down the San Francisco Giants. Over the offseason, they lost Max Scherzer to the New York Mets.

They did sign Freddie Freeman to a deal, and he will take over as the first baseman for the Dodgers. They also re-signed Clayton Kershaw and will add him back into the rotation. 

The Dodgers managed for most of the season and only received 11 starts out of Scherzer after the trade deadline. Walker Buehler will continue to lead the rotation, finishing with a 16-4 record in 33 starts last season. The first three pitchers will also include Kershaw and Julio Jurias, who were outstanding last season for the Dodgers. 

After the top three, the final two spots in the rotation may be changing quite a bit depending on who is available and who is pitching well at the time. Names like Andrew Heaney, Tony Gonsolin, David Price, and Tyler Anderson could fill those final two spots. 

From an offensive perspective, the Dodgers will be loaded. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, Trea Turner, I mean, should we continue? I feel bad for pitchers in the National League and in the NL West. 

The Dodgers did not lose a ton and did not overpay for Scherzer. That is a win within itself, and with the DH, they can use Max Muncy in that role. 

The Dodgers are going to be a force to be reckoned with in the 2022 season. 

Upset: San Diego Padres Potential Pick

This really may not be much of an upset, but this team thoroughly under-achieved last season. The San Diego Padres finished with a losing record at 79-83. They struggled down the stretch of the season and fell short of making the playoffs. 

They will be without Fernando Tatis Jr. for some time due to lingering injuries and issues from last season and through the offseason. That will hurt the team, but the Padres do have a solid pitching staff. They may have the best starting rotation in baseball with Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Mike Clevinger. 

San Diego did add a power bat by trading for Luke Voit, who can play first base and serve as the DH as well. If the Padres can find a way to compete with the Dodgers, it should be a very interesting season in the NL West. 

NL West Standings Predictions

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

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Entering the final days of the 2021 baseball regular season, there are only two division races up for grabs: The National League East and West. The Atlanta Braves have a slight lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East with Atlanta a -210 favorite on the MLB odds and the Phillies +155. The teams do have three games remaining against one another from Sept. 28-30 in Atlanta.

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The Braves are one of just four teams in baseball to not have a losing streak of more than five games this season. The Dodgers, Giants and Phillies are the others. Atlanta has not lost five straight games since dropping six straight spanning the 2020-21 seasons, and five straight spanning the 2018-19 seasons. The Braves have not lost five straight within a single season since six such spells in 2017.

Each of the Braves’ last 11 losses have been by one or two runs. They have seven one-run losses in this stretch and four two-run defeats.  The Braves run differential in losses this season is -206, which equates to an average defeat of 2.94 runs. That average margin of defeat is the second lowest in baseball. Only Los Angeles (NL) is lower at 2.44. Atlanta has 29 one-run losses of the season, the second-most such defeats in the majors. Only the Mets have more with 32.

The Braves are just 37-45 in games decided by one or two runs this season, a .451 winning percentage. From 2018-20, Atlanta went 96-66 (.593) in these games.

Since July 1, the Phillies are 36-8 (.818 win %) in games in which they score at least four runs and they have won 13 of their last 14 when doing so. Since July 1, the Phillies are 3-23 (.115 win %) when they score three runs or fewer and they have lost each of their last 13 when doing so. Overall, the Phillies are 62-22 (.738 win %) this season when they score at least four and they are 14-50 (.219 win %) when held to three or fewer.

The San Francisco Giants hold a one-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West with the Giants as -125 favorites and the Dodgers +105. Those teams have finished their season series.

If they finish with the same record, the Giants would host a one-game playoff on Oct. 4 because they won the season series 10-9. The loser would host the NL wild-card game Oct. 6, meaning that club would play three games in four days. The two NLDS are scheduled to begin Oct. 8. Here’s how close these clubs played in 2021: The Dodgers outscored the Giants head-to-head 80-78.

Dodger starting pitchers lead the Major Leagues in ERA (2.79), WHIP (1.02), opponents’ average (.205) and opponents’ OBP (.264). The Dodgers’ overall ERA is 2.54 in the second half, which is the club’s best post-All-Star break ERA since posting a 2.26 mark in 1976.

The Dodger pitching staff boasts three of the top arms in the Cy Young race with Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer and Julio Urías. The Dodgers trio is trying to join the 1927 Yankees as the only teams ever to have the top 3 pitchers in MLB in winning percentage at the end of a season (min. 15 decisions).

The Giants have 49 victories at Oracle Park this season. The last time the Giants won at least 50 games at home was 2009 when that club went 52-29. Since Oracle Park opened in 2000, the most victories a Giants team has accumulated at home during the regular season is 57 by the 2003 Giants.

Expert Picks: Braves win NL East, Dodgers take West

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Heading into this Tuesday’s MLB All-Star Game, the closest division battle is in the NL West where the Los Angeles Dodgers are a half a game ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks. In Major League Baseball terms, the Dodgers are about a whisker ahead of the D’Backs to the finish line.

The race between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks in the second half of the current MLB Season figures to be a huge story. Can the Dodgers maintain their whisker lead? Will the D’Backs rediscover their April form?

NL West:  Dodgers vs D’Backs is the Story

Let’s first analyze the L.A Dodgers. Then, we’ll get to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers’ World Series odds on MyBookie are at double-digits. The Dodgers’ odds have risen in just the past couple of days from +875 to +1000. The reason? MLB handicappers aren’t as bullish on LAD beating Arizona for the NL West Division the way they were just two weeks ago.

The hesitation makes sense. When the Dodgers marched to the NL Pennant last season, the bullpen ranked in the Top 3 in Team ERA. This season, the Dodgers’ bullpen Team ERA is 3.80. That’s good enough to rank 13^th in Major League Baseball.

LAD’s bullpen issues are a problem because the Dodgers’ rotation has a Team ERA of 3.52. That ranks third in MLB. What it means is that the bullpen is wasting great 5 to 7 innings pitching from Dodger starters.

How does the team from Chavez-Ravine hit? The Team Batting Average is a less than stellar .244. that ranks 20^th in MLB.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks started the season hot. It looked like they might run away with the NL West Division. But, like it always happens in baseball, teams cool off after hot starts. Arizona’s World Series odds of +1600 are higher than the Dodgers’ World Series odds.

When it comes to pitching, AZ is a contrast to the L.A. Dodgers. While the Dodgers have struggles in the bullpen, AZ’s bullpen ranks third in MLB in Team ERA. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen has a 2.85 ERA. That’s fantastic.

Arizona’s starting rotation isn’t as bad as you might think, either. The starters at Arizona have a Team ERA of 3.63. Only Houston, the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Cubs, and Boston have a better Team ERA than the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The D’Backs are the third worst hitting team in MLB, though. The team batting average is a horrendous .229.

Biggest NL West Question:  Will the Dodgers Find a Bullpen?

The Dodgers appear to have a better starting rotation as well as a better batting lineup than the Arizona Diamondbacks. So, the real question is whether the Dodgers will find a bullpen. If LAD manages to trade for at least one set-up man who can get them to closer Kenley Jansen, they should win the NL West.

Why only one set-up man? Dodger starters could pitch 6 innings to 7 innings a game. That leaves one inning for the bridge reliever to the set-up reliever.

If the Dodgers don’t find that set-up reliever, all bets are off. Arizona only must get their bats going to overtake the Dodgers in the NL West.

Dodger fans should be worried. No word yet on whether L.A. intends on trading for a set-up reliever. That means the likelihood of the Dodgers solving their bullpen issues are much less favorable than the likelihood of Arizona’s bats getting hot.

Unless the Dodgers find that all-important set-up reliever, the Arizona Diamondbacks figure to win the NL West Division.

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No division race is going to be more fun to watch this season than the NL West, with the LA Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies all having a winning percentage above .600 as of this writing? Who wins it? L.A. is the MLB betting favorite for a fifth straight NL West title.

Let’s look at the contenders – the Padres and Giants are both already out of the race.

NL West MLB Betting Analysis for the 2017 Season

Dodgers Are Raking

As of Monday, the Dodgers have won 10 games in a row. For the Dodgers, it’s their longest winning streak since winning 10 straight from Aug. 7-17, 2013. Since that time, the Dodgers had not had a winning streak of more than seven games. The Dodgers’ offense has sustained them during their winning streak.

Since the streak started on June 16, they lead MLB with 79 runs scored (the Astros are second with 67), have hit 27 home runs (the Cardinals, second in that time, had 23 entering Sunday night) and own a 1.015 team OPS.

How is Cody Bellinger Doing So Far?

Cody Bellinger’s six multi-home run games are already just one shy of the rookie single-season record set by Mark McGwire in 1987. Bellinger got to his sixth such game much quicker than any other player. He now has the most homers through his first 60 games than any player in MLB history.

Let’s see how pitchers adjust and attack Bellinger. One option would be to throw him more fastballs on the inside part of the plate, since he’s hitting .176/.200/.412 on inside fastballs, but those stats have come in only 35 plate appearances.

Pitching-wise, the Dodgers have the third-highest on-base percentage in the big leagues, the eighth-best slugging percentage and are slashing .265/.367/.459 with runners in scoring position. Their starting pitchers’ 3.52 ERA is second the major leagues and has the second-best ERA in the game, at 2.91, and a nearly 4-to- 1 strikeout-to- walk ratio.

Diamondbacks Rarely Lose At Home

Arizona’s 48-28 record (.632) is their best 76-game start in club history. team’s best 77-game start ahead of 2001 (46-31, .597). The D-backs have won 11 of their last 13 games and 14 of their last 17. Arizona has won five consecutive series at Chase Field. It has nine series victory at home overall, matching their 2016 season total.

The D-backs are 13-2 in their last 15 home games since May 15. Overall, their 28-10 (.737) home record is second in the Majors (Dodgers, 32-10, .762). The D-backs’ .730 winning percentage (27-10) since May 15 is second in the Majors behind the Dodgers (.744, 29-10) and ahead of the Astros (.667, 26-13) and Rockies (.590, 23-16).

Goldschmidt Makes the Difference

Paul Goldschmidt leads the NL with 4.0 wins above replacement this season, ahead of Max Scherzer (3.5), Corey Seager (3.2) and Justin Turner (3.2). Fernando Rodney, who has a career-best 9 straight hitless outings, has not allowed an earned run in 18 straight games since May 1, going 14-for- 15 in save chances with a 0.00 ERA.

Rockies Are No Slouches, Either

This is only the second season in franchise history in which the Rockies have gotten to at least 20 games above .500 at any point (2009). The last time was at the end of the 2009 season when the Rockies finished 92-70. Colorado’s all-time highwater mark is 24 games in ‘09 at 92-68.

The Rockies are 25-15 away from Denver, tied for the most road wins in the National League (Washington, 25-15). The Rockies have only had one winning record away from Denver in a season, going 41-40 in 2009.

Charlie Blackmon has joined Chuck Klein (24 home runs, 12 triples in 1932) and Johnny Callison (15 home runs, 10 triples in 1965) as the only three players in Major League history to record at least 15 home runs and 10 triples prior to July 1. Blackmon currently leads the Majors in hits (100) and triples (10).

Could Cracks Be Showing?

No team in MLB is relying more on rookie starting pitchers, but it’s not really an issue of innings pitched for Colorado, with the rookie foursome of Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Jeff Hoffman and German Marquez.

The only one with a potential limit on his total this season is Senzatela, who already has amassed 88.2 IP after totaling only 34.2 last season, when he was shut down due to a rib muscle injury.

The other three combined season innings totals from 2016: Hoffman 150, Freeland 162, Marquez 187.1. Only Freeland (currently at 87 2/3 IP) is on a pace to reach 180 IP for this season.

But the four rookies have seen their ERAs jump in June. The good news is that top starter Jon Gray is scheduled to return on Friday, when the Rockies will start another key series against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field.

Final NL West MLB Betting Predictions

By the way things are looking, the Dodgers have too much firepower and the money to add whatever they need. L.A. wins the West again. Any how, the All Star Break will be upon us within the next couple of weeks, so we might have a different perspective by then. For now, start placing those bets and have fun!