Padres vs Mets

Padres vs Mets | MLB Betting Analysis

Written by on June 11, 2021

Two of the best teams in the National League open a weekend series on Friday from New York as NL Cy Young betting favorite Jacob deGrom takes the mound for the Mets against the San Diego Padres. The Mets are favored on the MLB odds and probably will be in every game this year deGrom starts.

How to Bet Padres at Mets MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on San Diego? | MLB Betting Analysis

The Padres are not playing great at the moment. They lost two of three at home vs. the White Sox to start this week and have dropped eight of 11 overall.

The lone bright spot from Wednesday’s 3-1 loss to the Cubs was Tommy Pham stealing his 10th base of the season. San Diego’s leadoff batter collected one of only four total hits the team managed in the contest, though he also struck out three times. The Padres have been running like crazy this season and Pham has been right in the middle of it with 10 thefts on 12 attempts.

Manny Machado went 1-for-4 with the lone RBI. Machado notched his 37th RBI of the season following an RBI single in the bottom of the third inning that scored Pham. Machado has hit safely in nine of the Padres’ last 12 games, though, and he has racked up two homers, nine RBI and a .846 OPS during that stretch.

Outfielder Trent Grisham (heel) ran the bases at Petco Park on Wednesday as he prepares for an upcoming rehab assignment. Grisham will head to Triple-A El Paso for that rehab stint. From there, the length of his rehab will depend on how he feels, manager Jayce Tingler said.

Without an obvious backup center fielder in Grisham, the Padres’ defense has slumped. Their offense, on the whole, has slumped, too. And while Grisham isn’t a cure-all for the offensive woes, it’s hard to overstate his impact atop the lineup.

It’s lefty Blake Snell (2-2) for the Padres on the mound. Snell struck out 10 batters over seven scoreless innings with one hit and one walk allowed in a 2-0 win over the Mets last Friday in his best outing of the season by far. Snell took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. Francisco Lindor broke up the no-no with a single to left field, then made it to third on an error by Tommy Pham. Snell stayed in the game and struck out two of the next three batters to complete seven innings for the first time since April 2, 2019. He included 15 swinging-strikes and tossed 67-of-101 pitches for strikes for a 33 percent CSW rate (called strikes plus whiffs).

It’s been an up-and-down season for Snell, but this much is clear: When he’s in the strike zone, his electric stuff does the rest. Snell takes a 4.83 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts over 54 innings into this start.

Why Bet on NY Mets? | MLB Betting Analysis

The Mets split two games in Baltimore to open this week and scored a season-high 14 runs in Wednesday’s blowout. Pete Alonso smacked his 10th home run of the season and third in the past two days.  Alonso finished 3-for-5 with three RBIs and is now slashing .265/.349/.500 with 10 homers and 31 RBI on the season.

Kevin Pillar went 3-for-4 with two home runs and four RBI. He hit a three-run shot off Matt Harvey in the third inning and later added a solo shot in the eighth off reliever Mac Sceroler. Pillar hit safely in just three of the Mets’ last seven games, but he’s recorded at least two hits in each one of those contests.

Billy McKinney went 3-for-5 with two home runs and five RBI. McKinney had one of the best offensive performances of his career and now has seven homers on the year. He has hit safely in three of the Mets’ last four games. McKinney is playing every day with outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto on the injured list. Neither will play here, but infielder Luis Guillorme could be activated from the injured list Friday. He should be able to find a fair share of at-bats with Jeff McNeil (hamstring) and J.D. Davis (hand) still on the injured list.

It’s two-time NL Cy Young winner and clear-cut betting favorite for a third in Jacob deGrom (5-2) on the mound here. The Mets are bumping deGrom up a day in the rotation to keep him on a regular rest schedule with two team off-days this week.

DeGrom owns a 0.62 ERA (four earned runs/58.0 innings) this season. It is the lowest ERA ever in a pitcher’s first nine starts of a season. He has an 0.57 WHIP this season through nine starts, the lowest WHIP by any pitcher through his first nine starts of a season since at least 1901 (min 40 IP). He has struck out 93 through his nine starts this season, the first pitcher with that many strikeouts and that low of an ERA over any nine-start span since earned runs became official. He has only allowed 25 hits, three home runs and eight walks on the year.

The right-hander pitched last Saturday vs. San Diego and had seven shutout innings, limiting the Padres to three hits and striking out 11 with one walk on just 85 pitches. DeGrom threw 60 pitches for strikes, including 21 swings and misses.

Game Trends

  • Padres are 17-4 in their last 21 Friday games.
  • Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.
  • Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series.
  • Mets are 14-4 in their last 18 games as a favorite.
  • Mets are 20-8 in their last 28 vs. National League West.

Expert Prediction

  • Mets 4, Padres 1

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