NASCAR Race Odds to Win AdventHealth 400 Betting Analysis & Picks

Who is going to end this season as the NASCAR Cup Series champion?

While it may still be too early in the season to come up with a definitive answer to that question, there are a few drivers who look to be at the top of their game right now.

My Analysis

This weekend, we have the AdventHealth 400 in Kansas, which is the 12th race of the Cup Series season, with a few of the more familiar names sitting atop the bookies board as potential favorites. As we have mentioned in the past, winning is great, but the regular season really is just all about picking up points on a consistent basis and staying in the top 16. Getting into the playoffs is all that really matters, as anything can happen there, but you can bet that every driver still wants to take the checkered flag in every race. Who might do it this weekend? Let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR odds.

Kyle Larson Pick +350

Larson comes into Race 12 with the lead in the driver standings, as well as being the favorite to win in Kansas. He has just 1 win this season, but he has been close to winning a few times outside of that. He did have a little bit of a slump for a couple of weeks, but he seemed to pull out of that with a 2nd place run in Dover last weekend. He has now had no less than 3 podium finishes in the last 5 races, but can he add to that this weekend? Recent races on the Kansas track would suggest that he can keep that streak alive, as he finished 2nd and 4th, respectively in Kansas last season.

Denny Hamlin Pick +440

You look at Hamlin’s results through the first 11 races of the season and you can’t help but be a little baffled. What you quickly learn, though, is that he is a driver that simply cannot ever be counted out. He has won 3 races this season, tied for most with William Byron, but outside of those wins, Hamlin has only been in the top 10 in one other race. All of that may well describe why he is not sitting at the top right now. It also explains why some bettors might be a little gun shy about playing him to win. Kansas is a track that he seems to love, though, as he won this race last season and finished 2nd there in the playoffs. Can he make it back-to-back wins on Sunday?

Tyler Reddick Pick +640

Reddick is another driver that has been wildly inconsistent through the opening 11 races of the year. He has been in the top 10 quite a bit, as well as having 1 win to his name, but he has also had several races where he failed to even crack the top 30. Despite all of that he is still up among the leaders, sitting 5th in the driver standings. He is another driver that is worth a look on this Kansas track. He ran 9th in this race in 2023, but he went on to win in Kansas in the playoffs, which moved him into the Round of 8 before he eventually went out, finishing 6th overall last season.

Martin Truex Jr Pick +780

Despite being one of the elder statesmen of the Cup Series, Truex Jr is still proving to be relevant, as he comes into this weekend sitting in 2nd overall in the driver standings. While he is still looking for his first win of the season, Truex Jr. has had a couple of close calls, landing on the podium twice. He finished in the top 10 in this race last season, so with all of that information, I am more than a little nervous about playing him to win this weekend. Realistically, I think a top 10 finish is the best that we can hope for out of Truex Jr., but perhaps he has a few more surprises for us this season.

William Byron Pick +800

As we mentioned earlier in this piece, there are a couple of drivers who lead the way with 3 wins this season, with Byron being one of them. He also has 4 top 10 finished outside of those wins, but Byron is coming off a very poor showing in Dover last weekend. I have a feeling that the result he delivered last weekend will not be a sign of a potential slump. As Byron has found a way to quickly bounce back after every poor run this season. Whether that means he can do the same in Kansas remains to be seen, but he did land on the podium in this race in 2023. I’m not entirely sold on him winning this race, but I think a top 5 bet would be fine.

Chase Elliott Pick +1000

Elliott has never really been a driver that wins a ton of races, but he is one that always seems to be up among the leaders in every race. His best showing came in 2020, when he won 5 races, 3 of which were in the playoffs, to end the season as the Cup Series champion. Elliott made it to the Championship Round in the following 2 seasons before injury and suspension derailed him in 2023. He is looking for a bounce back season in 2024 and is back up among the leaders, sitting in 3rd overall in the driver standings. Elliott has 1 win this season, but this is a guy that I am always more comfortable playing in the top 5 or top 10, which is what I would be looking at in Kansas.

NASCAR Cup Series: AdventHealth 400 Info

When: Sunday, May 5 at 3:00pm ET
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV / Streaming: FS1, MRN, SiriusXM
Practice 1: Saturday, May 4, 5:05 pm ET
Qualifying: Saturday, May 4, 5:50 pm ET

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