March Madness is on the way. Even fans who do not follow College Basketball all that closely get into the Madness of March. The unpredictability of the event, and the fact that the little guy has a chance in a one-game matchup, is something fans across the world enjoy, making it the perfect time to predict March Madness surprises.
If you’re looking for college basketball betting lines statistics and trends that could help you help you in your quest for March Madness betting success, then you’ve come to the right place.
Which Trends Could Help Predict March Madness Surprises?
The Upset Code: Unlock the Trends That Will Dominate March Madness!
2025 March Madness | 86th edition of the NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament
Selection Sunday: Sunday March 16th, 2025
Next March Madness Surprises?
March Madness is one of the most unpredictable events in sports, with upsets and Cinderella stories captivating fans every year.
While no formula guarantees picking the perfect bracket, several key trends can help identify teams primed for a deep tournament run.
From performance patterns to statistical analysis and intangibles, here are the critical factors to consider when predicting March Madness surprises.
Team Performance Trends That Can Lead to March Madness Surprises
Late Season Surge Matters—But with Caution
Teams that finish the season strong are often seen as prime candidates for a deep tournament run.
Momentum is real, and squads playing their best basketball in February and early March tend to carry that confidence into the NCAA Tournament.
However, not all late-season surges translate into success—matchups, depth, and overall talent still matter.
Not only that, but like in other sports, teams that are hot in their conference tournament can bounce in the NCAA Tournament.
This is especially true for teams that aren’t supposed to play well in their conference tournament.
Conference Tournament Performance Isn’t Always a Reliable Indicator
A deep run in the conference tournament can signal a team’s ability to handle high-pressure games, but it’s not always a perfect predictor of March Madness success.
Some teams expend too much energy during their conference tournament and fizzle out early in the Big Dance.
Others, especially battle-tested squads from power conferences, may bow out early in their league tournament but come back strong in the NCAA Tournament.
The key word when looking for teams that can translate decent conference tournament play to the NCAA Tournament is energy.
How much energy did the team expend to win or go far in their conference tournament? Energy depletion might be the single most important factor to why lower level seeds upset higher seeds in the first round.
Good Road Squads Usually Excel in March
Teams that perform away from home during the regular season tend to handle the tournament environment better.
The ability to win in hostile environments signals mental toughness, strong defense, and efficient offense—all necessary for March Madness success.
Good road teams also possess an intangible.
The intangible is the ability to shut out the noise and just play ball.
The best NCAA Tournament teams have had this ability.
If distractions get in the way of performance, the team is doomed to exit early.
Neutral Court Dominance is a Key Factor
The NCAA Tournament is played on neutral courts, so it’s essential to look at how teams perform in such settings.
Some teams thrive in neutral-site games while others struggle outside their home arena.
Past performance in early season tournaments and high profile matchups can provide valuable insight.
Many conference tournaments also happen on neutral courts.
So take that into account as well.
If a team mustn’t be on their court to put forth a winning effort, then the squad might be primed for a deep NCAA Tournament run.
Statistical and Analytical Trends
Use Advanced Metrics—But Don’t Overdo It
KenPom rankings, efficiency ratings, and other advanced metrics can be useful tools, but they shouldn’t be the only guide.
Numbers help paint a picture, but factors like matchups, experience, and game flow can override statistical trends in a one-and-done setting.
More importantly, we must downgrade statistics in the NCAA Tournament.
The reason is because teams are unfamiliar with each other.
So a team that has great statistics in conference play could for sure struggle against a team they know nothing about.
One of the major shifts in recent years has been the increasing use of advanced analytics in college basketball.
Advanced Stats
Teams, coaches, and experts are taking a deep dive into numbers beyond traditional statistics like points, rebounds, and assists.
Metrics such as Player Efficiency Rating, effective field goal percentage), and advanced defensive statistics provide a more total understanding of player and team performance.
By taking a look at these numbers, experts may be able to identify where teams are being over or even underlooked!
Three-Point Shooting Variance is a Game-Changer
The three-point shot is the biggest equalizer in college basketball, and teams that can shoot from beyond the arc effectively often enough, often find themselves with a major advantage.
Teams that rely heavily on three-point shooting can either pull off shocking upsets or suffer early exits if their shots aren’t falling.
Identifying squads with a balance of perimeter and interior scoring is key when looking for Cinderella teams.
Don’t forget about three-point defense.
Defending against the three is as important as making threes.
In fact, the team that has the better three-point defense has a big edge no matter the other statistics because of how significant making threes has become.
As the three-point shot continues to change the game, teams that continually hit the outside shot over and over can pull off the big game upsets.
Looking at three point percentages before each matchup could give you a better idea of how the game is going to go.
Turnover Margin and Rebounding Separate Contenders from Pretenders
Winning the turnover battle and dominating the boards are essential for March success.
Defensive rebounding is important for sure but offensive rebounding is the key to success.
Teams that protect the basketball and create extra possessions through offensive rebounding often find themselves advancing deep into the tournament.
The key words are extra possessions.
Success in the NCAA Tournament comes down to limiting your opponent’s possessions.
You limit possessions through great defense and by creating more possessions for yourself via offensive rebounding.
Free Throw Shooting is a Must Have for Tournament Success
Free throws become critical in close tournament games.
Poor free throw shooting has doomed many talented teams in past tournaments, while strong free throw shooters can seal wins late.
Checking a team’s free throw percentage—especially among key players—is a smart way to assess its ability to close out tight games.
Remember, because the NCAA Tournament is a one-and-done event, teams are going to foul players on squad’s with the lead again and again towards the end of he game.
If you don’t make your free throws, you could lose.
Transfer Portal Impact
There is no bigger factor for the landscape of college basketball right now than the transfer portal.
The portal has given players the ability to move from one program to another without any punishment.
Teams that have successfully done their homework in the transfer portal and used new talent with existing players into their systems can be ready for a fun March Madness season.
The impact of transfer portal additions is often overlooked, and teams with key transfers can surprise opponents and exceed expectations.
Make sure you have looked over the transfer portal and know the dynamics of each team before you place your bets, as you may be able to find a diamond in the rough that springs the upset.
Coaching Strategies
As much as some may not like to admit it, College Basketball still needs elite coaches.
Coaches that have their teams prepared for a certain game plan, or have their own game plan to eliminate what their opponent does best often find their way to March Madness success.
Many of the top coaches in the country once started as the underdog and picked up some March Madness upsets along the way to springboard into a bigger, betting paying job.
Do not overlook the impact of head coaches in the NCAA Tournament!
Conference Performance
How a team did in their conference season could play a factor.
But, what is a better use of conference performance is strength of schedule, style of play, and ability to play specific styles of basketball.
Each conference brings a little something to the floor, and to know and understand this for each of the 68 teams could help you when you are ready to make your March Madness picks.
Intangible and Situational Trends
Big Dance Coaching Experience Matters
Coaching is a massive factor in March Madness.
Coaches with a track record of success in the tournament often have a strategic edge, whether through in-game adjustments, time management, or motivation.
First time tournament coaches can pull off upsets, but experienced bench bosses tend to navigate the chaos better.
Try to back teams with coaches who have proven they can manage the rigors of the NCAA Tournament.
A college basketball game is 40 minutes.
Upgrade teams with HCs that know how to manage those 40 minutes.
Veteran Leadership is Invaluable
Teams with upperclassmen who have been through the tournament before often perform better than those relying heavily on freshmen.
Players who stay composed in high pressure moments can be the difference between an early exit and a Cinderella run.
Keep in mind transfer players.
Like college football, programs that have the ability to entice transfers almost always have a better chance in the tournament than those that don’t.
Injury and Roster Changes Can Signal a Team’s Resilience
Late-season injuries or unexpected roster changes can make or break a team’s tournament chances.
But some squads rally around adversity and play their best basketball when shorthanded.
Understanding how a team has responded to lineup changes is crucial when evaluating their potential.
The best indicator is if a team struggled in the regular season due to an unexpected injury but somehow managed to turn around a sinking ship.
If a team can play and win even without a key player, that’s the sign of a cohesive, well coached, basketball squad.
March Madness is unpredictable by nature, but identifying key trends can help uncover potential surprises.
Whether it’s strong road performance, statistical advantages, veteran leadership, or coaching pedigree, these factors often separate contenders from early exits.
While upsets will always be part of the madness, keeping an eye on these trends can help you stay ahead of the bracket busting chaos.
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^ Top^ TopOne of my all time favorite March Madness moments was when Greg Gumbel was in disbelief whenever Charles Barkley said he use to shower in his uniform.
— Karl Townes (@Karl_Townes) December 27, 2024
Rest in Peace man, March and Selection Sunday won’t be the same without you. pic.twitter.com/1UdVHL7miY
Odds of Winning March Madness Final Four
Check out the odds for teams to win the 2025 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament Final Four.
Updated Top 2025 College Basketball National Championship Odds to Win
| Teams | Odds |
|---|---|
| Duke | -103 |
| Florida | +275 |
| Houston | +420 |
| Auburn | +480 |
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NCAA Basketball Betting Trends & Stats Could Help Predict 2019 March Madness
Previous Betting News
Selection Sunday for the Men’s NCAA College Basketball Tournament is March 18. That gives us about a month before the most exciting sporting event of the year tips-off. A month sounds like a long time to prepare, but when it comes to March Madness, it’s really not!
Check out some March Madness trends that should help us put together a strong strategy heading into the NCAA Tournament. Don’t forget to keep reading for the 5 college basketball teams that are killing it against the spread.
NCAA Basketball Betting Trends & Stats Could Help Predict 2019 March Madness
Top Trends for March Madness
Favorites aren’t great against the spread
If you like to back favorites, you could lose your shirt in Round 1. Favorites don’t perform well against the spread because lines are often off. In Round 1, teams that have no clue about each other face-off. That means favorites end up losing against the spread while eking out a straight up win.In 2017, favorites went 14-15-1 ATS in Round 1. In 2016, favorites went 15-16 ATS.
Dogs can often win on the moneyline
In the NCAA Tournament, underdogs can often win on the moneyline. Even underdogs that don’t appear to have any shot can beat their opponents on the moneyline. The key to finding underdogs is to look at shooting percentage allowed.Favorites often average more points than their underdog counterparts. However, if the dog has a better shooting percentage allowed than the favorite, they’ll have a good shot to win the game. Shooting percentage allowed tells us if the team will instill its style of play.
In basketball, the team that instills its style of play has a much better shot of winning outright as a dog than a team that gets caught up in the favorite’s style of play.
Teams that mustn’t travel too far often cover
It goes without saying that the closer you play at home, the better your chances of showing up in the NCAA Tournament. Once seeds are set, look for underdogs that play their more heralded opponents closer to home. You’re going to find a few dogs that should score big profits on the moneyline.Favorites that play close to home are also likelier to cover.
When facing double-digit spreads, dogs perform better
The higher the spread, the better the underdog performs ATS. This makes sense because the underdog has more points to work with. But, don’t just settle on backing double-digit does in the NCAA Tournament against the spread. Also consider backing them on the moneyline.Top 10 Sure Thing NCAA Tournament Teams Against the Spread
Which teams should garner 1-seeds?
Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Virginia are on their way to 1-seeds. However, Virginia lost straight up to UMBC in the only 1 vs 16 upset in tournament history last season. The Selection Committee might not give Virginia a 1-seed.That could be to UVA’s benefit. Tony Bennett’s squad still possesses the best defense of any team in college hoops. Make sure to circle UVA as a potential favorite to back against the spread. The only team that’s stuck with Virginia this season is Duke, who beat the Cavaliers twice.
It’s unlikely Virginia faces Duke until deep in the tournament.
Betting Trends & Stats That Could Help Predict 2018 March Madness
Previous Betting News
March Madness is right around the corner, frankly the only time that most casual bettors care about college basketball. If I knew which team was going to win the national title, I’d probably not tell you, bet it myself and go retire on a yacht. Sadly, I don’t know but here are some March Madness betting trends to keep in mind come the Big Dance.
Betting Trends & Stats That Could Help Predict 2018 March Madness
Don’t Bet On a Final Four Newbie Coach
The NBA is a players’ league – it largely doesn’t matter who the coach is. If you have a superstar on your roster, you have a legitimate shot to win it all in the NBA. Nowadays, you generally need two. The best players in college basketball don’t always cut down the nets. But the best coaches do.
Since 1990, the only coaches to win on their first trip to the Final Four are Jim Harrick (UCLA, 1995), Tubby Smith (Kentucky, 1998), Jim Calhoun (UConn, 1999), Bill Self (Kansas, 2008) and Kevin Ollie (UConn, 2014). Of course, last year’s champion was North Carolina, and Roy Williams is a Hall of Famer who had plenty of Final Four (and national title) experience at both Kansas and North Carolina.
One school that stands out in this regard is Arizona, which is +1000 at MyBookie.ag to win it all. The Cats have as much talent as anyone – maybe the second-most overall behind Duke. But Sean Miller is arguably the best active coach to never reach a Final Four. In last year’s tournament, heavily favored Arizona was knocked off in the Sweet 16 by Xavier. It almost looked as if Arizona was unprepared. The Wildcats were noticeably more nervous and disjointed against Xavier than they had been for most of the season. Arizona’s best offensive player, 7’0” freshman center Lauri Markkanen, didn’t touch the ball for the final 11 minutes. He’s now a star rookie with the Bulls.
Miller has knocked very hard at the Final Four door four times by reaching the Elite Eight – three times at Arizona and once at Xavier. During his seven seasons at Arizona, he has taken his team to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend five times.
Another coach who falls into this category would be Tony Bennett of top-ranked Virginia. The Wahoos are +500 to win the first national title in school history. They haven’t reached a Final Four since 1984.
Rankings Do Matter
The AP Poll does matter when it comes to picking an eventual national champion. Want proof? In 21 of the last 25 years, the national champion has been ranked in the top 10 of the final AP poll in January. Then again, in three of the last five seasons, the national champion was ranked outside of the AP top 10 (North Carolina in 2017, UConn in 2014 and Louisville in 2013) at the end of January.
The teams in the last AP Top 10 for January were Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke, Michigan State, Xavier, Kansas, Cincinnati, Arizona and Texas Tech. Which of those schools are led by coaches who have never reached the Final Four? I mentioned Arizona and Virginia. Also, Xavier, Purdue, Cincinnati and Texas Tech.
No Big Ten, Pac-12 Or Mid Major
Can you believe the Big Ten hasn’t won a national title since Michigan State did in 2000? That team was led by the “Flintstones” – Flint natives Mateen Cleaves, Morris Peterson and Charlie Bell. This year’s best player is sophomore Miles Bridges. He’s also from Flint.
The Pac-12 hasn’t had a champion since Coach Lute Olson’s team in 1997. When the Oregon Ducks beat Kansas in a regional final last season, they became the first team from the Pac-12 to make a Final Four since 2008. Oregon would lose to North Carolina.
Stanford made the Final Four in 1998, but fell to Kentucky in a national semifinal. (Utah lost to Kentucky in the title game that season, but the Utes were not in the conference at that time). In 2001, Arizona made a run to the National Championship Game, but fell to Duke in the final. UCLA made the NCAA Championship final in 2006, but lost to Florida. The Bruins returned to the Final Four in 2007, but fell to Florida in a national semifinal. UCLA got back again in 2008 but lost to Memphis in a semifinal.
The only Pac-12 school I give any shot this year is Arizona. I believe Purdue and Ohio State are overrated in the Big Ten but the Spartans have a chance.
Meanwhile, no team from outside a Power 6 conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 & SEC) has won it all since that absolutely stacked UNLV team in 1990. Of course, the Rebels made it all the way to the following season’s Final Four without a loss but were upset by Duke.
Which Trends Could Help Predict 2017 March Madness Surprises?
Previous Betting News
If you’re looking for college basketball betting lines statistics and trends that could help you help you in your quest for March Madness betting success, then you’ve come to the right place.
Thanks to the expert collegiate hoops analysis that you’re about to get, you’re going to have a great idea of which trends you should be paying attention to most and which ones likely won’t mean much in terms of your tournament betting success. Let’s get started.
Which Betting Trends & Stats Could Help Predict March Madness Surprises?
Straight-Up (SU) Trends
Favorites have gone 2148-745 this season to win a whopping 74.2 percent of their games this season. Remember, picking SU winners is a lot easier than picking ATS winners.
However, you should know that away favorites have gone 567-250 to win 69.4 percent of the time. This is a great stat to know and one that should prompt you to look for tourney teams that have fared well on the road this season.
Against-The-Spread (ATS) Trends
You may not have known it, but underdogs have gone 1422-1413-58 this season for an impressive 50.1 percent winning mark. In addition to that, away favorites have brought home the bacon a stellar 52.2 percent of the time this season (416-380-21) while road underdogs have also excelled by going 1042-997-37 (51.1%).
While there are no official ‘home or away’ games in the March Madness tournament, the fact of the matter is that there really are, particularly early on when many of the top regional seeds will be playing in or near their home courts with fans rooting for them in abundance. Teams that play steady basketball no matter where the tip-off takes place are clearly very attractive heading into March Madness.
Over/Under (O/U) Trends
51.78 percent of all non-overtime games this season (1,396) have finished under the total but 50.4 percent of all games this season have finished Over the O/U Total. If the O/U Total on your March Madness matchup looks borderline close, apparently you should play the Over.
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