Bills vs Patriots Pick: NFL Week 18 Analysis & Betting Preview

As we approach the highly anticipated Bills vs Patriots pick for the 2025 NFL Week 18, the Buffalo Bills are set to face the New England Patriots in a matchup that carries different stakes for each team, with Buffalo having already secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC while the Patriots are more focused on securing a top draft pick than winning the game.

Betting Bills vs Patriots Pick for the 2025 NFL Week 18
AFC East Showdown: Bills vs. Patriots – Waiting for that Upset?

2025 NFL Season | 104th season of National League in the United States
Week 18: Saturday, January 4th – Sunday, January 5th, 2025

Betting 2025 Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Week 18 Game

The Buffalo Bills will face the New England Patriots in Week 18 to close out the regular season.

Buffalo has already secured the AFC’s No. 2 seed, leaving them with little to gain in this matchup.

However, head coach Sean McDermott plans to play some starters, including Josh Allen, for at least a short period.

On the other side, the Patriots are likely focused on securing the top overall pick in the NFL Draft, making their strategy for this game unclear.

Buffalo enters this game after a strong 13-3 season and a narrow 24-21 win over New England just two weeks ago.

The Patriots, sitting at 3-13, have struggled throughout the season but showed competitiveness in their recent game against the Bills.

With differing motivations and potential for limited participation from key players, this matchup presents unique betting angles.

NFL Week 18 Showdown: Buffalo Bills (13-3) at New England Patriots (3-13)
Sunday, January 5th, 2025 at 1:00 PM EST CBS | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

ATS Odds: Buffalo -2.5
Money line Odds: Buffalo -142 / New England +116
Over/Under Odds: 37.5

Writer’s Pick for the Bills vs Patriots Game Starting Sunday’s Round of Action

Betting Bills Line to Win the Game

The Bills are one of the most complete teams in the NFL, featuring a high-powered offense led by quarterback Josh Allen and a defense capable of shutting down opponents.

While Allen is expected to play briefly, backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky will likely take over for the majority of the game. (Remember to check this out: Quarterbacks Picks for NFL Week 18)

Trubisky has proven to be a competent backup, giving Buffalo confidence in their offense even with limited starters on the field.

Defensively, Buffalo has shown vulnerabilities in recent weeks, ranking 24th in opponent EPA per play since Week 11.

However, they have the talent to dominate against a struggling Patriots offense.

With players eager to secure depth chart positions and make an impression before the playoffs, expect the Bills’ second-stringers to play with high intensity.

Betting Patriots Line to Win the Game

The Patriots have endured a difficult season, with inconsistencies on both sides of the ball.

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown flashes of potential but may not play in this game as New England evaluates other options.

Running back Antonio Gibson could take on a larger role, having been more effective than Rhamondre Stevenson in limited opportunities.

Defensively, New England has struggled to contain opponents, particularly at home.

Despite their challenges, the Patriots showed fight in their last matchup against Buffalo, narrowly losing 24-21.

With several starters potentially in action, they could make this a competitive game, though their focus may be more on preserving health and draft position.

Betting Bills vs Patriots Pick & Score Prediction

With Buffalo locked into their playoff position and New England likely aiming to secure the top draft pick, motivation and effort will play significant roles in this matchup.

The Bills’ backups should have the edge, given their desire to impress the coaching staff.

Meanwhile, the Patriots’ inconsistencies and potential lack of full effort make them hard to trust, even as underdogs.

Score Prediction: Bills 20, Patriots 16

NFL ATS Pick: Bills -2.5

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Buffalo at New England Betting Trends Today

Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games
Josh Allen has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 19 games
Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games
Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games
Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 17 games
Bills have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games
Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games
Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home

(Check out: NFL ATS Week 18 betting picks, that’s a rundown on to the top games.)

I’m going to lose my mind when the Patriots lose the #1 pick in the draft week 18 vs the Bills because they rest all their starters…
— Jimmy Edinger (@edinger_james7) December 30, 2024

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With the Buffalo Bills betting line and Patriots betting line now available, it’s crucial to review the latest betting odds before making your move.

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Is there a Rivalry between Bills vs Patriots? Let’s Find Out

Yes, there is definitely a rivalry between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots, and it’s one of the most notable in the NFL, especially within the AFC East division.

Reasons Behind the Rivalry:

Division Rivals:
Both teams are part of the AFC East, meaning they face each other twice a season.
This frequent competition for division supremacy fuels a natural rivalry, creating intense matchups with high stakes for both teams.
Historically, the Patriots have dominated the AFC East for most of the 2000s and 2010s, but the Bills are emerging as a stronger contender in recent years, reigniting the rivalry.
Patriots’ Dominance:
For nearly two decades, under coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, the Patriots were a perennial powerhouse, winning the division almost every year.
During this stretch, the Bills often found themselves on the losing side of these matchups, which fueled frustration and added tension to the rivalry.
Recent Developments:
Since the rise of Josh Allen and the revitalization of the Bills under head coach Sean McDermott, the rivalry has heated up.
Buffalo has become a legitimate AFC contender, and the Bills’ recent victories over the Patriots have shifted the power dynamics in the AFC East, making their matchups even more intense.
Close Games & Drama:
Over the years, many Bills vs. Patriots games have been close and full of drama.
One standout moment came in the 2021 season when the Bills and Patriots played in a brutal game that saw New England barely squeak out a victory with a record-low passing attempt total.
The rivalry’s intensity often spills over into both on-field drama and off-field narratives.
Playoff Implications:
The rivalry has become even more significant in recent years, with the Bills and Patriots both vying for playoff spots and divisional titles.
The Bills’ playoff victories over the Patriots (like in the 2021 Wild Card game) have added another layer of excitement to this matchup.

Key Moments in the Rivalry:

2000s-2010s: The Patriots dominate the rivalry, with Tom Brady leading the charge and winning most of the games against Buffalo.
2019-2021: The Bills, under Josh Allen, begin to turn the tide, winning key games, including playoff matchups.
2021 Playoffs: The Bills defeat the Patriots in a memorable Wild Card round, signaling a potential shift in power in the AFC East.

The Bills vs Patriots rivalry may not have the deep historical roots of some other NFL rivalries, but the competition between the two has only grown stronger as the Bills have become a legitimate threat to the Patriots’ former dominance in the division.

In conclusion, the rivalry between the Bills vs Patriots is alive and well, and with the Bills on the rise and the Patriots in a rebuilding phase, this matchup will likely remain a critical and fiercely contested one for the foreseeable future.

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