Bills vs Patriots Pick: NFL Week 18 Analysis & Betting Preview

As we approach the highly anticipated Bills vs Patriots pick for the 2025 NFL Week 18, the Buffalo Bills are set to face the New England Patriots in a matchup that carries different stakes for each team, with Buffalo having already secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC while the Patriots are more focused on securing a top draft pick than winning the game.

Betting Bills vs Patriots Pick for the 2025 NFL Week 18
AFC East Showdown: Bills vs. Patriots – Waiting for that Upset?

2025 NFL Season | 104th season of National League in the United States
Week 18: Saturday, January 4th – Sunday, January 5th, 2025

Betting 2025 Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Week 18 Game

The Buffalo Bills will face the New England Patriots in Week 18 to close out the regular season.

Buffalo has already secured the AFC’s No. 2 seed, leaving them with little to gain in this matchup.

However, head coach Sean McDermott plans to play some starters, including Josh Allen, for at least a short period.

On the other side, the Patriots are likely focused on securing the top overall pick in the NFL Draft, making their strategy for this game unclear.

Buffalo enters this game after a strong 13-3 season and a narrow 24-21 win over New England just two weeks ago.

The Patriots, sitting at 3-13, have struggled throughout the season but showed competitiveness in their recent game against the Bills.

With differing motivations and potential for limited participation from key players, this matchup presents unique betting angles.

NFL Week 18 Showdown: Buffalo Bills (13-3) at New England Patriots (3-13)
Sunday, January 5th, 2025 at 1:00 PM EST CBS | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

ATS Odds: Buffalo -2.5
Money line Odds: Buffalo -142 / New England +116
Over/Under Odds: 37.5

Writer’s Pick for the Bills vs Patriots Game Starting Sunday’s Round of Action

Betting Bills Line to Win the Game

The Bills are one of the most complete teams in the NFL, featuring a high-powered offense led by quarterback Josh Allen and a defense capable of shutting down opponents.

While Allen is expected to play briefly, backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky will likely take over for the majority of the game. (Remember to check this out: Quarterbacks Picks for NFL Week 18)

Trubisky has proven to be a competent backup, giving Buffalo confidence in their offense even with limited starters on the field.

Defensively, Buffalo has shown vulnerabilities in recent weeks, ranking 24th in opponent EPA per play since Week 11.

However, they have the talent to dominate against a struggling Patriots offense.

With players eager to secure depth chart positions and make an impression before the playoffs, expect the Bills’ second-stringers to play with high intensity.

Betting Patriots Line to Win the Game

The Patriots have endured a difficult season, with inconsistencies on both sides of the ball.

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown flashes of potential but may not play in this game as New England evaluates other options.

Running back Antonio Gibson could take on a larger role, having been more effective than Rhamondre Stevenson in limited opportunities.

Defensively, New England has struggled to contain opponents, particularly at home.

Despite their challenges, the Patriots showed fight in their last matchup against Buffalo, narrowly losing 24-21.

With several starters potentially in action, they could make this a competitive game, though their focus may be more on preserving health and draft position.

Betting Bills vs Patriots Pick & Score Prediction

With Buffalo locked into their playoff position and New England likely aiming to secure the top draft pick, motivation and effort will play significant roles in this matchup.

The Bills’ backups should have the edge, given their desire to impress the coaching staff.

Meanwhile, the Patriots’ inconsistencies and potential lack of full effort make them hard to trust, even as underdogs.

Score Prediction: Bills 20, Patriots 16

NFL ATS Pick: Bills -2.5

Bet the NFL Week 18 Games | NFL Live Betting MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

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Buffalo at New England Betting Trends Today

Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games
Josh Allen has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 19 games
Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games
Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games
Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 17 games
Bills have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games
Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games
Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home

(Check out: NFL ATS Week 18 betting picks, that’s a rundown on to the top games.)

I’m going to lose my mind when the Patriots lose the #1 pick in the draft week 18 vs the Bills because they rest all their starters…
— Jimmy Edinger (@edinger_james7) December 30, 2024

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Test Your Bills vs Patriots Pick with Your MyBookie Account

With the Buffalo Bills betting line and Patriots betting line now available, it’s crucial to review the latest betting odds before making your move.

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