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The winner between Miami and New England will have the inside track to the playoffs. The game happens at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, which is the reason the Patriots are the favorites. That, along with Tua Tagovailoa’s absence due to another concussion, has boosted New England to -3. Will the Patriots win and cover? Or will Miami step it up enough to take the next stop to the NFL postseason? See below for NFL Lines, analysis, and a free pick for Miami at New England.

NFL Week 17 Betting Preview and Prediction for Miami Dolphins at New England

Miami Dolphins versus New England Patriots Lines and Match Info

When: Sunday, Jan. 1 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
TV / Streaming: CBS/Paramount+
ATS Odds: New England -3
Money line Odds: Miami +130 / New England -160
Over/Under Odds: 41

Why bet on Miami versus New England?

Even though Tagovailoa is out, Miami’s offense should still move the football. Teddy Bridgewater, Tua’s backup, is one of the better second string quarterbacks in the league.

The fact left tackle Terron Armstead is healthy, should boost Bridgewater’s effectiveness. Also, Teddy can throw to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Raheem Mostert, the Fins’ starting running back, is also healthy.

Miami Dolphins Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 370.8

Passing Yards: 274.9

Rushing Yards: 95.9

Points Scored: 24.3

Turnovers: 19

Miami Dolphins Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 353.8

Passing Yards: 244.7

Rushing Yards: 109.1

Points Scored: 24.7

Takeaways: 14

Why bet on New England versus Miami?

In their last two games, the Patriots have made boneheaded plays towards the end of regulation to kill their chances at winning the game.

For sure, coach Bill Belichick is going to take the reigns in this game and call the shots. With Belichick at the controls, we should expect the Patriots’ defense to have a strategy to get to Bridgewater before he can throw to Waddle and Hill.

Miami doesn’t have much of a rushing attack. So if New England’s D can disrupt Bridgewater’s rhythm, the Patriots should win.

New England Patriots Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 317.2

Passing Yards: 208.6

Rushing Yards: 108.6

Points Scored: 21.2

Turnovers: 20

New England Patriots Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 320.9

Passing Yards: 213.1

Rushing Yards: 107.8

Points Scored: 19.4

Takeaways: 23

Dolphins at Patriots Relevant Trends

Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss
Miami is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 on the road
Over is 5-1 in the Dolphins last 6 road games
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
New England is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus the AFC East
Under is 4-0 in the Patriots’ last 4 games at home

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots Final Betting Prediction

One significant trend we didn’t add to the list is how the Miami Dolphins are 4-0 against the spread versus the Patriots in the last four head-to-head. The reason we didn’t add the trend is because this game is much different than the previous four.

New England is not playing well. But the Patriots have shot themselves in the foot in their last two games. The trick play against the Raiders was just plain stupid.

Even if the Pats hadn’t shot themselves in the foot versus the Bengals, Cincinnati is beating every team they play. So we can’t hold that against New England.

Miami is not playing well because Mike McDaniel isn’t calling the right play, the defense isn’t very good, and the Fins have no rushing attack. Now with Tua out, Miami’s quest to upset New England on the road has become much tougher.

The Patriots aren’t a great team. But Bill Belichick is the greatest coach in history, which is why New England to cover is the bet.

NFL Week 17 Pick: New England Patriots -3