If you haven’t been following Olympic basketball that much, allow us to give you a quick update on how things have been going to this point. The Preliminary Round in the men’s competition is composed of 3 groups of 4 teams.
The teams in each group will play a round-robin, with the top 2 teams moving on to the knockout phase.
My Analysis
We will also have the best two 3rd place finishers moving on, too. We have played the first 2 rounds of games, with Matchday 3 set to begin on August 2.
Let’s take a quick look at the 4 games set for that date, with predictions for each.
^Japan +119 vs Brazil -139
Friday at 5:00 AM EST | Given the current standings, neither of these teams will be moving on, so this one is more about national pride than anything else.
Both teams are still looking for their first win of the tournament, so this is definitely a way to end things on a bit of a high.
Japan is perhaps a little unlucky to be in this position, as they almost stunned France, eventually losing in OT in that one.
Brazil’s biggest issue has been an ability to put up points. Japan is a 3-point underdog here, but I think they might win and cover.
^MyBookie Olympics Odds & Lines to Win
Australia -244 vs Greece +202
Friday at 7:30 AM EST | The Aussies are very much on the brink of moving into the knockout phase, and while their chances look good, they are not likely to be in the medals this time around.
For Greece, it has very much been a one-man show, but as good as Giannis has been, he does not have the supporting cast required for Greece to pick up wins.
In terms of betting, individual props on Giannis may be the way to go, but for the game, I would be taking Australia to win and cover as a 5 1/w point favorite.
^Canada -455 vs Spain +356
Friday at 11:15 AM EST | It has not been the smoothest ride for Canada through the opening 2 games, but they have found ways to win both to take control of Group A.
While Spain might not be the team they were in the past, they are still in with a shot at moving on after winning one of their opening 2 games.
This, though, seems like a tough task, as they look very much outmatched against the Canadians.
If Spain can get hot from the 3-point range, as they did against Greece, I think they can cover as a 9 ½ point dog.
^France +122 vs Germany -145
Friday at 3 PM EST | This is the game that will decide which team lands on top in Group B.
They will both be moving on after winning their opening 2 games of the tournament, but the path to Olympic gold might be a little bit easier for the team that is higher seeded, moving into the knockout phase of the tournament. v
The bookies certainly seem to think that this one is going to be close, as they have Germany in as a modest 2-point favorite.
While I think it will be close, I am taking Germany to win and cover the spread.
^Odds to Win Olympic Basketball Men’s Tournament
- USA -676
- Canada +760
- Germany +1350
- France +1550
- Serbia +1625
- Australia +2900
- Spain +5200
- Greece +8500
- South Sudan +18000
- Brazil +46000
- Japan +46000
2 Down, 4 To Go.
— USA Basketball (@usabasketball) July 31, 2024
🇺🇸 #USABMNT #Paris2024 #Basketball pic.twitter.com/QPczWbQdMP
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