Women’s Olympic Basketball: Breaking Down Matchday 1 Odds and Favorites

There are many women’s basketball fans who are of the belief that you might as well just hand the gold medal to the United States right now.

At current odds of -1493, they are certainly the overwhelming favorite to be on the top spot on the medal podium.

My Analysis

As we have seen with the recent struggles by the US men’s side, though, perhaps we should not take this tournament as a foregone conclusion.

We will get a better idea of how every team looks once the action actually begins, which is Sunday on the women’s side of things.

We will have to wait until next week to see the US ladies in action, but the first match day does have a pair of games that we can watch and wager on.

Let’s take a closer look at both games to see if we can make some winning predictions.

Spain vs China

Sunday at 7:30 AM EST | These two teams are expected to make it out of Group A without breaking too much of a sweat, but opening things up with a win would certainly take some of the pressure off.

If we are going to talk about current form, you have to look at Spain, who have won 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5 games.

China has gone lost 4 in a row coming into this tournament, which includes a defeat at the hands of Spain last month.

That is a streak that is going to be very tough for them to break out of.

Over the last 10 games for each team, Spain has outscored China by an average of 14 points per game, while the average point total per game for both teams is sitting at 127 points.

In head-to-head meetings, it has been Spain who has come out fast most of the time, leading at the end of the first half in 6 of their last 8 meetings with China.

With all of that in mind, I believe it will be Spain getting off to a winning start.

Serbia vs Puerto Rico

Sunday at 3 PM EST | If you look at the odds of winning Group A, you get the very clear picture that Puerto Rico are likely to be in for a pretty tough go of things at the 2024 Olympic Games.

They are currently sitting at odds of +10000 to win the group, which is to basically say that they have no chance at all.

For Serbia, who are +1100, this is a chance to get a win and put some pressure on Spain and China, one of whom will lose their opening game.

Serbia played just 2 warm-up games ahead of this tournament, going 1-1 in those outings and averaging around 66 points per game.

Puerto Rico played 3 games in the lead up to the Olympics and managed to win just 1, averaging 65 PPG during that run.

While I certainly expect Serbia to come away with the win in their opening game, I’m not so sure that it will be a total blowout.

Odds to Win Olympic Basketball Women’s Tournament

• USA -1493
• Australia +1950
• France +1950
• Belgium +2300
• Spain +2400
• Japan +2600
• Canada +3200
• China +3700
• Serbia +6800
• Germany +14000
• Nigeria +16000
• Puerto Rico +65000

Steph Curry talks about what he's looking forward to outside of competition at his first Olympic Games at #Paris2024.@usabasketball | @StephenCurry30 pic.twitter.com/x6phuLIMAG

— The Olympic Games (@Olympics) July 25, 2024

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