For the first 10 days of the Australian Open, the courts have been shared by singles players in both the men’s and women’s draws. That changes for the final four days as each gender gets their own days. On day 11, Wednesday in the U.S. and Thursday in Melbourne, the women take center stage with the two semifinals as the highlight matches of the day. Let’s have a look at the betting favorites to win their semifinal game so you can bet against their Australian Open Odds.
2023 Australian Open Predictions & Betting Opportunities for Day 11 | Tennis Odds
Sabalenka Unblemished Thus Far
Before the quarterfinals, Aryna Sabalenka was the favorite to win the Australian Open at +230. After the quarterfinals, she is now at +100 to lift the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup given to the first grand slam winner of the season.
The Belarusian, seeded No. 5, is 0-3 in her career in grand slam semifinals. She lost in the 2021 Wimbledon semifinals to Karolina Pliskova, in the 2021 U.S. Open to Leylah Fernandez, and in the 2022 U.S. Open to Iga Swiatek.
Sabalenka won her quarterfinal 6-3, 6-2, and she hasn’t lost a set yet at Melbourne Park this year. She is -450 in the semifinal match against Polish journeywoman Magda Linette (+285), who had never been past the third round in a slam before this tournament.
Sabalenka is 3-0 in her career in grand slam quarterfinals, with two wins in the U.S. Open and one at Wimbledon. Vekic lost in the quarters in the 2019 U.S. Open, and this is only her second career quarterfinal.
Linette came into this Australian Open with a career record of 3-6 in the event and an overall mark of 18-29 in the four grand slams. The last 10 days, she has wins over No. 16 Anett Kontaveit, No. 19 Ekaterina Alexandrova, No. 4 Caroline Garcia, and No. 30 Karolina Pliskova. She has dropped just one set along the way, to Kontaveit, and upset Pliskova 6-3, 7-5 in the quarterfinals.
Sabalenka has won both previous meetings, in China in 2019 and at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. Neither match was close, with Linette winning a total of seven games in the four sets. Sabalenka is a great returner, and it will take a miracle for Linette to pull off the upset in this match and move to the final. If looking to lower the odds, take Sabalenka in straight sets.
Rybakina Favored in Showdown
The semifinal at the top of the bracket is expected to be the most competitive of the Day 11 matches. No. 22 Elena Rybakina is -235 as she faces No. 24 Victoria Azarenka in a battle of former Grand Slam champions.
Rybakina won Wimbledon last summer in her first slam past the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Azarenka (+185) has won titles at Melbourne Park before, both in 2012 and 2013. She has a 5-3 career record in grand slam semifinals but has only played in one since 2013, a win at the 2020 U.S. Open.
Rybakina has been dominant in the Australian Open. She knocked off the pre-tournament favorite and World No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the round of 16 with a 6-4, 6-4 win. Rybakina took out No. 17 seed Jelena Ostapenko 6-2, 6-4 in the quarters, her third straight win against a better seed.
Azarenka is battle-tested in her career, and this is her best run at Melbourne Park in a decade. She knocked off No. 10 Madison Keys in three sets in the third round and toppled No. 8 Jessica Pegula 6-4, 6-1 in the quarters.
It will be tough for Azarenka to handle Rybakina’s power. She couldn’t at the Indian Wells tournament last March as Rybakina cruised to a 6-3, 6-4 win in their only previous meeting. Azarenka must use her baseline power coupled with veteran experience and craftiness to outlast Rybakina in the semifinals.
Unlike the other semifinal, this one goes three sets. But Rybakina ends Azarenka’s run and moves to her second grand slam final in the last seven months.
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