MyBookie’s Strategies for Betting the OVER/UNDER in March Madness

Now that the calendar has flipped over into the month of March, college basketball fans are surely rubbing their hands together in glee and preparing their strategies for betting. One of the biggest events on the sports calendar is almost upon us, with March Madness now closer than ever.

This is a tournament that pulls in bettors who don’t normally wager on college basketball on a regular basis, with people creating brackets and setting some of their bankroll aside to get in on all the action.

 

March Madness: Strategies for Betting the OVER/UNDER

Just like in the regular season, there are multiple ways to wager on college basketball during March Madness. For the purposes of this piece, we are going to focus specifically on the OVER/UNDER (point total).

We are going to provide some tips that we hope will help you cash more winning tickets over the course of the entire tournament, so let’s get right to it.

   

Understanding the Basics of Totals Betting

Before diving into strategies, it’s important to understand how point total betting works.

When sportsbooks set a total for a game, they are predicting the combined score of both teams. Bettors can wager on whether the actual total points scored will be over or under that number.

For example, if a game between Duke and Kentucky has a total set at 145.5 points:

• Betting the over means you believe the combined score will be 146 or higher.
• Betting the under means you expect the combined score to be 145 or lower.

The bookies adjust totals based on a variety of factors, including team offensive and defensive efficiencies, pace of play, and public betting trends.

 

Key Factors to Consider When Betting on Totals

 

1. Pace of Play

One of the biggest influences on the total points scored in a game is the pace at which the teams play.

Teams that push the tempo and take quick shots tend to generate higher-scoring games, while teams that run slow, methodical offenses and prioritize defense lead to lower-scoring affairs.

The team that controls the pace of play can prove to be the one that dictates whether the total falls OVER or UNDER.

To analyze pace, look at Possessions Per Game (PPG) and Adjusted Tempo (available on sites like KenPom.com).

If two fast-paced teams are playing, the over may have value, while two slow-paced teams could favor the under.

 

2. Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Is a Major Factor

Not all fast teams score efficiently, and not all slow teams struggle offensively. A team’s ability to score efficiently (points per possession) and its ability to prevent opponents from scoring are critical factors in betting totals.

• Offensive Efficiency: Points scored per 100 possessions.
• Defensive Efficiency: Points allowed per 100 possessions.

If both teams have high offensive efficiency and poor defense, betting the over might be smart.

Conversely, two strong defensive teams could lead to an under. Of course, things don’t always play out this way, especially if a team gets behind early and needs to adjust their style of play.

 

3. Putting the Spotlight on Matchup and Playing Styles

Certain matchups favor specific scoring trends. For example:

• A team that thrives on transition offense might struggle against a disciplined defensive team that slows the game down.
• If one team heavily relies on three-pointers and faces an elite perimeter defense, it could result in lower scoring than expected.
• Analyzing team tendencies and past performance against similar styles can give you an edge in predicting total points.

 

4. The Impact of Three-Point Shooting

The three-pointer has transformed college basketball. Teams that attempt a high volume of threes introduce more volatility into scoring totals. A hot shooting night can send a game over, while poor outside shooting can suppress scoring.

When betting totals, check:

• Three-Point Shooting Percentage (both teams’ success rates from beyond the arc)
• Opponent Three-Point Defense (how well teams contest shots)
• Shot Volume from Deep (teams that live or die by the three can lead to wide swings in scoring outcomes)

 

5. Free Throw Rate and Foul Tendencies

Games with frequent fouls and free throws can lead to higher-scoring games, especially late in close contests when teams foul intentionally.

• Free Throw Rate: Teams that get to the line often or allow a lot of free throws tend to push games over the total.
• Foul Tendencies: Teams with aggressive defenses that rack up fouls may create high-scoring affairs due to free throws.

 

6. The Impact of Playing on Neutral Courts

March Madness games are played at neutral sites, which can impact scoring. Some factors to consider:

• Shooting Backdrops: Unfamiliar arenas can disrupt three-point shooting, leading to lower-scoring games.
• Fatigue and Travel: Teams traveling far distances or playing multiple games in a short span might have tired legs, affecting scoring efficiency.
• Crowd Influence: Some neutral sites still favor certain teams due to regional fan presence, which can impact game flow and scoring.

 

7. Betting Market Movements and Public Perception

The public loves betting overs because people naturally want to see high-scoring games. Sportsbooks often move totals higher than they should be due to public betting trends.

Reverse Line Movement: If a game’s total drops despite heavy action on the over, it may indicate sharp bettors are on the under.

Late Line Moves: Pay attention to last-minute changes, as they can signal insider knowledge, such as injury reports or unexpected game pace adjustments.

 

Common Mistakes Bettors Make When Wagering on the Point Total

Playing the OVER/UNDER in March Madness seems simple enough, but there are many casual players who basically reduce their selections to a coin flip. Some of the most common mistakes that they make include the following:

 

Focusing on One Team in a Matchup

While one team can certainly control the pace of play, they forget that it takes two teams to tango. Both teams play a role in dictating whether the total will fall OVER or UNDER, so take the time to research before making a wager on the point total.

 

Using a Small Sample Size When Researching

Simply looking at what a team did in the previous round of March Madness is not enough to dictate how things might play out in the next game. Teams may be forced to adjust their playing style, which includes slowing things down or speeding things up when playing a different opponent.

 

Not Looking at Other Factors

These include things like not paying attention to injuries, the number of games that a team has played in short succession, and how many OY games they have played. All of these can have an impact on how efficient a team is in all aspects of the game.

 

Advanced Strategies for Betting Totals

 

1. Consider Looking at Live Betting Opportunities

Watching games live allows you to gauge pace and adjust your bets accordingly. If teams are missing shots early but playing at a fast pace, an in-game over bet might have value.

Conversely, if a game starts slow and the total is adjusted upward, betting the under could be a good play.

 

2. Take a Look at First-Half Totals

If you expect scoring fluctuations, first-half totals can be a profitable angle. Some teams start fast and fade late, while others make halftime adjustments that impact second-half scoring.

 

3. Bet the UNDER Late in the Tournament

As the tournament progresses and stakes rise, games tend to slow down. Defensive intensity increases, and teams become more cautious with shot selection

Historically, unders have been profitable in the later rounds of March Madness.

 

4. Consider Injuries and Depth of the Bench

If a key scorer is out or a team lacks depth, it may struggle to maintain its usual scoring pace.

Checking injury reports and lineup changes is crucial before placing bets.

 

5. Weathering the Storm of Overtime Variance

One of the biggest risks with betting unders is the possibility of overtime, which can completely change the outcome of a bet.

If you’re betting on the UNDER, consider hedging with a small live bet on the over if the game is close late.

 

6. How do you approach the OVER/UNDER in games with high-scoring offenses?

If you have a pair of teams with high-scoring offenses, the feeling is that you should automatically play the OVER.

What you have to consider here, though, is that the point total may be set too high, which actually creates a good value proposition when betting on the UNDER.

 

7. How Do You Bet the OVER/UNDER in Games with Close Spreads?

In games with close spreads, teams are very evenly matched, but what impact might that have on the point total?

It really all depends on the factors we have already outlined. For example, has one team had an extra day of rest that could lead to them controlling the pace of the game?

Are both teams offensively or defensively inclined? Answering that question could point you in the right direction on which way to wager.

 

8. How Do You Find Value in OVER/UNDER Wagers in March Madness?

You need to take into account all the factors that we have already mentioned above. Again, a pair of high-scoring teams meeting up might lead to the bookies setting the total a little too high.

Alternatively, the number could be set too low when defensive teams meet up. You also have to look at mismatches, where we might see the favorite take the foot off the gas as they throw in bench players later in the game. That can have an impact on the total.

 

Other Spread Betting Tips you can Consider

When betting on a crazy upset-riddled season like the one we are having this year in the NCAAB lines, and you are entering the Madness of March that is filled with Cinderella teams and toss-up games; spotting the right SU or ATS picks can be absolutely torturing because there are no guarantees about what will happen in the hardwood.

OVER and UNDER

This is where college basketball betting on OVER and UNDER comes in handy, as it offers bettors a viable alternative to make good money without having to put as much as effort as is done in Spread and Moneyline betting.

Below, we are going to show you some of the strategies you can successfully use to increase your chances of profitable betting in OVER/UNDER NCAAB odds.

 

Strategies for Betting Over/Under in March Madness

 

Study the Trends

It can’t be stressed enough just how important knowing your teams and their total betting trends can prove to be big game-changers for you in March Madness betting.

And by trends, the reference here is being made to OVER/UNDER trends, offensive vs. defensive matchups, styles of play and any other factors that are related to scoring.

 

Example

A game between No. 8 Colorado and No.9 Connecticut sets up as a potential low-scoring UNDER affair for two reasons.

One, both teams have proven to be very good at taking care of the ball defensively this season, with Colorado known to contest shots and harass opposing offenses with constant pressure while UConn uses its physical players to lock down the paint.

Two, Colorado is an average shooting team—at best—so the Huskies won’t have to be worried about getting bullied by opposing sharpshooters.

 

Strategies for Betting Over/Under in March Madness: Use Current Form to Judge Your Picks

This point relates to trends, focusing on recent team performance. The Oregon Ducks, who started timidly, have improved with the dynamic combination of Dillon Brooks and Elgin Cook, becoming one of the best offenses in the country.

3 Pointers

Entering the Tourney, the Ducks have improved their three-point shooting, winning their last eight games, including consecutive victories against top-16 teams, and have scored at least 76 points in 17 of their last 18 games.

Expect No. 1 Oregon to dominate against Holy Cross/Southern, two weak teams, in a likely high-scoring game due to the Ducks’ impressive recent offensive performances.

 

Strategies for Betting Over/Under in March Madness: A Case for Injuries and Traveling

As you’ve probably heard a gazillion times, factors like injury of key players and long travels often make it difficult for teams to play their best, which in turn translates to low-scoring games.

The same goes for extreme cases of bad weather, though this should probably not be much of an issue considering the stadia used for the tournament are closed in-door courts that shouldn’t be affected much by weather.

To ensure that you don’t overestimate or underestimate a team’s potential; ensure that you have the most updated knowledge about such limiting/contributing factors to a game’s score.

And for a clear understanding of how such factors influence games, check out the story of Duke’s senior forward Amile Jefferson and how his injury has affected the team this season.

 

Conclusion

Betting on the total points in March Madness requires a deep understanding of pace, efficiency, matchups, and external factors.

By analyzing tempo, offensive and defensive metrics, foul tendencies, and public betting trends, you can identify profitable opportunities and improve your chances of making smart wagers.

No betting strategy is foolproof, but using data-driven analysis and staying disciplined in your approach will give you an edge.

Whether you prefer betting pre-game totals, in-game adjustments, or first-half lines, following these strategies can help you navigate the madness of March successfully.

   

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MyBookie’s Sportsbook Betting Guide | Betting on Sports

Check out our Sports Betting Guide to increase those winning when betting on any sports.

 

• Five Golden Rules of College Basketball Betting
• Betting Tips For College Basketball Bettors
• Strategies for Betting Over/ Under in March Madness
• How to Bet the First Round of March Madness
• Halftime Betting Strategies & Tips for March Madness this Season

 

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