Strategies for Betting Over/ Under in March Madness

Posted by Joe Solari on March 15, 2016 in

When betting on a crazy upset-riddled season like the one we are having this year in the NCAAB lines, and you are entering the Madness of March that is filled with Cinderella teams and toss-up games; spotting the right SU or ATS picks can be absolutely torturing because there are no guarantees about what will happen in the hardwood. This is where college basketball betting on OVER and UNDER comes in handy, as it offers bettors a viable alternative to make good money without having to put as much as effort as is done in Spread and Moneyline betting. Below we are going to show you some of the strategies you can successfully use to increase your chances of profitable betting in OVER/UNDER NCAAB odds.

Strategies for Betting Over/ Under in March Madness

Study the Trends

It can’t be stressed enough just how important knowing your teams and their total betting trends can prove to be big game-changers for you in March Madness betting. And by trends, the reference here is being made to OVER/UNDER trends, offensive vs. defensive matchups, styles of play and any other factors that are related to scoring.

For example, this year’s game between No. 8 Colorado and No.9 Connecticut sets up as a potential low-scoring UNDER affair for two reasons. One, both teams have proven to be very good at taking care of the ball defensively this season, with Colorado known to contest shots and harass opposing offenses with constant pressure while UConn uses its physical players to lock down the paint. Two, Colorado is an average shooting team—at best—so the Huskies won’t have to be worried about getting bullied by opposing sharpshooters.

Use Current Form to Judge Your Picks

This point is pretty much related to the first one that entails studying the trends, but the difference here is that your focus should be on the most recent form of teams. For example, the Oregon Ducks started the season rather shyly in terms of shooting and scoring, which greatly contributed to relatively low scores for a good number of UNDER games in the first half of the season. The Ducks have, however, since picked up the heat, with the dynamic combo of Dillon Brooks and Elgin Cook now leading one of the country’s best offenses. Entering the Tourney, the Ducks have been seeing their three-pointers fall (as opposed to their struggles at the start of the season), and as a result, they have not only won their last eight games in a row (including recent back-to-back victories over top-16 teams), but this sizzling Oregon team has scored at least 76 points in 17 of its last 18 games. Against Holy Cross/Southern, who are two of the worst teams in the field of 64, you can thus rightfully expect the No. 1 Oregon to deliver a thrashing in a potential high-scoring OVER affair, given the way the Ducks have been swimming with mega offensive scores in their recent games.

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A Case for Injuries and Traveling

As you’ve probably heard a gazillion times, factors like injury of key players and long travels often make it difficult for teams to play their best, which in turn translates to low-scoring games. The same goes for extreme cases of bad weather, though this should probably not be much of an issue considering the stadia used for the tournament are closed in-door courts that shouldn’t be affected much by weather. To ensure that you don’t overestimate or underestimate a team’s potential; ensure that you have the most updated knowledge about such limiting/contributing factors to a game’s score. And for a clear understanding of how such factors influence games, check out the story of Duke’s senior forward Amile Jefferson and how his injury has affected the team this season.