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#19 Illinois at Northwestern Lines: 2024 NCAAB Expert Analysis for the BIG Play Rivalry

#19 Illinois at Northwestern Lines: 2024 NCAAB Expert Analysis for the BIG Play Rivalry

Written by on December 6, 2024

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Fridays are always quiet around college basketball and the lone ranked team in action this Friday is No. 19 Illinois as it opens Big Ten play at in-state rival Northwestern with the Illini as short favorites on the NCAAB odds.

No. 19 Illinois at Northwestern: 2024 NCAAB Expert Analysis in Week 5.

Opening NCAAB Lines Subject to Change: Illinois -3.5 (total 144)
Expert Prediction: Illinois 74, Northwestern 71
 

Illinois Basketball -175

Illinois (6-1) has won three in a row since its lone loss to an excellent Alabama team. The Illini are off a 9-77 win over No. 19 Arkansas last Thursday at a neutral-site Thanksgiving Hoops Showcase as coach Brad Underwood broke a tie with J. Craig Ruby (1922-36) for fifth place in program history with 149 wins.

Illinois started the game on a 21-6 run and maintained at least a nine-point lead the rest of the way. The Illini hit 55% of their shots in the first half, including 9 of 16 from 3-point range, while Arkansas was 0 for 7 from long distance and shot 44% overall.

Tomislav Ivisic

Ivisic – playing against his twin brother, Arkansas’ Zvonimir Ivisic, for the first time — posted his fourth double-double of the season, finishing with 21 points and 10 rebounds. Making a career-high six 3-pointers, Ivisic also amassed three blocks, two steals, and two assists. His four double-doubles lead the Big Ten and are among the most nationally. Ivisic’s six 3-pointers are the most by an Illini in a game this season and the most since Terrence Shannon Jr. also recorded six against Western Illinois on Nov. 24, 2023.

Kasparas Jakucionis

Jakucionis registered a career-best 23 points, including 15 in the second half. Jakucionis went 7-for-13 from the field and 7-for-8 from the free-throw line, and he totaled six rebounds and four assists. Kylan Boswell poured in a season-high 18 points while shooting an efficient 6-for-10 from the field. Boswell dished out a team-high six assists, grabbed five rebounds, and made one block and one steal.

Three Pointers

The Illini went 15-for-31 from 3-point range, their third game with 15+ triples this season. The team’s 48.4% on 3-point attempts marked their best 3-point percentage this year. Seven Illini registered at least one 3-pointer against the Razorbacks, the third time this season with at least seven Illinois scorers with a triple. The Illini outrebounded the Razorbacks, 34-31, and has now won the rebounding battle in all seven contests this season. The Illini rank second in the nation with a scoring margin of +27.7.

The Streak

Thursday’s win snapped a two-game losing streak vs. top-25 ranked opponents for the Illini. The 13-point margin of victory vs. the 19th-ranked Razorbacks is the largest for an unranked Illini team against a top-25 opponent under Underwood. Illinois is No. 10 in the first NCAA NET rankings, the top mark in the Big Ten.

The Stats

Newcomers to the Illini roster have accounted for 91.2% of the team’s scoring so far (569 of 624 total points), with UI freshmen accounting for 38.6% of those points (241). Illinois leads the Big Ten and ranks among the top teams nationally in: 3-point attempts per game (3rd in NCAA, 33.9), 3-pointers made per game (7th, 11.9), total rebounds per game (1st, 47.9), rebound margin (1st, +15.3), defensive rebounds per game (2nd, 33.6), offensive rebounds per game (30th, 14.3), 3-point percentage defense (12th; .260), and blocks per game (18th, 5.6).

Illinois is opening Big Ten play on the road for the seventh time in the last nine seasons. The are 65-30 vs. the Wildcats in Evanston and have won 10 of the last 12 meetings overall, with the lone losses coming in the Illini’s last two visits to Welsh-Ryan Arena. Illinois is the winningest team in the Big Ten over the last five seasons, registering a 69-31 (.690) mark in league play. And when including the conference tournament, the Illini have a league-best 75 wins during this time span.

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Illinois at Northwestern Lines provided by MyBookie

 

Northwestern Basketball +141

Northwestern (6-3) opened Big Ten play on Tuesday and lost 80-79 at Iowa as Josh Dix swished a game-winning 3-pointer just before the buzzer. After Ty Berry went 1 of 2 at the free-throw line with 5.8 remaining to give Northwestern a 79-77 lead, Iowa got it past midcourt before calling a timeout with 0.8 seconds left. Brock Harding struggled to find an open teammate from the sideline before Dix came out well past the 3-point arc to swish a fade-away 3-pointer. Northwestern had rallied in the second half to take a 74-68 lead with 2:15 left.

Chris Collins

“We actually told our guys that was the play they were gonna run,” Wildcats coach Collins said. “They ran a very similar play against us five or six years ago and Bohannon made the same shot. It’s kinda like deja vu. I have to look at it. We had talked about just staying connected to those shooters, because with 0.8, really all they can do is catch and shoot.”

The Wildcats’ 79 points were the most points the Hawkeyes (allowed all season, as senior Brooks Barnhizer, graduate student Ty Berry and junior Nick Martinelli combined for 60 points. The three became the eighth trio of Wildcats to each score 19+ points in a game since 2005-06 and the first to do so since Northwestern upset No. 1 Purdue on Dec. 2, 2023, led by led by Boo Buie (31 points), Berry (21) and Ryan Langborg (20).

Brooks Barnhizer

Barnhizer tallied his second consecutive double-double with team-highs of 21 points and 10 rebounds, adding three assists and two steals while shooting 7-of-13 from the floor. It was his 15th career double-double and 10th career 20-point game. Berry had a season-high 20 points, canning 5-of-9 three-point attempts, while tying team-highs of four assists and two steals. His five treys were the most by a Wildcat this season. Martinelli added 19 points, five rebounds and a career-high four assists on 7-of-17 shooting.

Nick Martinelli

Martinelli is averaging 20.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game this season, and is one of only four high-major players posting at least those averages, and is joined by teammate Brooks Barnhizer (20.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG). Center Matthew Nicholson is one blocked shot away from 100 for his career, and is looking to become the seventh player in program history to tally triple-digit blocks. Derek Pardon (2015-19) was the last Wildcat to join that club during the 2018 season.

The Record

Over the last three seasons, Northwestern has won 50 total games, which ranks third among Big Ten schools, trailing Purdue and Illinois. NU has won 24 Big Ten Conference games over the last two seasons, trailing only Purdue and Illinois. Northwestern and Michigan State are the only two Big Ten teams to win at least one game in each of the 2022-23 and 2023-24 NCAA Tournaments.

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How to Bet Illinois at Northwestern Lines NCAA Basketball

When: Friday, 9 PM ET
Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena
TV: Big Ten Network
Stream: BTN Live

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Illinois vs Northwestern Last Meeting

Last season, the teams split with each winning a high-scoring game at home. Northwestern prevailed 96-91 in OT in Evanston when it was unranked and Illinois No. 10. Boo Buie scored 29 points and Brooks Barnhizer added 23 for the Wildcats, who scored the first nine points in overtime after Illinois’ Marcus Domask missed a jumper at the end of regulation. Coleman Hawkins had 22 points and 13 rebounds for Illinois. There were 18 lead changes and 15 ties. Friday’s matchup with Northwestern is the 189th in the series that dates back to the 1907-08 season. Illinois leads 144-44.

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2021 Illinois vs Northwestern
 

The Northwestern Wildcats are in the midst of a murderous stretch of schedule as the formerly ranked Wildcats look to end a two-game slide when they host rival and No. 12 Illinois on Thursday. The Illini will be favored on the NCAAB odds.

How to Bet Illinois at Northwestern NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

  • When: Thursday, 9 PM ET
  • Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena
  • TV: Big Ten Network
  • Stream: BTN+
  • Radio:com
  • Opening NCAAB Lines: TBA (Illinois will be favored)

Last Meeting

Being these are state rivals, they play twice each regular season. Illinois won both a season, although close. The one at Northwestern was 74-66. Alan Griffin set career highs with 24 points and six 3-pointers, and current Illini star Ayo Dosunmu scored 21. Kofi Cockburn finished 12 points and 14 rebounds. Pat Spencer led Northwestern with 18 points, and Miller Kopp scored 14. The Wildcats made just 5 of 20 3-pointers in remaining.

Why Bet on Illinois? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Illini (8-3) won their third in a row on Saturday, 66-58 over unranked Purdue in Champaign. Illinois was led by a strong performance from freshman Andre Curbelo, sophomore Kofi Cockburn’s second consecutive double-double, and Da’Monte Williams’ second double-double of the season.

Curbelo posted 8 points and 6 assists, steadying the Illini offense throughout the night. He posted a team-high +/- of +23. Cockburn scored 14 points and grabbed 10 rebounds. Williams made three three-point field goals and totaled 12 points while also securing 10 boards.

The game was a back-and-forth battle, but in the end the Illini defense and playmaking were too much to overcome. Illinois shot 48% on the night while holding Purdue to only 38%, scoring 13 points on the fastbreak compared to the Boilermakers’ two. Purdue is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, but Illinois topped the Boilermakers 39-33 on the boards.

Cockburn is averaging 20.4 points and 11.2 rebounds in Big Ten play while shooting 68.3%.  Williams leads the nation in three-point percentage at 67.9% (min. 20 attempts). Williams is 9-for-12 from three in Big Ten play.  Ayo Dosunmu had 12 points and five rebounds. Dosunmu is averaging 20.8 points and 6.2 rebounds in Big Ten play while shooting 48.8% and 43.8% from three.

Dosunmu and Cockburn are two of only four Big Ten players scoring 20 points per game in league play, along with Ron Harper Jr. of Rutgers (25.0). and Luka Garza of Iowa (24.0). Curbelo is playing nearly 25 minutes per game in Big Ten action, which is up from 19 minutes per game during Illinois’ nonconference slate. Eliminate his foul trouble against Minnesota and Rutgers and Curbelo’s influence on the 12th-ranked Illini in Big Ten play would likely be even greater than the 8.2 points, five assists and 3.6 rebounds he’s averaging.

Why Bet on Northwestern? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Wildcats come off an 85-66 loss at then-No. 16 Michigan on Sunday. It was the first time these teams had ever met while both were ranked in the Top 25 — but it was no contest after Michigan scored the last nine points of the first half. Michigan led 34-29 near the end of the first half when the Wolverines made three 3-pointers to go up 43-29 at the break.

“We tried to make a push at the end of the first half,” Northwestern coach Chris Collins said. “We cut it to five, and then they hit three 3s. I thought that was kind of the key moment of the game.”

Three Wildcats finished the night in double figures, led by Robbie Beran who scored 14 points on 6-of-10 shooting, 12 of which came in the second half. It marked Beran’s second-highest scoring output this season and his most against a Big Ten opponent since he scored 17 at Illinois last season on January 18, 2020.

Pete Nance finished in double figures for the third-straight game, adding 10 points on 5-of-7 shooting. Also joining Nance in double figures was Miller Kopp, who added 13 to go along with four rebounds. Both Nance and Kopp have now scored in double figures seven times on the season.

Northwestern guard Boo Buie was hurt in the first half on a play when he lost the ball near midcourt and a Michigan player went the other way for a dunk that made it 34-24. Buie remained down on the court and appeared to be holding his right knee, and he had to be helped slowly to the sideline. He was able to return but finished scoreless on 0-of-6 shooting.

Buie led the team in assists for the 8th consecutive game, finishing with four assists. His 49 assists through the first nine games are the most by any Wildcat since Bryant McIntosh had 51 assists in 2017.

Northwestern finished with 12 assists on the night, marking the 34th consecutive game in which they posted double-digit assists, the fourth-longest active streak of any D1 program. Northwestern forced 12 turnovers, hitting double digits in the category for the third time in four games.

Expert College Basketball Prediction

Illinois 76, Northwestern 73

 
 

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