Argentina vs Mexico Odds, Pick & Analysis

Lionel Messi and Argentina didn’t plan on heading into their Saturday match versus Mexico in danger of losing their group but Saudi Arabia upset Argentina in the Albiceleste’s first match. For Mexico, the 0-0 draw against Poland in their first was exactly the result they wanted. Will El Tri add to Argentina’s woes? Or will Messi and his mates bounce back with a stunning performance? Keep reading for FIFA World Cup Odds, analysis, and a free pick for Mexico versus Argentina.

2022 FIFA World Cup Betting Analysis: Argentina vs Mexico Group C Matchup

Argentina versus Mexico Betting Lines and Match Info

When: Saturday, Nov. 26 at 11:00 am ET

Where: Lusail Iconic Stadium, Lusail, Qatar

TV/Streaming: FS1

Handicap Odds: Mexico +0.5 +138 / Argentina -0.5 -177

Moneyline Odds: Argentina -172 / Mexico +510 / Draw +295

Total Odds: O 2.5 +105 / U 2.5 -132

Why Mexico is a good play versus Argentina

At the end of the match, Mexico and Poland were both at 0-0 but a closer look reveals that El Tri dominated and were unlucky not to have scored.

Mexico took 11 total shots versus Poland’s 6. The reason that’s important to note is because Poland boasts Robert Lewandowski as their top striker.

Not only that, but El Tri controlled possession 61% of the time. If Mexico plays a similar smart defensive game against Argentina, who knows? Saudi Arabia found pockets in the Albiceleste’s defense they could exploit. So could Mexico.

Mexico Last 5

D – 0-0 vs. Poland
L – 1-2 vs. Sweden
W – 4-0 vs. Iraq
L – 2-3 vs. Colombia
W – 1-0 vs. Peru

Mexico Predicted Starting Lineup

Ochoa
Moreno
Montes
Gallardo
Sanchez
Herrera
Chavez
Rodriguez
Martin
Vega
Antuna

Why Argentina is a good play versus Mexico

Argentina’s loss to Saudi Arabia is close to unforgiveable. The problem stemmed from a lack of focus. So if the Albiceleste takes on Mexico with the same lack of focus, they’re going to lose again.

But Argentina should have no trouble getting it together. Argentina has way too much talent, is too strong on every level, and has too much pride not to step it up against Mexico.

Argentina Last 5

L – 1-2 vs. Saudi Arabia
W – 5-0 vs. United Arab Emirates
W – 3-0 vs. Jamaica
W – 3-0 vs. Honduras
W – 5-0 vs. Estonia

Argentina Predicted Starting Lineup

Emiliano Martinez
Lisandro Martinez
Otamendi
Correa
Gonzalez
De Paul
Paredes
Di Maria
Messi
Lautaro Martinez
Alvarez

Final Betting Analysis: Mexico vs Argentina

Backing Mexico or the draw makes a lot of sense. El Tri played a fantastic match when controlling the pace of the game against Poland. Holding a team like Poland to 6 shots is a sign El Tri is at their best.

But Argentina remains one of the best teams at this year’s World Cup. Sure, the Argentinians made huge mental errors in their game versus Saudi Arabia. But a few corrections should so those issues.

The most important is to give Messi and Martinez more of a distributor role. If that requires starting Nicolas Gonzalez on top as the striker, then so be it.

Allowing Lionel and Lautaro to set up Gonzalez might be the best strategy to employ. Messi is all for it because he knows bowing out at the group stage in his final World Cup would leave a huge hole on his resume. Argentina rolls to at least a 2 goal victory.

World Cup Pick: Argentina -172

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