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Even though they lost their last match, Poland beat out Mexico for a Round of 16 spot due to goal differential. On Sunday, the Polish take on one of the favorites to win the World Cup tournament, France. The French easily won their group, which is why their final group stage game loss to Tunisia shouldn’t worry their fans. Will France continue to impress by stamping their ticket to the quarterfinals? Will Poland provide one of the bigger upsets at this year’s World Cup? Keep reading for FIFA World Cup Odds, analysis, and a free pick for France versus Poland.

2022 FIFA World Cup Betting Analysis: France vs Poland Matchup

FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022: Round of 16 – France versus Poland

When: Sunday, Dec. 4 at 10:00 am ET

Where: Al Thumama Stadium, Doha, Qatar

TV/Streaming: FS1

Handicap Odds: France -1.5 -116 / Poland +1.5 -109

Moneyline Odds: Poland +980 / France -340 / Draw +440

Total Odds: O 2.5 +130 / U 2.5 -102

Why Poland is a good play versus France

Before losing 0-2 versus Argentina in their last match, Poland had played great soccer, drawing 0-0 versus Mexico and then beating Saudi Arabia 2-0.

Based on those two matches, Poland could give France a scare. The Polish boast one of the top strikers, some calling the best striker, in the world. Robert Lewandowski knows how to break down a defense.

With Lewa calling the shots, the Polish should get some decent looks. Poland’s D fell apart late in their match versus Argentina. Often, Poland’s defense is much better than what it showed. Not only that, but Poland will play a strategy that cuts down on France’s shot attempts.

Poland Last 5

L – 0-2 vs. Argentina
W – 2-0 vs. Saudi Arabia
D – 0-0 vs. Mexico
W – 1-0 vs. Chile
W – 0-1 vs. Wales

Poland Predicted Starting Lineup

Szczesny
Glik
Kiwior
Bednarek
Zielinski
Zurkowski
Krychowiak
Zalewski
Gumny
Swiderski
Lewandowski

Why France is a good play versus Poland

After three group stage matches, it’s tough not to like France to not only beat Poland but to also win the World Cup. France blasted fellow knockout stage participant Australia 4-1.

Then in their second match, the French beat Denmark 2-1. We can throw out the 1-0 loss to Tunisia.

By the time France faced Tunisia, Kylian Mbappe and his mates had already locked down the group victory. The French didn’t play all out versus a team they knew they probably could have beaten if they had wanted.

France Last 5

L – 1-0 vs. Tunisia
W – 2-1 vs. Denmark
W – 4-1 vs. Australia
L – 2-0 vs. Denmark
W – 2-0 vs. Austria

France Predicted Starting Lineup

Lloris
Upamecano
Varane
Hernandez
Kounde
Griezmann
Rabiot
Tchouameni
Giroud
Mbappe
Dembele

Final Betting Analysis: Poland vs. France

In their first two matches, Poland looked like a team that could possibly upset France. But based on their performance versus Argentina, the French should win this match.

Poland will elongate the match by playing a defense first style. Then Poland will hope that Lewandowski or one of their other strikers gets the ball on a breakaway.

Versus many teams, Poland’s strategy might work. Against France, it shouldn’t. The French are on Argentina’s level. This match is single elimination, which means France won’t hold back. A 2 to 3 goal French victory is possible.

World Cup Pick: France -1.5

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