Final Four Odds, Picks, Betting Lines and Prediction: FAU vs San Diego State, Miami vs UConn

Since the NCAA Tournament started seeding in 1979, at least one top-three seed had made the Final Four each season but that has ended this year as No. 9 Florida Atlantic takes on No. 5 San Diego State in the first national semifinal from Houston on Saturday and No. 5 Miami faces No. 4 UConn in the nightcap.

2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks: Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State; Miami vs. UConn

No. 9 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 5 San Diego State (-2.5)

NCAA Basketball Odds and Lines
When: Saturday, April 1, at 6:10 PM ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
TV / Streaming: CBS, Paramount+

It’s the first time in the Final Four for both schools – neither a No. 5 seed nor No. 9 has ever won the national title. SDSU has a 2-0 record against FAU but the schools haven’t played since a 91-75 victory on December 28, 2002 in San Diego.

San Diego State became the first Mountain West program to win a game in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, upsetting No. 1 overall seed Alabama and then No. 6 Creighton. SDSU comes into the Final Four having won 14 of its last 15 (14-1) and 18 of its last 20 (18-2), with its two losses coming on the road at Nevada (14-2 at home) and at Boise State (14-1 at home), both which earned NCAA Tournament bids.

SDSU has won eight consecutive games, which is the third-longest active streak in the country. It didn’t did not allow a fast break point in the South Regional vs. Alabama or Creighton after allowing 25 in the first two rounds in Orlando (15 vs. College of Charleston and 10 vs. Furman). In four NCAA Tournament games this season, San Diego State has limited the opposition to 17.0 percent shooting from three-point range (16-for-94).

Senior Darrion Trammell was named to the All-Region Team as well as the South Region Most Outstanding Player. In four games, Trammell led the team with 12.8 points on 19-of-46 shooting (.413), including 8-of-21 (.381) from the deep with 4.0 rebounds in 27.3 minutes per game. Junior Lamont Butler was named to the All-Region Team. In his four games he shot 51.5 percent (17-of-33) from the floor while averaging 10.3 points, 3.8 assists and 3.5 rebounds.

San Diego State has won 31 games this season, tied for the second most in program history (2013-14). Only the 2010-11 squad led by Kawhi Leonard had more victories (34).

Florida Atlantic is just the fifth team since seeding began to make it all the way to the Final Four after having never won a tournament game in previous seasons. While the No. 9 Owls would be the lowest seed to ever win the national title, coach Dusty May’s squad boasts 35 wins, the most in an NCAA season since 2019 and is riding an 11-game winning streak.

Much like many of the Owls’ regular-season games, FAU has pulled out close wins by controlling the stretch run of the NCAA Tournament contests. The Owls have won by margins of one point (66-65, Memphis), three (79-76, Kansas State), seven (62-55, Tennessee) and eight (78-70, FDU) in the Big Dance.

The Owls are 11-1 in games decided by five points or less and 16-1 in games decided by nine points or less this year. Johnell Davis has been the star of the Big Dance, averaging 17.3 points and 7.9 boards per game.

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No. 5 Miami vs. No. 4 UConn (-6)

College Basketball Odds and Lines
When: Saturday, April 1, at 8:50 PM ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
TV / Streaming: CBS, Paramount+

These schools used to be Big East rivals so they have met 25 times (UConn leads 17-8) but not since November 2019.

Miami is in its first-ever Final Four, while UConn is back for the first time since 2014 when the Huskies won their fourth and last national title. Miami has played just one previous game in April, a 66-64 1 overtime loss to Stanford in the 2015 NIT title game (4/2/15).

The Huskies are Miami’s third straight foe ranked top-five (5) 5 in KenPom, including the second at No. 1 entering the game. Miami’s combined opponent seed total through four rounds (19) is the lowest of any ACC team to make the Final Four since the field expanded to 64.

This is the second Final Four bid of Coach Jim Larrañaga’s career, making him one of nine active DI head coaches with multiple trips. The Elite Eight victory over second-seeded Texas came 17 years to the day of his first such triumph when George Mason beat top-seeded Connecticut. Coach L and Larry Brown are the only coaches to take two different schools to the Final Four while seeded fifth or lower.

The Hurricanes’ 88 points in the comeback win over Texas in the Elite Eight marked their second-most ever in NCAA Tournament play, trailing only the 89 in the Sweet 16 win versus Houston. Their third-highest mark of 85 came in the Round of 32 victory over Indiana. Thus, Miami’s top three scoring performances in the NCAA Tournament have all come in a three-game, eight-day stretch.

Jordan Miller scored a game-high 27 points, his most in two seasons as a Hurricane and the second-most in his five-year career, in the Elite Eight win over Texas. He shot 7-of-7 from the floor and 13-of-13 from the line in the victory. In doing so, he became the first player with 27-plus points in an NCAA Tournament game on perfect shooting from the field and the stripe since Duke’s Christian Laettner on 3/28/92 versus Kentucky.

UConn (29-8), which has won 10 of its last 11 games, is coming off an impressive 82-54 win over Gonzaga last Saturday. The Huskies are led in scoring (17.1) and rebounding (7.5) by junior Adama Sanogo, while sophomore Jordan Hawkins, the MOP of the West Regional, is averaging 16.3 points per game. Senior Tristen Newton and junior Andre Jackson are the team leaders in assists (4.7), while freshman Donovan Clingan is the leader in blocked shots (1.84).

In 36 appearances in the NCAA Championship, UConn has only been a No. 4 seed once before this season — in the 2008 tournament. That season, the Huskies lost a first-round game to the University of San Diego, 70-69, in overtime at the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa, Fla. This season’s No. 4 seed is UConn’s highest seed since the Huskies were a No. 3 seed in the 2011 tournament.

UConn is making its sixth appearance in the NCAA Final Four. The Huskies own a record of 8-1 in their previous five appearances — going 2-0 in each of 1999, 2004, 2011, and 2014 to win the National Championship in those seasons. UConn’s lone loss in the Final Four occurred in 2009, bowing to Michigan State, 82-73, in the National Semifinals, held at Ford Field in Detroit.

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