We are at the stage of the college basketball season where we are all getting a little impatient as we wait for the start of March Madness.
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We still have 10 days to wait until all the action begins, but we can start to get serious about our brackets and wagering once Selection Sunday is out of the way and we know what the final matchups look like. Even though we still have to hang in there until all of that is done, there are some things we can do to prepare for wagering on the tournament, as there are some definite trends to be aware of that might well help us come out of the other side with some extra money in our pockets. There will, of course, be some major upsets, as there always are, but here are some trends that could help you safely navigate March Madness betting.
The #1 Seed is Basically A First Round Lock
If you are looking to make some easy money in the opening round and settle into a groove, then the #1 seeds are the way to go. Last season, we saw FDU beat Purdue in a stunning upset, but that was only the second time in the history of the tournament that a #16 seed had toppled a #1 seed, with the current record in those matchups sitting at 150-2. That is a trend that simply cannot be ignored, and while you are not going to get great odds on those #1 seeds for the straight up win, putting them together in a parlay ticket can be a little more rewarding.
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Know When To Get Off The Underdog
Every year, we always seem to have one underdog team that upsets the odds and goes on a deep run, but the harsh reality is that they will only go so far. Even if one of your underdog picks spring the upset in the opening round, there is no guarantee that they are going to continue drawing on that magic in Round 2. The harsh reality of March Madness is that it is a higher seeded team that generally goes on to win the whole thing. In the history of the tournament, the lowest seeded team to win it was Villanova, who became National Champions in 1985 as the #8 seed. The cream always seems to find a way to rise to the top, so don’t get too enamored with underdogs.
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The 7 Versus 10 Trend
Perhaps the toughest games to wager on are those that feature teams who are, for the most part, pretty evenly matched. There are some bettors who will skip these games entirely, opting instead to go with the low hanging fruit, but there is some money to be made here. For example, in the games that have a #7 seed going against a #10 seed, the higher seeded team has won close to 61% of those matchups. It is not a staggeringly high percentage, but it’s one that could put you in profit if you can zero in on those matchups and narrow it down to the ones that seem most likely to be profitable. Trends are great, but you still need to put some work in.
A #1 Seed Wins the National Championship More Often Than Not
If all you are really concerned about is wagering on a team to win the National Championship, it can seem a little daunting when you look at the initial bracket. The fact of the matter, though, is that it really shouldn’t be that way. In the history of March Madness, a #1 seed has won it 63% of the time, with the #2 seed winning it 13% and the #3 seed winning 11% of the time. In short, you could essentially be looking at a 1 in 4 chance of getting it right if you solely focus on the #1 seeds in the tournament. Yes, that all seems rather simplistic, but if you are not all about breaking down games to try and figure out a winner, and simply want to pick one team, you could just stick with a #1 seed.
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The #8 Versus #9 Trend
If you are looking for underdogs and value, these might be the matchups to focus on in the opening round of March Madness. These tend to be the toughest games to pick, but there is a trend that you might want to pay attention to. In the last 52 meetings between the #8 and #9 seeds, the underdog has covered 30 times. While that is a hit rate of about 58%, it is more than enough to put you in profit when you consider the underdog odds. Again, you may want to get a little pickier in choosing which games to wager on, as there is zero guarantee that this trend will continue at the same rate in perpetuity.
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Watch Out for Winning Streaks
It doesn’t really seem to matter which sport you talk about, when it comes to the postseason, the teams entering the playoffs on a winning run tend to make a deep run. With that in mind, let’s talk about a trend that applies to winning runs and March Madness. Specifically, we are looking at the Sweet 16 with this trend, as that is where the streaks tend to really come into play. When we reach this stage of the tournament, look for teams that have a winning run of 10 games or more, as they tend to be on a roll that is tough to break.
These are just a few of the trends that you should perhaps be looking at when it comes time to start wagering on March Madness. As convincing as some of these may be, just remember that March Madness is so popular because of the unpredictable nature of the tournament. There are going to be some losses along the way, so just accept that and carry on.
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| Round | City | Venue | Dates | Host |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Four | Dayton, Ohio | UD Arena | March 19 – 20 | University of Dayton |
| First/Second | Brooklyn. N.Y. | Barclays Center | March 22 -24 | Atlantic 10 Conference |
| First/Second | Charlotte, N.C. | Spectrum Center | March 21 – 23 | University of North Carolina at Charlotte |
| First/Second | Indianapolis | Gainbridge Fieldhouse | March 22 – 24 | IUPUI / Horizon League |
| First/Second | Omaha, Neb. | CHI Health Center | March 21 – 23 | Creighton University |
| First/Second | Pittsburgh | PPG Paints Arena | March 21 -23 | Duquesne University |
| First/Second | Salt Lake City | Vivint Smart Home Arena | March 21 – 23 | University of Utah |
| First/Second | Spokane, Wash. | Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena | March 22 – 24 | University of Idaho |
| First/Second | Memphis, Tenn. | FedExForum | March 22 – 24 | University of Memphis |
| East Regional | Boston | TD Garden | March 28 – 30 | Boston College |
| South Regional | Dallas | American Airlines Center | March 29 -31 | Big 12 Conference |
| Midwest Regional | Detroit | Little Caesars Arena | March 29 – 31 | University of Detroit Mercy / Oakland University |
| West Regional | Los Angeles | Crypto.com Arena | March 28 – 30 | Pepperdine University |
I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?
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2022 March Madness Trends Worth Considering
NCAA Basketball March Madness Betting Trends to Keep In Mind When Wagering
This season’s NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament tips off on March 15. From March 15 to the April 4 College Basketball National Championship, the 68 best teams in the nation will duke it out for the right to cut down the nets. The NCAA Tournament is three weeks of intense hoops action and possible profitable options. Check out the March Madness Betting trends that you should have on your radar for the upcoming tournament.
2022 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament
- When: March 15 – April 4
Back teams with top tournament coaches
Great regular season coaches aren’t always terrific tournament coaches. Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, as an example, rarely gets his team to peak during the tournament.
Also, as great as Coach K has been during his career, Duke hasn’t played in a Final Four since 2015 when they won it all.
This year, a couple of excellent 2021 Final Four coaches have teams with a real shot at winning the title. Mark Few’s Gonzaga Bulldogs are again loaded. The Zags have gone to the Final Four and reached the championship game twice since 2017.
The other coach is Baylor’s Scott Drew. Baylor would have been a Final Four team in 2020 if the pandemic hadn’t caused the tourney’s cancellation. Last season, Baylor beat the Zags for the title.
The final coach to consider, and this should surprise nobody, is John Calipari at Kentucky. Coach Cal has led Big Blue to 4 Final Four appearances since 2009. He might have the best team he’s ever had in Lexington.
Defense first teams rule
Teams that play lockdown defense, like the Baylor Bears, Arizona Wildcats, Houston Cougars, and Texas Tech Red Raiders, often cover in tournament games.
Arizona, especially, looks like a solid team to back to cover the spread. The Cats not only have a lockdown defense, but they’re also one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation.
Baylor has bumped their scoring average to close to 77 per game. The Bears can hang if you want to run. Or they can lockdown on defense, like when they beat Texas 68-61 on Feb. 28.
Back teams with top guards play
Speaking of Baylor and Arizona, teams with solid guards almost always go further in the NCAA Tournament than teams that rely on their frontcourts.
Baylor has a great three-guard set with James Akinjo, who actually played for Arizona in 2021, Adam Flagler and Kendall Brown.
Zona has a terrific backcourt led by player of the year candidate Benedict Mathurin. The Auburn Tigers, Wisconsin Badgers, and Kentucky Wildcats all have excellent guards.
Villanova’s Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore are fantastic. If Nova makes the Final Four, it will be because Gillespie and Moore have had a great tournament.
12-seeds over 5-seeds isn’t a myth
12-seeds beating 5-seeds isn’t a myth. In 2019, three 12-seeds upset 5-seeds: Liberty over Mississippi State, Murray State over Marquette, Oregon against Wisconsin.
Then last year, Oregon State defeated Tennessee. Since 1985, a total of 50 12-seeds have upset their 5-seed opponents.
Multiple 12-seed upsets have happened in 14 tournaments. Three 12-seeds beating 5-seeds has happened 5 times, including back-to-back in 2013 and 2014.
When in doubt during the first couple of rounds, take the points
Underdogs often play well in the first two rounds because favored teams have no idea about dogs. Teams from Power 5 Conferences get to know their rivals.
But when they face a team they have zero knowledge about, the favored squad becomes confused. The reason upsets don’t happen as often in the Sweet 16 is that by the time we’re down to the final 16 teams, favored squads have two games to study.
Coaches make adjustments in the Sweet 16, which is why favored teams often move from the Round-of-16 to the Elite Eight.
Don’t over handicap when picking your Final Four teams
In the 2016 Final Four, a single 1-seed, a couple of 2-seeds, and 10-seed Syracuse battled. 2017 saw 7-seed South Carolina, 3-seed Oregon, and a couple of 1 seeds, Gonzaga and North Carolina, make the Final Four.
Don’t over handicap when choosing either Final Four teams or the National Championship winner. In 2018, 1-seed Villanova, 1-seed Kansas, 3-seed Michigan, and 11-seed Loyola Chicago made the Final Four. In 2019, 3-Texas Tech, 2-Michigan State, 1-Virginia, and 5-Auburn played for the title.
Then last season, 2-Houston, 11-UCLA, and two 1-seeds, Baylor and Gonzaga played in the Final Four. So when picking your Final Four teams, choose no more than one team that’s a 3-seed or higher.
When choosing the National Championship, lean on picking a 1-seed. Villanova won the title in 2016 as a 2-seed. But North Carolina in 2017, Villanova in 2018, 2019 winner Virginia and Baylor last season were all 1-seeds.
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