New York vs Baltimore | MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Never has one division had all five teams finish with a winning record, but thanks to the excellent play at the end of the first half by the Baltimore Orioles, every AL East team is at least .500. Baltimore hosts the first-place Yankees on Friday with New York a solid favorite on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Yankees at Orioles MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Camden Yards
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jameson Taillon/Tyler Wells
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Yankees -155, Orioles +145 (total 9)

Why Bet on NY Yankees?

New York is at a major disadvantage in one regard here because it had to play a doubleheader in Houston on Thursday (and didn’t play well) and then obviously fly late to Baltimore.

Second baseman DJ LeMahieu didn’t start Game 2 but a big first game against the Astros with a homer and two walks. He’s been excellent in the month of July thus far with a .350 average and 15 walks in 16 games this month, giving him a .487 OBP. All-Star catcher Jose Trevino also sat Game 2 in Houston. Trevino started the first game of the twin bill but went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts.

Giancarlo Stanton didn’t start Game 1 in Houston but did Game 2 and should be good to go Friday. Stanton (1-for-2, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI) was named the All-Star Game MVP after hitting a game-tying two-run HR in the fourth inning off the Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin. He joined Mariano Rivera (2013) and Derek Jeter (2000) as the only three Yankees to be named the All-Star MVP (since the award was established in 1962).

The Yankees have scored at least 10 runs in an MLB-best 16 games this season. No other team has more than 10 such games. The Yanks recorded just six such games in 2021.

It’s right-hander Jameson Taillon on the mound Friday. Taillon (10-2) allowed one over six innings last Saturday in a win over the Red Sox. Taillon coughed up a solo homer to Rafael Devers in the first inning but felt no pressure as the Yankees offense clobbered the Red Sox pitchers. The 30-year-old righty racked up five strikeouts and has a 3.86 ERA and 82 strikeouts on the year.

Taillon was possibly in line to start Game 2 on Thursday in Houston but the team instead activated Domingo German off the injured list to do so. Taillon was also roughed up by the Astros earlier this year but has a 4.40 ERA in three starts against the O’s this season, allowing seven runs in 14 1/3 innings.

“We just ended up wanting to give Taillon an extra day (of rest),” Manager Aaron Boone said.

Why Bet on Baltimore?

The Orioles had an unlikely 10-game winning streak at the end of the first half but then closed it by losing two of three at the Rays. Baltimore was off on Thursday so its bullpen is good to go.

Outfielder Austin Hays closed a strong first half by 2-for-4 with a solo home run and an additional run scored in Sunday’s 7-5 loss to the Rays. After slumping early in July while battling a sore wrist, Hays has gotten back on track with multiple hits in three of his last four games leading into the All-Star break. He’s gone 8-for-16 (.500) with two doubles, one homer and five runs in that span. Overall, Hays has a .270/.325/.454 slash line, 12 homers, 46 RBI, 45 runs scored, a stolen base and 22 doubles through 85 contests.

Closer Jorge Lopez was selected for the All-Star Game and did pitch in it. Lopez has collected 17 saves in 21 opportunities this season, pitching to a 4-5 record with a 1.62 ERA (8 ER/44.1 IP) in 40 games. He has struck out 51 batters while walking 15, limiting opponents to a .167/.254/.263 (26-for-156) slash line with a 0.92 WHIP. His 17 saves rank sixth in the AL and 11th in MLB…He has recorded six saves of more than 1.0 inning, tied for the most in the majors this season (Scott Barlow, KC); since 1993, only two Orioles have recorded more such saves in one season (Chris Ray, 9 in 2006 and Armando Benítez, 7 in 1997.

The Orioles have had 54 games decided by two runs or fewer this year, most in the American League. The O’s have gone 27-27 in those games, tied for the second-most wins in such games in MLB with the Milwaukee Brewers (27-21). Last year, the Orioles played 63 games decided by two runs or fewer, tied for the fewest in MLB. They finished the 2021 season with a 24-39 record in those games, the second-fewest wins in MLB.

It’s Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.38) on the mound. Wells surrendered three runs in 5 2/3 innings last Friday in a loss to the Rays. Wells turned in three scoreless innings to begin the contest before Yu Chang hit his first of two RBI doubles in the fourth. The 6-foot-8 righty has allowed three runs in each of his last two outings after yielding a combined three runs over his previous four. He’s now sporting a 3.38 ERA with a 59:21 K:BB through 85.1 frames. Wells has turned himself into the Orioles’ ace, following the loss of John Means until 2023.