NBA Betting Trends: How to Understand and BasicsAnalyze Them

Talk to anyone who bets on sports about their process, and you will find that there are all kinds of different systems and methods of wagering out there.

What you will also likely find, though, is that the majority of those bettors will talk about using betting trends as part of their process.

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The goal is to find trends that help you find games that have a better chance of ending with you cashing in a winning ticket.

This is not as simple as looking for a team on a winning streak, as there is more to it than that, so let’s get into NBA betting trends and how you can use them to your advantage.

1. Understand the Basics of NBA Betting Trends

Before we get into betting trends analysis, we are going to assume that some of you might be new to sports betting in general, so let’s get rolling with the basics. This means looking at the NBA bets that are available to you on every single game.

You may want to focus on just one of these options, but as you learn about NBA betting trends, you may well become more comfortable playing across the board.

The basic bets available to you are as follows:

Against the Spread (ATS): Indicates how well a team performs relative to the point spread.
Over/Under (Totals): Reflects how often games go over or under the projected total points.
Moneyline Trends: Focuses on straight-up wins and losses without considering the spread.

2. Use Reliable Data Sources

The great news for those of you interested in betting trends analysis is that there are all kinds of different reliable sources out there, starting with the most obvious option:

NBA official website for schedules, statistics, and injury updates, all of which you can also get on ESPN.
Betting websites like Action Network, Covers, or Odds Shark for ATS and over/under data.
Advanced analytics platforms like Basketball Reference or NBA Stats for in-depth performance metrics.

By using all of these sources on a daily basis, you will quickly get the hang of how to find the information you need without wasting too much time.

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3. Analyze Historical Data

You can pick up a ton of great information on teams and individual players by digging into historical data, all of which is easy to find online. Let’s take a quick look at what we are talking about here:

a. Team Trends

Performance against other teams, regardless of current standings.
Home vs. away records.
How teams perform after a win or a loss.

b. Player Trends

Individual player metrics, such as points, assists, and rebounds.
Impact of a team after losing a key player to injury.
Matchups against specific opponents.

c. Situational Trends

Back-to-back games and travel schedules.
Performance in high-pressure games, such as rivalry games and playoff matchups.
How well a team plays on specific days or months.

4. Track Betting Line Movements

If you know anything about betting on sports, it’s that the odds can change based on a variety of different factors. When the line moves may offer some clues as to how to wager”

Early Line Movements: Early shifts are often caused by sharp bettors playing their money.
Late Line Movements: Injuries can have an impact here, especially in game time decisions, but it could also mean that heavy bets are being played in one direction or another.

5. Consider External Factors

While the current form is something to pay attention to, there are several other factors that can have an impact on how a game might play out. These include things like injuries, long road trips, and even betting bias.

6. Use Trend-Specific Tools and Software

There are a lot of people who find NBA betting trends by keeping their own notes, sometimes on an Excel spreadsheet. This is a time-consuming practice, especially when you consider that there are tools and software available that will track trends and create betting models to help you make winning decisions.

It should be noted, though, that these tools and apps are often of the paid variety, but it can be a worthwhile purchase if you plan on wagering regularly on the NBA. Most of these types of software offer free trials, so try them out and find the one that works best for you.

7. Identify and Avoid Mistakes

While betting trends analysis is one of the most effective ways to make smarter bets over the long haul, it is worth noting that there are common mistakes that can impact your play, such as:

Using small sample sizes – The NBA season is long, and teams will go through ups and down. Relying on data from the past week or so will not give you a very clear picture of the potential outcome of a game.
Chasing losses – While analyzing trends will help your betting game, it is not an exact science, which means you will lose. Accept that as fact and do not make rash bets to try and make up for those inevitable losses.
Not paying attention to context – Yes, a team may be terrible against the spread over the last 10 games, but why is that happening? Were there injuries to contend with, or perhaps a long road trip? Take every factor into account.

8. Don’t Rely Solely on NBA Betting Trends

Analyzing trends will certainly help you make smarter bets, but there are other things you need to consider before diving in.

Do not be swayed by public opinion, as not every bettor puts in the same level of work as you do, so they may be wrong. You also need to manage your bankroll, which includes shopping different bookies to find the best odds.

9. Keep Records and Continuously Learn

It is always a good idea to track your wagers, which can be done with a betting journal where you take notes about NBA betting trends and why you made specific bets.

This logging can help you identify what’s working and what isn’t, allowing you to adjust your wagers so that you win on a more consistent basis.

Conclusion

As you can see, there is a lot that goes into betting trends analysis in the NBA, or any other sport for that matter.

If you have never paid much attention to trends in the past, give yourself some time to learn the impact of all those trends, which might mean keeping wagers small while you test different trends.

Put in the work, and you might just find that you end up cashing more tickets than usual.

NBA STANDINGS UPDATE ‼️

▪️ BOS moves to 21-5
▪️ NYK jumps to 3rd in East
▪️ MIN & PHX win, tied for 6th in West
▪️ DAL tied for 3rd in West

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— NBA (@NBA) December 16, 2024