Bucks vs Heat

Bucks vs Heat | 2020 -2021 NBA Expert Analysis

Written by on December 29, 2020

A rematch of the 2020 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals highlights the busy NBA schedule on Tuesday as the Milwaukee Bucks visit the Miami Heat, with the Bucks opening as short favorites on the NBA odds. Miami is expected to be without star Jimmy Butler.

How to Bet Bucks at Heat NBA Odds & TV Info

  • When: Tuesday, 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: AmericanAirlines Arena
  • TV: TNT
  • Stream: TNT app
  • Radio:com
  • NBA Odds: Bucks -4 (total 222.5)

Last Meeting

The teams played in the East semifinals in the Orlando bubble with the Heat finishing off the Bucks in a five-game surprise with a 103-94 victory on Sept. 8. Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo, the league’s two-time reigning MVP, couldn’t play because of a sprained right ankle. The NBA’s No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs just didn’t have enough without him.

Miami also won the regular-season series 2-1 – the Heat have won six of the last seven against Milwaukee at home. The Heat are all-time versus the Bucks during the regular season, including 36-20 in home games and 34-25 in road games.

Why Bet on Milwaukee? | 2020 -2021 NBA Expert Analysis

The Bucks (1-2) were upset 130-110 at the Knicks on Sunday. New York led by as much as 28 against the team that had the best record in the NBA the previous two seasons. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 27 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals for his first 25/10/5 game of the season.  Last season, Antetokounmpo tallied 25 games with 25+ points, 10+ rebounds and 5+ assists, which were the second-most in the NBA.

The Bucks were 7 for 38 (18%) behind the arc against the Knicks. They also allowed the Knicks to shoot 54% from the field and 59% from 3-point range. Khris Middleton had 22 points in the loss. Middleton has now scored 20 points each game this season (career-long streak to begin a season). Through three games, Middleton is leading the team in scoring (26.7 ppg) and assists (6.0 apg), while shooting 52.8% from the field and 45.5% from three.

Jrue Holiday, who had 64% of his shots in his first two games with the Bucks, shot 4 for 10 for eight points. Bobby Portis played well vs. his former Knicks team on Sunday, scoring a season-high 17 points on 7-of-12 shooting with seven rebounds, two assists, one steal and one block.

Donte DiVincenzo continued his strong 3-point shooting to start the season Sunday as he went 2-for-4 from three and scored 10 points against the Knicks. The third-year guard is now shooting 61.5% from beyond the arc this season, and 57.7% overall, and has scored in double figures every game.

The Bucks will not only play in Miami on Tuesday but also Wednesday. It’s the first of six back-to-backs for Milwaukee in the First Half of the 2020-21 season and one of three road-road back-to-backs. This is also the first of four times in the First Half where the Bucks will play the same team in consecutive games.

Why Bet on Miami? | 2020 -2021 NBA Expert Analysis

The Heat (1-1) have been off since a 111-98 win over New Orleans on Christmas. Duncan Robinson scored a team-high 23 points and his seven made 3-pointers tied an NBA record for most triples on Christmas Day. Robinson had six triples in the first half alone.

Avery Bradley made his Heat debut on Christmas Day, scoring 12 points with two 3-pointers, four assists, two rebounds and two steals. Bradley did his damage in 28 minutes and his defense was tremendous. Bradley was notably effective against Pelicans guard J.J. Redick, holding the veteran shooter to just 1-of-7 from the floor. Robinson said after the game: “I’ve never seen someone play defense the way [Bradley] does.”

Goran Dragic was terrific in 27 minutes Friday, scoring 18 points with nine assists, four steals and two rebounds. Miami navigated the absence of Jimmy Butler (ankle) in the second half. Dragic was a big part of the success, helping Miami tie a franchise record with 13 made threes in the first half.

Butler (ankle stiffness) is considered doubtful for Tuesday vs. the Bucks, coach Erik Spoelstra said. Andre Iguodala started Friday’s second half in place of Butler, who recorded a career-high seven steals in Miami’s Opening Night Game at Orlando. His seven steals also marked the most in a season-opener in Heat franchise history. Butler had 19 points and seven assists in the opener and four points, six rebounds and five assists on Christmas before leaving.

If Butler is unable to go, second-year guard Kendrick Nunn could replace him in the starting lineup. Spoelstra has gone with different lineups in each of the first two games, with Meyers Leonard inserted in the opening power rotation Friday in place of Moe Harkless. Leonard scored nine points with three 3-pointers, two rebounds and one assist in 20 minutes after not even playing in the season opener after Miami inked him to a two-year, $20 million this offseason.

Game Trends
  • Bucks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
  • Bucks are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Miami.
  • Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
  • Under is 19-6-1 in the last 26 meetings in Miami.
Expert Prediction
  • Bucks 116, Heat 113

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