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Expect one of the first round’s most competitive matches when 4-Arkansas takes on 13-Vermont in Buffalo, New York on Thursday night. The West Region battle pits two of the top squads in the country against each other. Will the higher seed prevail? Or will upperclassmen-laden Vermont show the Razorbacks why they’re a wise guy choice to make it to the Sweet 16? Check out March Madness Odds, analysis, and a free pick for Arkansas Razorbacks versus Vermont Catamounts.

Men’s College Basketball West Region: #4 Arkansas vs #13 Vermont

Arkansas Razorbacks versus Vermont Catamounts Betting Info

When: Thursday, March 17 at 9:20 pm ET

Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY

TV/Streaming: TNT

Spread Odds: Arkansas -5

Moneyline Odds: Vermont +180 / Arkansas -220

Total Odds: O 139 ½ -110 / U 139 ½ -110

Why bet on Arkansas versus Vermont?

Arkansas has one of the nation’s best defenses. The Arkansas Razorbacks allow 68.2 points per game. Opponents shoot just 40.9% from the field and just 32.6% from three. JD Notae has become a star. The 6’ 2” guard averages 18.9 points, 4.4 boards, and 3.6 assists per game. Arkansas’ speed should give the Catamounts fits.

Arkansas Razorbacks Offensive Averages

Points/G: 77.3

FG %: 44.0

3PT %: 31.1

FT %: 74.9

Rebounds/G: 35.3

Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Averages

Points/G: 68.2

FG %: 40.9

3PT %: 32.6

FT %: 72.3

Rebounds/G: 31.5

Why bet on #13 Vermont versus #4 Arkansas?

Vermont has lost 5 games this season, but 4-of-5 losses happened before Dec. 8. Not only that, but the fifth loss happened in overtime to underdog Hartford. During the American East Tournament, Vermont blasted all three of their opponents, covering the spread in 3 straight and the spreads were enormous: -23 versus NJIT, -21 versus Binghamton and -16 against UMBC.

Vermont Catamounts Offensive Averages

Points/G: 74.0

FG %: 48.6

3PT %: 35.8

FT %: 75.1

Rebounds/G: 31.9

Vermont Catamounts Defensive Averages

Points/G: 61.5

FG %: 41.4

3PT %: 34.4%

FT %: 69.2%

Rebounds/G: 27.4

#4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs #13 Vermont Catamounts Betting Trends

Catamounts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of 20 or more points
Vermont is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on a Thursday
Under is 5-1 in the Catamounts last 6 games
Razorbacks are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games
Arkansas is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games on a Thursday
Over is 6-0 in the Razorbacks’ last 6 games

#4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs #13 Vermont Catamounts Betting Analysis

Not only did Vermont beat their three opponents in the American East Tournament, but they dominated. The Catamounts blasted NJIT 98-59, destroyed Binghamton 74-42, and took apart UMBC 82-43.

Granted, Arkansas is much better than any of those three teams. But the Razorbacks shoot less than 32% from three and only 44% from the field.

So to beat the Catamounts, Arkansas must turn the game into a shootout. That probably won’t happen and if it does, Vermont can run almost as well as Arkansas.

More importantly, Arkansas lost 64-82 to Texas A&M in their last. In that game, the Razorbacks shot just 43% from the field and 17% from three. Vermont’s top player, Ryan Davis, averages 57.9% from the field and 40% from three.

Any way we look at this matchup, Vermont has the edge. All five of Vermont’s starters are seniors. If Arkansas doubles Davis, he can throw it to guard Ben Shungu, who shoots 52.1% from the field and 43.6% from three. Forget the spread. The Catamounts win this straight up.

NCAAM Pick: Vermont Moneyline