#11 Baylor vs TCU NCAA Basketball Odds and Expert Analysis with the Horned Frogs as Betting Favorites

The second game of ESPN’s Big Monday doubleheader is from the Big 12 as No. 11 Baylor visits unranked TCU with the Horned Frogs as short favorites on the NCAAB odds. Both teams will be NCAA Tournament bound regardless of what happens Monday.

2024 NCAA Basketball Betting & Expert Analysis #11 Baylor vs TCU | MyBookie Sportsbook Week 17 NCAAB

How to Bet Baylor at TCU NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 9 PM ET
Where: Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Radio: Tunein.com
Opening NCAAB Lines: TCU -2.5 (total 149)

Baylor vs TCU Last Meeting

On Jan. 27, Baylor lost to visiting TCU 105-102 in triple overtime in one of the best games of the season in the Big 12. Jameer Nelson Jr. scored a season-high 30 points for the Frogs, including the go-ahead shot with 10 seconds left in the third overtime. Emanuel Miller scored 21 points and Micah Peavy added 18 for TCU in the program’s first game to go this long since a 104-96 loss in three OTs at West Virginia on Feb. 26, 2019. Freshman Yves Missi scored a season-high 25 points, and RayJ Dennis had 24 points and 10 assists in the first three-OT game for the Bears since a 116-111 victory in five overtimes at Texas A&M on Jan. 23, 2008. The Bears had a 10-point lead in the second half and a four-point edge in the third OT. Baylor leads the all-time series, 104-87.

Why Bet on Baylor Bears?

Baylor (19-8, 8-6 Big 12) will fall from No. 11 in the new poll on Monday as it enters on a two-game skid following an 82-76 OT home loss to No. 2 Houston on Saturday. The Cougars trailed in regulation and appeared to win the game on a long 3-pointer by senior point Jamal Shead at the buzzer. But replay showed the ball was still in his hands when the clock ran out.

Senior guard L.J. Cryer scored 15 points for UH against his former team, including six free throws in overtime. After playing 70 games the past three seasons for Baylor before transferring to Houston, he got booed loudly every time he touched the ball early.

The Bears didn’t tie the game for the first time until Yves Missi, their 7-foot freshman, made a layup while being fouled with 4.4 seconds left in regulation to make it 69-all. J’Wan Roberts rebounded Missi’s missed free throw, and Shead was just a tick late in ending the game without overtime.

Baylor coach Scott Drew said the Bears “were all embarrassed by how we played, how we competed” in the first half. The visiting Cougars turned Baylor’s 11 first-half turnovers into 13 points, put up 12 more shots and hit a sizzling 58% to take a 41-25 lead into the break.

Baylor took its first and only lead of the game 22 seconds into the overtime period when RayJ Dennis backed down Cryer and knocked down a jumper to put the Bears on top, 71-69. But that was their last made field goal until the last five seconds of the OT period.

“We just felt like they brought it to us in the first half,” said Baylor forward Jalen Bridges, who notched his first double-double of the year with 17 points and a career-high 13 rebounds. “They’re the most physical team that we’ve played so far, and I feel like we were a little taken aback. We just came out in the second half trying to punch them back.”

Baylor enters fourth in the nation in 3-point FG% (39.6), fifth in offensive efficiency (123.6), while ranking second in the Big 12 in points per game (82.3). The Bears are aiming for a sixth-straight 20-win season and the 15th in the last 17 seasons, after having just three 20-win seasons in the 97 seasons prior to Drew’s arrival.

Ja’Kobe Walter averages a team-leading 14.7 points per game, most among Big 12 freshmen, followed by Dennis’ 13.3 points per game, and is averaging a Big 12-best 37.7 minutes per game in conference play. Dennis leads the conference and ranks eighth in the nation in assists per game (6.6). The senior transfer has now moved into the top-10 for most assists in a single season in program history.

Langston Love is averaging 11.1 points per game in Big 12 play, most in the league among players with no starts. Jayden Nunn has picked up steam lately averaging 15.0 points per game in his last seven games.

The Bears are one of just two teams in the country with six players averaging double-digit points (Tulane). Baylor is averaging 15.1 turnovers per game in losses and 10.6 per game in wins this season. The Bears have won three straight and six of the last nine between these two in Fort Worth.

Bet Baylor to Win
Vegas College Basketball Odds

Why Bet on TCU Horned Frogs?

TCU (19-8, 8-6) beat visiting Cincinnati 75-57 on Saturday. TCU made four of its first six deep attempts in the second half, and six of 10 overall to take its largest lead at 57-44 into the 11:31 media timeout. Even a 1-for-9 stretch by the Horned Frogs was too much to overcome for UC, as they scored on back-to-back baskets to turn it into a 69-53 game with 5:04 left.

“TCU punished us in transition for communication and focus errors, for turnovers and forced shots and poor shots and poor decisions with the ball. They were much quicker to the boards than us … they were the better team than us tonight by a stretch,” Cincinnati coach Wes Miller said.

The Horned Frogs were led by JaKobe Coles and Emanuel Miller, who each scored 18 points. Miller tied a career-high with six assists and brought down six rebounds to go with three steals. The Frogs scored 16 points off 17 forced turnovers and took advantage with 25 fastbreak points. TCU’s defense held Cincinnati to their lowest scoring performance of the season. The Frogs had their best performance of the season from the free throw line shooting 14-of-15 for 93.3 percent.

TCU outrebounded the Big 12 leader in rebounding, 33-32. The Horned Frogs improved to 13-5 this season and 128-41 under coach Jamie Dixon when outrebounding their opponent. The Frogs improved to 12-2 in home games this season. TCU is now 102-36 at home under Dixon, including 39-31 in Big 12 games.

Miller leads the team and ranks tied for fifth in the Big 12 with 16.5 points per game. Miller has scored in double figures in each of the last 15 games and reached 20 points seven times this season. He is the team leader in rebounds with 5.9 per game, which ranks 12th in the Big 12.

Trevian Tennyson ranks second in the Big 12 in 3-point percentage at 43.7. Tennyson has made 2.6 threes in Big 12 games this season, which ranks second in the league. Jameer Nelson Jr. ranks fourth in the Big 12 and 36th nationally with 2.1 steals per game. Nelson is one of three players in the Big 12 that is averaging at least 10 points, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game. Ernest Udeh Jr. has missed the last two games with a left leg injury suffered at Kansas State.

TCU leads the nation with 19.5 fastbreak points per game. It leads the Big 12 and ranks 25th nationally in shortest offensive possession length at 15.8 seconds. The Frogs rank third in the Big 12 and 17th nationally with 9.2 steals per game. They have forced 13 or more turnovers in all but five games this season.

TCU is 3-7 in Q1 games and has two more opportunities for Q1 wins, starting Monday. CU is 4-5 against AP Top 25 teams this season and 4-2 against the top 15. Of TCU’s 37 wins over AP Top 25 teams in its history, 23 have come under Dixon. TCU is 6-6 against Baylor since the 2017-18 season. Its last sweep over the Bears came in 2018.

Bet TCU to Win
College Basketball Betting Lines

Baylor vs TCU Expert Prediction

TCU 76, Baylor 75

NCAA Basketball Odds to Win Championship – Top 10

College Basketball Betting Center

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