Betting on Over/Under in NCAA Basketball: MyBookie's Guide

We are still very early in the college basketball season, which means there are plenty of betting opportunities coming our way between now and the start of March Madness.

There are some people who spend hours looking over matchups and trends to find spots where they might be able to exploit the bookies and make some money.

Betting on Over/Under in NCAA Basketball Analysis

Then again, there are plenty more who just want to get in on the action with as basic a bet as possible.

The good news is that there are some very simple bets that you can play on any given night, with the OVER/UNDER being one that a lot of betters are drawn to.

Every day, the bookies post point totals for every game on the schedule, and it is your job to pick which way the game will go: OVER or UNDER.

It doesn’t get any easier than that but winning that particular bet regularly does require a little work on your part, so let’s take a quick peek at some of the things you can do to make informed OVER/UNDER picks in NCAA Basketball.

Take a Look at What Both Teams Are Doing

What we mean here is that you should be looking at the recent trends. What type of ball have both teams been playing of late? Are they going out and shooting the lights out, or are they playing a more defensive style of ball that might result in a lower scoring game?

There are plenty of places online where you can get this information, including looking back on recent games to see if teams are trending more on the OVER or the UNDER.

Teams don’t generally change the way they play from night to night, so an explosive offensive team is not going to suddenly tuck tail and start playing it safe.

It’s also worth noting that while teams can look different from year to year due to players leaving for the NBA, matchups between specific teams can sometimes historically go one way or another in regard to the point total.

Look at those previous meetings to see if you can get some clue as to how things might go this season.

Keep an Eye on Injuries

Most teams have a definite starting 5, so when one of those players goes down, it can cause a ripple effect that has an impact on how the team plays as a whole. For example, let’s say you are looking at a team that is playing great ball on the offensive side of the court, your initial thought might well be to go all in on the OVER. If you place that bet without looking at their injury list, you may well be throwing away your money.

Imagine placing that bet without realizing that the top scorer on the team or the guy who is a legit 3-point shooter is out for the night. Don’t make any bet without covering all the bases and making sure that you are making the smartest wager possible. If you have any doubts about the impact of an injury, skip that game and choose one you feel good about.

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NCAA Basketball Lines provided by MyBookie

Are the Odds Moving in One Direction or Another

There is a reason why a lot of regular betters leave it late until they place their wagers. Oftentimes, they will wait and see if a line will move, knowing full well that a mere ½ point shift could mean the difference between pulling the trigger on a bet or skipping it in favor of another. If you see the odds shifting in the direction of one pick versus the other, there is a chance that a lot of the betting money is going in that direction.

The bookies will adjust the odds accordingly, and not always in your favor. You might think that you are following the smart money by changing your wager to suit the shift in the odds, only to be left disappointed when your original pick ends up winning, and you are left with a losing ticket. Either stick to your guns and play your original wager, assuming it still has value, or look for another game to play.

Speed of Play is Important

Teams that score a lot of points on a regular basis tend to play the game at a higher pace than most, while those that depend on a more defensive style of play might slow things down to keep their opponent at bay. When these types of teams meet, they are both going to try and dictate the pace of play to negatively impact their opponent, but it doesn’t always work.

One thing to consider here is the location of the game, as it is often the home team that comes out and tries to settle into their style of play. This is not to suggest that the road team can’t do their thing as usual, but it sometimes takes a little bit of time for them to turn the tide and start taking control, which in turn could have an impact on the overall score.

Digging Into the Data

As mentioned earlier, there are countless websites that use statistical analysis to try and figure out how things might play out in any given game. While you should certainly not rely on this data as your only source of information, it can help you decide which way to go if you are on the fence about the outcome of a specific game.

These data points will sometimes deliver a stat that you hadn’t considered during your own analysis, and they may well be the difference between you betting one way or another. If you are going to make a habit of using these types of sites, I would suggest that you follow their picks for a little while to see where they hit and where they tend to miss. This can save you a ton of betting money over the long haul as opposed to blindly making bets based on that data alone.

Top 10 teams in the NCAA Basketball Championship Odds to Win

Duke Blue Devils +910
Auburn Tigers +990
Gonzaga Bulldogs +1125
Alabama Crimson Tide +1425
Houston Cougars +1425
Kansas Jayhawks +1475
Tennessee Volunteers +1700
UConn Huskies +1725
Iowa State Cyclones +1825
Kentucky Wildcats +2000

9 unbeaten teams left standing 😯

Who will be the last one? 👀

(via @jloose128) pic.twitter.com/kQQX7YlkdL
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) December 5, 2024