NCAA Basketball Betting Strategies & Expert Analysis in Week 4

We are still in the very early days of the college basketball season, making it tough to get a handle on how teams are playing.

This is especially true at this stage of the proceedings, as you have a lot of the bigger teams going against smaller schools in what is little more than a scrimmage game.

NCAA Basketball Betting Strategies

It’s tough to get a real handle on a potential national champion until they start to go against better teams.

That said, if they are blowing everyone out and covering some big spreads in the process, it might well be a sign that a team is ready to roll and have a great season.

However you look at it, it’s never a bad idea to have a strategy in mind when it comes time to wager, so let’s take a look at some NCAA basketball betting strategies, with some examples for upcoming games included.

Take Advantage of Early Season Odds

The bookies are very good at setting odds, which is why it is so difficult to win on a consistent basis. That said, as good as they are, they often don’t have much to go on when looking at early season matchups, which could mean that there are some odds posted that you can jump all over. It’s tough for everyone when you consider that the turnover from season to season is high, with many of the top teams adding 2 or 3 new players to their starting 5 when compared to the previous season.

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— Houston Men's Hoops 🏀 🐾 (@UHCougarMBK) November 28, 2024

For example, a couple of teams that have a lot of returning players are the Houston Cougars and the Arkansas Razorbacks. There is, of course, no guarantee that they will be better than last season, but those two teams are currently ranked in the top 25. Teams like that may have an edge over those that are playing with a lot of new starters, particularly in the early going.

Pay Attention to Trends

The good news for all of us is that there are a ton of online resources that can help us break down any game we have an interest in betting. MyBookie break down all the different angles, which you can incorporate into your own strategies. Getting an inside look at how teams perform against the spread, against non-conference teams, or teams with losing or winning records, can help you pull the trigger on a matchup that you might ordinarily have ignored.

For example, let’s take a look at the Wednesday night game that will see Tennessee–Martin go on the road to face the Tennessee Volunteers as a 39-point underdog. This is a lock for the Vols, but the odds don’t make it a worthwhile straight-up pick. If we look at the spread, the Volunteers have covered in 9 in a row in Wednesday games at home. On the flip side, Tennessee-Martin has covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 overall. With a spread of that size, I might be tempted to go with the underdog, simply because the Vols might use some bench players late and take their foot off the gas.

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NCAA Basketball Betting Strategies provided by MyBookie

Consider Live Betting

The early part of the season can be tricky for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that we don’t have a ton of recent data to draw upon. Betting with your gut can be fun at times, but it is not the best long-term strategy if you want to build your bankroll. If you are planning on watching the games you want to wager on, then maybe you should think about live in-game betting. You can very quickly get a handle on how teams are playing by watching along.

If you have a team that is struggling to score, you might consider changing your initial idea that it might be a high-scoring game, switching to the UNDER when it comes time to bet. Sure, you might get lesser odds than you would if you had placed your wager before the opening tip, but it’s better to win a smaller amount than lose it all.

Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart

This applies to every sport, and it is something you should consider before you place a wager. Are you wagering on a specific team because you really believe that they will win and cover the spread, or are you doing it because they are your favorite team. If all the trends are pointing away from the team that you follow, and you ignore all the data to bet with your heart instead of your head, you may as well just hand over your entire bankroll to the bookies.

The cure for this way of thinking is rather simple. You either have to get in the habit of listening to your head and betting against your team when the odds and trends lead you that way, or you need to commit to not wagering on games in which your favorite team is involved.

Watch Out for Rebound Games

For this section, we are going to be looking specifically at the Alabama Crimson Tide, who many consider to be a championship team this season. They started the season with 3 straight wins before going against ranked Purdue, a game that they ended up losing. I’m sure that a lot of people looked at that loss as a sign that the Crimson Tide might not be able to hang with the big boys.

Their next 2 games came against ranked teams, and I am almost sure that a lot of people went against the Tide. Only to lose their money. Alabama hammered Illinois right after that loss, and then went on to take out #6 Houston. The point I am making here is that good teams will shake off a loss and find a way to bounce back quickly. I always look for top teams taking a bad loss to see how they respond, as it can pen the door to games down the line when they might need a rebound win.

POLL ALERT: Kansas stays at No. 1 ahead of showdown vs. No. 11 Duke, Tennessee into the top 10, Ole Miss, Mississippi St back in AP Top 25.

Full poll: https://t.co/ZJG5mgWrsa pic.twitter.com/VgACZM8G30
— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) November 25, 2024