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March Madness Betting Predictions for the West Region Bracket

MyBookie College Basketball Betting & Expert Analysis | 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness.

In this writer’s opinion, the West Region is the easiest of the four in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The top four seeds are North Carolina, Arizona, Baylor and Alabama and none of them won their conference tournament. Decent break for Pac-12 regular-season champion Arizona in still landing out West; getting a No. 2 seed instead of a No. 1 doesn’t matter that much.

First Round Games

Mar 21, 12:15 pm, CBS – Mississippi State vs Michigan State

Mar 21, 2:00 pm, TBS – Arizona vs Long Beach

Mar 21, 2:45 pm, CBS – North Carolina vs Wagner

Mar 21, 4:30 pm, TBS – Dayton vs Nevada

Mar 22, 12:40 pm, truTV – Baylor vs Colgate

Mar 22, 3:10 pm, truTV – Clemson vs New Mexico

Mar 22, 7:35 pm, truTV – Alabama vs Charleston

Mar 22, 10:05 pm, truTV – Saint Mary’s vs Grand Canyon

The West is the only region where the No. 1 seed is not a favorite to win it as the Tar Heels are +260 and Arizona +200. North Carolina has the most No. 1 seeds in the modern tournament history, and UNC as a No. 1 seed has been one of the safest bets on the board. The Tar Heels won the title as a No. 1 seed in 1993, 2005, 2009 and 2017, and they’re 52-9 in the modern tournament as a No. 1 seed, averaging 4.0 wins per year. That’s basically the Final Four every year as a No. 1 seed.

When a top seed, the Heels have only one loss ever to a team worse than a No. 5 seed (No. 9-seed Boston College in 1994) and only three other losses to a team seeded lower than two, all of which went on to make the Final Four. Carolina is making its 53rd NCAA Tournament appearance, second in history behind Kentucky‘s 61. The Tar Heels are 131-49 all-time in the NCAA Tournament.

I see UNC with an easy road to the Sweet 16 with the first two games in Charlotte for the Heels. They are led by first-team All-America and ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis. He is the 15th Tar Heel to earn AP first-team All-America honors and the first since Justin Jackson in 2016-17. Davis leads the ACC in scoring at 21.4 ppg.

North Carolina likely will face No. 4 Alabama (+750 to win West) in the Sweet 16. The Tide are led by second-team All-America guard Mark Sears. He ranks No. 1 in the SEC in scoring (21.1 ppg), No. 6 in field goal percentage (50.4) and No. 6 in assists (4.1 apg). Sears has scored 20-or-more points in 22 games this season, the most by an Alabama player since Reggie King’s school record 23 games in 1978-79. Sears is one of two players in Division I and the only Power 5 player this year that has 675 points, 130 assists, 125 rebounds and 75 three-pointers.

It marks the 24th NCAA Tournament appearance in program history, with Alabama owning a record of 23-23 (.500). The Crimson Tide’s 2004 team is the only squad in program history to reach the Elite 8 while UA has appeared in the Sweet 16 nine times including in 2023 and 2021.

No Pac-12 team has won the national championship since Arizona did it in 1997. The conference hasn’t even made the title game since 2006. The West Coast has seen five national runners-up this century, including just Arizona (2001) and UCLA (2006) from the Pac-12. The Wildcats are the only realistic Pac-12 team with a shot this year.

Overall, Arizona has now been selected to 38 NCAA Tournaments and has made it as a No. 1 or 2 seed in each of the three years under head coach Tommy Lloyd. This will be the Wildcats seventh appearance in Salt Lake City for the first and second round of the NCAA Tournament, and the first time since 2017. Arizona has a 9-2 record in the 11 previous games played in Salt Lake City.

UA is led by former North Carolina guard Caleb Love, the Pac-12 Player of the Year, so he would be a huge storyline if the teams meet in the Elite Eight. Love had one of his best seasons in 2022-23 when he averaged 16.7 points and 3.7 rebounds per game while shooting 37.8% from the field before leaving the Tar Heels for Tucson. This year, he’s averaging 18.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game.

I expect No. 2 Arizona to face No. 3 Baylor (+650 to win South) in the Sweet 16. The Bears have earned a top-three seed for a fourth-straight NCAA Tournaments. The Bears are the only team in the country to earn a top-three seed in four-straight NCAA Tournaments. Baylor is 22-16 in 15 previous NCAA Championships trips, including a 19-10 record in the Scott Drew era.

If Baylor advances past the first round, it will face either sixth-seeded Clemson (21-11) or 11th-seeded New Mexico (26-9) in Sunday’s second round, with the winner advancing to the regional rounds in Los Angeles for games on March 28 and 30.

Our sleeper pick has to be Michigan State at +1600 even though the No. 9 seed could easily lose Round 1 to No. 8 Mississippi State. March is when Tom Izzo’s Spartans shine. MSU has made eight Final Fours in 24 appearances under Izzo, including three times as a No. 5 seed or worse. Izzo is especially tough in NCAA Tournament games with just one day of prep, with a 24-7 record in such games.

Bet On the West Region Bracket Teams to Win
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