The lone Top 25 matchup around college basketball on Friday is a terrific in-state rivalry game between non-conference opponents as No. 19 Cincinnati of the Big 12 faces No. 22 Dayton of the Atlantic 10 technically in a neutral-site game in Cincinnati. These will both be NCAA Tournament teams. The Bearcats are short favorites on the NCAAB odds.
Cincy is favorite on the NCAAB odds in Week 7.
| Opening Spread/Totals Subject to Change: Cincinnati -3 (total 139) Expert Prediction: Cincinnati 72, Dayton 70 |
How to Bet No. 22 Dayton at No. 19 Cincinnati NCAA Basketball Prediction
Opening NCAAB Vegas Lines: Cincinnati -28 (total 149)
When: Friday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Heritage Bank Center, Cincinnati
TV: ESPNU
Stream: ESPN+
Last Meeting
Last season, Dayton beat Cincinnati 82-68 also at a neutral site in Cincy. DaRon Holmes II had 28 points, and Kobe Elvis scored 27 for the Flyers. However, both are gone now with Holmes in the NBA and Elvis at Oklahoma. Nate Santos had a three-point play after making two free throws to give Dayton its first double-digit lead at 53-39 with 13:48 left to play in the second half. The Flyers maintained at least a three-possession lead from there.
The Bearcats shot 37% from the floor. It was the 92nd meeting between the schools but the first since 2010. It was the Flyers’ fourth victory in the last 19 matchups. Cincinnati leads all-time 60-32. This is only the fifth matchup between the squads in which both were ranked (1955, 1958, 2000, 2003).
^Why Bet on Cincinnati?
Cincinnati (8-1) has won back-to-back games since its lone loss at Villanova. The Bearcats come off another rivalry game as they beat Xavier 68-65 on Saturday to snap a five-game losing streak against the Musketeers. UC trailed by seven with 7:46 to go.
Ryan Conwell completed a four-point play to cut Xavier’s deficit to 66-65 with 13.8 seconds left. The Bearcats’ Jizzle James hit two free throws to make it 68-65 with 13 seconds. Xavier’s Zach Freemantle missed a potential tying 3-pointer at the buzzer. The Bearcats have relied heavily on 3-point shooting this season, but they beat Xavier despite shooting 5 for 20 from long range.
Senior wing Simas Lukosius led Cincinnati with 14 points, including 11 in the second half. Junior forward Dillon Mitchell finished with 11 points and 10 rebounds for his second double-double of the season, while senior center Aziz Bandaogo scored 12 points on a perfect 4-of-4 shooting and junior wing Dan Skilling Jr. added 10 in his second game back from injury. Both teams shot an identical 37.9 percent (22-of-58) from the field in a matchup that featured 10 lead changes and seven ties.
“You shoot 37% from the field and 25% from three. We’re a really good offensive team, guys. We got really good offensive players. But you go 37 and 25, we’re missing layups. It just felt like there was a crazy lid on it. You find a way to win the game. That’s Cincinnati basketball,” UC coach Wes Miller said.
Cincinnati is 11-1 in the last year-plus when Bandaogo scores in double-figures. Skillings returned to the starting lineup. He came off the bench in the previous game against Howard, his first action after missing the six before that due to injury. This marks UC’s first game as a ranked team against a ranked opponent since it beat No. 11 Houston in the 2019 AAC Championship game.
ITS GAMEDAY!
— Flying w/ Doug (@DytFlyers) December 20, 2024
The Flyers invade Cincinnati for the 2nd year in a row.
UC #19 vs UD #22
8:30 / ESPNU
"KEYS" to the game
– Simas Lukosius / 16 ppg / Great shooter, can score on 3 levels.
– Rebounding – Team effort against UC, they average 36 pg / cannot give up extra…
Lukosius leads UC with 16.0 ppg, scoring in double-figures in all nine games. He is 18th nationally with a 48.3 percentage from deep. Mitchell is seventh nationally in field goal percentage at 69.6, has a steal in every game and is 6-for-9 from the foul line since a rough start, as well as adding a three-point repertoire as part of his development.
Cincinnati is seventh defensively in KenPom, while Dayton is 14th offensively. Villanova is the only team to shoot better than 33.3 percent from deep on UC, while Dayton’s deep shooting is 83rd at 36.4 percent. The Bearcats have won 15 of the last 19 meetings since 1989, leading 60-32 overall.
^Why Bet on Dayton?
Dayton (10-2) won its fifth game in a row Tuesday, 66-65 over UNLV as the Flyers extended their homecourt winning streak to 25 games — the fifth-longest in Division I. Nate Santos made a 3-pointer from the corner with 1:15 left to pull Dayton to 62-61 and UNLV did not hit the rim at the other end late in the shot clock, leading to a transition layup by Malachi Smith with 37 seconds to go.
UNLV’s Julian Rishwain made his fourth 3-pointer with 23 seconds left for a 65-63 lead, but Smith converted a three-point play to give Dayton a one-point lead with eight seconds left. Dedan Thomas’ baseline jumper at the buzzer was short for the Rebs.
“Our guys stayed the course,” Coach Anthony Grant said, “and believed in each other and believed in what we were doing and found a way to get the win. If you’re going to have a season like we think we’re capable of having, you’re going to have to win games like that. I’ve been around for a long time. You look at these type of wins as some of the guttier wins. Everybody wants to talk about when you play the ranked teams, but these are the ones that kind of make you who you are and who you get a chance to become.”
Santos finished with 14 points to lead Dayton. He picked up his fourth foul with seven minutes to play but played the last four and a half minutes without fouling. Zed Key scored 11 of his 13 points in the second half and freshman Amael L’Etang finished with 10. Enoch Cheeks led the team in rebounds and assists with six and five respectively. Dayton won despite making 5 of 23 3-pointers (23.8%). It’s the fourth time this season it has shot under 30%.
“We needed this win badly,” Smith said, “just for seeding and making the tournament, stuff like that. We know we needed this win. We’re trying to go 3-0 in the last three games of non-conference. It was a gutsy win, a rough win, but it doesn’t matter. We got the W.”
Dayton’s 25-game home winning streak is the third-longest streak in school history. The Flyers won 30 home games in a row from March 2008 to January 2010 and 27 in a row from February 2014 to December 2016. Dayton also has won 26 straight non-conference home games since losing three in a row to UMass Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay early in the 2021-22 season. This is the third straight season Dayton has not lost a non-conference home game.
The Dayton roster includes five players who have earned all-conference recognition in their past –Santos (Atlantic 10), Cheeks (Horizon League), Javon Bennett (Northeast Conference), Smith (Atlantic 10) and fifth-year senior Posh Alexander (Big East).
Cheeks is fifth in the A-10 in rebounding (7.5). Smith is second in the A-10 in assists (5.9) and fourth in 3-pt. FG% (.480, 12-25). Alexander is first in assist-to-turnover ratio (4.2). Key is fifth in FG% (.657 46-70). He is also tied for the most dunks in D-I (28).
As a team, Dayton leads the Atlantic 10 in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.96, which is sixth nationally) and FG% (.495, 328-662) and is second in 3-pt. FG% (.364, 99-272).
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