If you’re looking to make bold moves this year, long shot picks for the NCAA Tournament can offer exciting rewards, especially during March Madness, where upsets and surprises are part of the thrill of the tournament.
How to Get Your Long Shot Picks for the NCAA Tournament
The ONLY Long Shot Betting Guide You’ll EVER Need for the NCAA Tournament
2025 College Basketball Season | 86th season of the National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I men’s college basketball
March Madness: Tuesday, March 18th – Monday, April 7th, 2025
Betting to Win College Basketball National Championship with Top Long Shot Picks
Ohio State beat Notre Dame on Monday night to win the 2025 College Football Championship, which means we can now fully turn our attention to the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament.
This year’s tournament promises to be one of the record books as the Duke Blue Devils are back to the to of the college hoops food chain and the SEC has dominated on the hardcourt.
But Duke, Auburn, Tennessee and Houston will be favorites heading into the Tournament.
What about the long shots that always upset brackets and, at times, upset favored opponents to stamp their ticket to the Final Four?
Check out what makes the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament the greatest yearly sporting event on the planet why you should look for long shots and the bets that will turn you a profit during NCAA Tournament time.
Writer’s Rundown on How to Bet on the Next March Madness
How to Find Long Shot Picks for the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament
NCAA Tournament Primer: Greatest Three Weeks in Sports
The annual NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament is the greatest three weeks of the year for sports fans.
The tournament comprises of 68 teams.
Round 1 includes 64 teams and happens on Thursday and Friday after the elimination of 4 teams on Tuesday and Wednesday.
By the end of Sunday, the tournament pares down to 32 teams.
The Sweet 16 happens the following Thursday and Friday followed by the Elite Eight on Saturday and Sunday.
Week 3 is the Final Four on Saturday and the Men’s College Basketball Championship on Monday.
The Big Dance as hoop fans call it comprises of conference tournament winners and at-large bids.
A Selection Committee decides which teams make it to the NCAA Tournament and which must sit on their couches during the most electrifying three weeks in sports.
Check out why the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament is so exciting.
- Teams represent every corner of the United States:
The NCAA Tournament pits teams against each other from all over the U.S. there often isn’t a single state that doesn’t have at least one university representative team. - The basketball is excellent:
Because teams that play each other, especially in the first round, don’t know each other well, this makes for excellent basketball and the prospect of long shot wins. - In the first round alone there are 32 games on which to bet:
Round 1 consists of 32 games, which means there are 32 spread lines. Ah but there are also often 32 moneylines depending on the spreads and 32 over/under total lines.
You can also bet props on some games and futures.
So in total we’re talking over 100 betting options in Round 1 and over 50 betting options, sometimes more depending on the props, in Round 2. - Betting options make for consistent excitement:
We have to mention live betting.
The fact that all NCAA Tournament games will also offer live betting means for three weeks, college hoops betting fans will be in heaven.
The NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament is the second massive betting event of the year
The Super Bowl generates the most betting dollars every year.
This is due to not only the spread line, moneyline, and over/under total betting but also the myriad of props that the game offers football betting handicappers.
The NCAA Tournament is a close second.
The big difference between the two is that the NCAA Tournament is a uniquely American tournament.
It doesn’t have the marketing reach that the Super Bowl has because participants in the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament are colleges and universities in the United States.
From that perspective, The NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament might be the most bet upon sporting event of the year by U.S. based sports bettors.
It’s difficult to tell since we don’t have all the facts.
Why Pick Long Shots in the NCAA Tournament?
There are multiple reasons to make long shot bets in the NCAA Tournament:
- Unfamiliarity raises the bar for favorites to cover:
Favorites don’t always cover and sometimes even lose because they don’t know their long shot opponents well. - Long shots fly under the radar even more than underdogs and therefore offer nice ATS and Moneylines:
An underdog is a team that is a dog by around +6 points or so.
A long shot is a dog that offers a +8, some say +10, points or more on the spread line.
That means a long shot offers a massive moneyline to upset a favorite. - Betting long shots can make up for close losses on favorites:
A single moneyline play on a long shot can make up for spread losses when backing favorites or underdogs.
If you have a long shot SU play in your parlay, it boosts the parlay payout big time.
Factors to Consider When Picking NCAA Tournament Long Shots
Team Performance on the NCAA Tournament
Long shot teams make the NCAA Tournament by winning their conference tournament or losing 4 games or less and attract an at large bid.
Most often, the team wins their conference tourney.
How a team wins is as important as winning.
A win is a win but, remember, to have success in the NCAA Tournament you must win a specific way.
What’s that way? Defense.
A long shot team won’t upset a favored squad, especially a 3-seed or higher, unless it plays excellent defense.
In college basketball, top scorers naturally play for teams like Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, Auburn, Cardinals and other blue chip programs.
So teams that play terrific defense and frustrate high powered college hoop offenses do well in the NCAA Tournament.
Key Player Impact
No long shot team can excel unless a key player steps up and takes charge.
The key player often provides most of the scoring for the team while the other players support the key player.
There is usually a single key player, like Johnell Davis for 9-seed Florida Atlantic in 2023 supported by two or three other key players.
The other two key players for FAU were Alijah Martin and Vladislav Golden.
NCAA Tournament Matchup Analysis
Matchups are key in college hoops.
The long shot team must have an individual match up edge.
Going back to Florida Atlantic, few opponents could match up with Davis in the backcourt or Golden in the frontcourt.
Betting Strategies for Long Shot Picks
NCAA Tournament Value Betting
As with all sports betting, we should look for value.
What constitutes value when betting in the NCAA Tournament? Consider the bet first.
For example, if you want to bet on the spread line, does the long shot offer fair value at +10?
Consider key players, team matchup, team performance, and other factors like region in which the game plays and coaching matchups.
We’ll discuss how to incorporate value betting when it comes to futures, spread line, moneyline, and over/under totals.
NCAA Tournament Futures Betting
Betting futures in the NCAA Tournament means picking region winners, teams to make the Final Four, as well as teams to win the National Championship.
Value is an important aspect when betting futures.
Here’s an example of finding value.
Duke is +500.
The Blue Devils look strong but they don’t have a great bench.
Do they offer value at +500? Probably not at this point in the season.
Which teams offer value right now? Houston at +1200 and Alabama at +1500 look good.
Arizona is a long shot at +5000 but have lost a single Big 12 game.
So the real value is with the AZ Wildcats.
NCAA Tournament Moneyline Betting
Long shots offer terrific moneyline payout in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
The reason is because lines makers struggle to create fair value lines on long shots and underdogs.
Often, odds makers end up overvaluing favorites on the ML, which means if we make solid ML bets, we can score big profits for a small investment.
NCAA Tournament Spread Betting
Value in spread betting is all about the odds.
When looking for value in spread lines, it’s important to consider the NCAA Tournament itself.
A team must win 6 games over the span of three weeks to win the National Championship.
So a 1-seed, as an example, might be up by 30 points in the second half and look to be cruising to scoring a -24 cover win.
But the head coach knows he must save his players for 5 more potential games.
So the HC pulls all of his starters and the favored team wins by 16 to 20.
Always look for value on the underdog and long shot side because the nature of the NCAA Tournament favors underdogs and long shots to cover spreads.
NCAA Tournament Prop Bets
Most prop bets will occur in high profile matchups.
Let’s say Michigan State and Duke face off in the second round for some reason.
Duke is a 1-seed and Sparty goes on a losing streak to end the regular season and falls to an 8-seed.
Prop bets might be available on a game like that.
A prop could be Cooper Flagg’s points, rebounds, and assists.
Be careful when betting props.
Coaches lean on star players but the best coaches preach ball movement, assists, and defense.
Duke head coach Jon Scheyer would like nothing more than for the Blue Devils to win every NCAA Tournament by 10 with Cooper dishing 10 assists, scoring 6, and grabbing 12 rebounds.
NCAA Tournament Over/Under Betting
Over/under betting is the total number of points scored in a game.
Betting totals over or under the number in the NCAA Tournament is tough.
The reason is because teams don’t know each other.
So stats like field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage, and other stats aren’t always accurate.
If in doubt, go under the total because defense is the way to win games in the NCAA Tournament.
Team after team proves that every season.
The teams that play the best defense go the furthest in the tourney.
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^ Top^ TopHow many SEC teams will make the NCAA Tournament? pic.twitter.com/GIQrx8FTyn
— Joey Loose (@jloose128) January 21, 2025
The NCAA Basketball season is upon us, and with it comes the excitement of March Madness! As teams battle it out on the court, the odds to win the National Championship are constantly shifting.
Updated Top 2025 College Basketball National Championship Odds to Win
| Teams | Odds |
|---|---|
| Auburn Tigers | +600 |
| Duke Blue Devils | +610 |
| Houston Cougars | +1100 |
| Iowa State Cyclones | +1200 |
| Tennessee Volunteers | +1375 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | +1600 |
| Florida Gators | +1600 |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs | +1800 |
| Kentucky Wildcats | +2000 |
| UConn Huskies | +2300 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | +2500 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | +3000 |
| Michigan Wolverines | +3400 |
| Marquette Golden Eagles | +3700 |
| St. John's Red Storm | +5000 |
| Michigan State Spartans | +5600 |
| UCLA Bruins | +5800 |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | +6000 |
| Baylor Bears | +6000 |
| Texas A&M Aggies | +6000 |
Test Your Long Shot Picks for the NCAA Tournament After Learning to How to Bet on March Madness
When betting March Madness matches, consider the underdogs and use strategic analysis to refine your March Madness bracket picks. (Check this out, worth it: Perfect March Madness Bracket Picks.)
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How does it work?
What are Long Shot Picks in March Madness? Let’s Find Out
Long shot picks in March Madness refer to betting on teams or outcomes that have a low probability of winning but offer high potential rewards if they do.
These picks typically involve betting on lower-seeded teams (often in the range of 10th seed or lower) to upset higher-seeded teams and make a deep run in the tournament, including reaching the Final Four or even winning the national championship.
Why are Long Shot Picks Popular in March Madness?
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Upsets are Common:
March Madness is known for its unpredictable nature, with upsets happening in almost every tournament.
Lower-seeded teams often have standout performances, and many factors, such as momentum, coaching strategies, and player performances, can lead to a shocking run.
Long shot picks capitalize on this chaos. -
High Rewards for High Risk:
Betting on favorites or higher-seeded teams typically yields smaller payouts due to their higher probability of winning.
In contrast, long shot picks can offer much higher payouts, making them attractive to bettors looking for big rewards.
If a lower-seeded team pulls off an upset, the odds of winning can lead to substantial profits. -
Bracket Strategy:
For those filling out a March Madness bracket, long shot picks are crucial for creating a unique and potentially lucrative bracket.
If you correctly predict an unlikely team’s success, you can gain an edge over others in bracket challenges, which often feature large pools of participants.
How to Spot Potential Long Shots in March Madness
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Look for Strong Defensive Teams:
In a single-elimination format like March Madness, defense can be just as important as offense.
Teams that can slow down the game and stifle their opponents’ attacks may be able to upset higher-seeded teams, even if they aren’t the most talented on offense. -
Watch for Hot Players:
Sometimes, a lower-seeded team has a standout player who can carry them through the tournament.
A player on fire can completely change the dynamics of a game, making it possible for an underdog team to knock off a top seed.
Keep an eye on standout performers during the regular season or conference tournaments who might be primed for a big March Madness run. -
Consider Team Experience and Coaching:
Teams with experienced upperclassmen or strong coaches can make deeper runs, even if they aren’t favored.
A savvy coach who excels in tournament play can make the difference for a lower-seeded team, so don’t overlook teams with strong leadership. -
Check Recent Tournament History:
Some teams have a history of performing well in the tournament, despite not being highly ranked.
Teams with a culture of March Madness success or those who have had a solid run in recent tournaments could be worth betting on, even if they are considered a long shot. -
Factor in Matchups:
Certain lower-seeded teams may match up well against higher-seeded teams based on style of play, weaknesses, or injuries.
A team that excels at a particular strategy might exploit a higher-seeded team’s vulnerabilities, giving them a better chance of pulling off an upset.
Popular Long Shot Bets in March Madness
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Underdog Teams Making a Deep Run:
Historically, teams like George Mason (2006), Loyola-Chicago (2018), and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU, 2011) were considered long shots but made it to the Final Four, proving that upsets are possible. -
Cinderella Stories:
The term “Cinderella story” is often used to describe a long shot team that defies expectations to reach the latter stages of the tournament.
Betting on a Cinderella team can offer significant rewards, especially if they make it far into the tournament.
Final Thoughts
Long shot picks are part of what makes March Madness so exciting and unpredictable. While betting on these underdogs is riskier, the potential for huge payouts is what draws many bettors. By analyzing team strengths, individual players, and key matchups, you can find the next surprise team and make your bets accordingly. Whether you’re filling out a March Madness bracket or betting on individual games, taking a chance on a long shot could pay off big.
Ready to place your bets on the next March Madness upset? Make your long shot picks and get ahead of the game by checking out the latest odds!
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