We have one Top 25 matchup around college basketball on Wednesday as No. 25 Illinois of the Big Ten faces No. 8 Alabama of the SEC with the Crimson Tide as solid favorites on the college basketball odds.
It’s technically a neutral-site game from Birmingham and part of the C.M. Newton Classic.
Opening NCAAB Lines Subject to Change: Alabama -8.5 (total 167.5) Expert Prediction: Alabama 81, Illinois 78 |
Illinois Fighting Illini NCAAB Line +297
No. 25 Illinois (3-0) has played an easy schedule thus far and off a 66-54 home win over Oakland on Nov. 13. The Grizzlies shot just 38% from the field, including 4 of 25 from 3-point range. They also turned it over 18 times.
Highlights from Illinois' 66-54 win over Oakland.#Illini | #HTTO | #EveryDayGuys pic.twitter.com/XLvkPtZnK3
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) November 14, 2024
Tomislav Ivisic
Tomislav Ivisic led the Illini in scoring for the second-consecutive contest, tallying a career-high and game-most 20 points on 9-for-14 shooting. Ivisic also made a career-best four steals and corralled six rebounds. Ben Humrichous recorded multiple 3-pointers and scored in double figures for the third-straight game, finishing with 10 points, six rebounds, and one block.
The Stats
Illinois used a 17-4 run over a 7:25 span to take a 15-point lead and pull away in the second half. The Illini outrebounded the Golden Grizzlies, 37-27, which included a 12-8 advantage on the offensive glass. The Illini turned those 12 offensive boards into 13 second-chance points. They have won the rebounding battle in all three games this season, including two games with an advantage of 10+ rebounds. Illinois also has assisted on at least 47% of its field goals in each of the team’s three games.
It has started 3-0 for the third time in the Brad Underwood era and for the second time in the past three years. Underwood now has the Fighting Illini program ranked for a sixth consecutive season, a streak that dates back to the 2019-20 campaign.
The Rankings
KenPom.com ranks the Illini 25th in adjusted efficiency rating (+19.72), with the Orange and Blue coming in at No. 21 in defensive efficiency (95.0) and No. 33 in defense efficiency (114.7). As a team, Illinois ranks top 15 nationally in 3-pointers per game (5th, 12.7), 3-point attempts per game (6th, 35.0), rebounds per game (8th, 47.3), rebound margin (8th, +15.3), defensive rebounds per game (9th, 33.3), scoring margin (11th, +29.7), free-throws made per game (11th, 22.0) and free-throw attempts per game (12th, 30.3).
Following the 2024 Elite Eight appearance and Big Ten Tournament title, Illinois has a dramatically different roster this season. The program returns just one rotation player – last year’s ninth-leading scorer Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn – and returns just 2.9% of its minutes, 2.2% of its points, and 2.0% of its rebounds overall.
In the AP Poll
Since the start of the 2019-20 season, Illinois is 17-18 in 35 games in which both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25. The Orange and Blue are 5-5 in ranked-ranked matchups at neutral sites during that span. Since the 2019-20 season, Illinois ranks third nationally with 12 wins over top-10 teams. The Illini’s most recent top-10 win came in last year’s NCAA Sweet 16, when the Illini defeated No. 4 Iowa State to advance to the Elite Eight.
^Alabama Crimson Tide NCAAB Line -400
Alabama (3-1) dropped from No. 2 in the AP poll to No. 8 after an 82-78 loss at then No. 13 Purdue on Friday. After the Tide took their largest lead at 65-59, the Boilermakers went on a 13-0 run for a 72-65 advantage with 8:17 to play. They never trailed again.
Labaron Philon
The Crimson Tide were led by Philon who scored 18 points off the bench on 7-of-10 shooting from the floor and 3-of-4 from deep. Philon is the first Alabama player since Colin Sexton (2017) to have 17 or more assists and 48 or more points in their first four games as a freshman.
Grant Nelson
Nelson added his first double-double of the season with 12 points and 11 boards in the losing effort. All-American Mark Sears finished with 15 points, six assists and four rebounds, while Latrell Wrightsell Jr. added 11.
First double-double of the season for Grant Nelson.
— Alabama Men’s Basketball (@AlabamaMBB) November 16, 2024
11 Points
10 Rebounds pic.twitter.com/XSAyMQSvyB
Both teams hit nine treys, however, the Boilermakers went 9-of-16 (56 percent) compared to the Tide going 9-of-29 (31 percent). Alabama finished the contest with only eight turnovers, but Purdue committed only three miscues on the night.
Nate Oats
Tide coach Oats, who led the team to its first Final Four last season, isn’t worried about the loss and even welcomed the challenge that comes with losing an early season contest. Last season, Alabama played six non-conference games against power conference opponents and dropped all but one of those games. Three of those games came against top-10 foes, and each one taught the Crimson Tide a lesson.
“We schedule these games for a reason,” Oats said. “We try to figure out what we’ve got to work on. We’ve got plenty to work on after this game. We got beat up in the post a little bit more than I thought we were going to.”
Points Scored
Alabama has scored 100 points or more in a game in 90 games throughout its program’s history, with Oats’ teams accounting for 24 percent (22 games). Alabama has scored 100 points or more in a game on 22 separate occasions under Oats. Prior to Oats’ arrival, it took the Crimson Tide 31 years (1988-2019) to match that same feat. The Tide (17.0 assists per game) are one of the best passing teams in the country. With a scoring attack built around ball screens and drive-and-kicks, Alabama creates a lot of catch-and-shoot opportunities and dump-off layups and dunks.
Last season the Crimson Tide shot 37.7 percent on 3-pointers – one of the top marks in college basketball – but have faltered from deep so far this season (30.4 percent) in part due to the transfer departures of Rylan Griffen and Sam Walters.
In six seasons under Oats, Alabama is 3-4 against Big Ten opponents. The Tide are 18-26 under Oats in AP Top-25 matchups and 6-8 in neutral site games. Over the last five seasons, Alabama’s 104 wins ranks No. 9 nationally and Illinois ranks No. 14 with 99 victories.
^How to Bet Illinois vs Alabama Odds NCAA Basketball
When: Wednesday, 9 PM ET
Where: Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham, Alabama
TV: SEC Network
Stream: ESPN+
Radio: Tunein.com
Illinois vs. Alabama Series History
Alabama is 3-1 against Illinois and has won the past three, but they haven’t played since March 2015 — before the tenure of either current head coach. As noted, this is a neutral site matchup in Birmingham honoring former Alabama basketball head coach C.M. Newton in the C.M. Newton Classic.
^POLL ALERT: Kansas remains No. 1 in AP Top 25 but top 10 gets an overhaul as Alabama, Duke, Arizona drop; Wisconsin joins rankings.
— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) November 18, 2024
Full poll: https://t.co/ZJG5mgWrsa pic.twitter.com/BwMSccqYHP
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2022 #12 Illinois vs #19 Michigan State
Both No. 12 Illinois and No. 19 Michigan State were upset earlier this week, but Illinois still has a shot at the Big Ten title. The Illini likely will be short favorites on the NCAAB odds Saturday at the Spartans.
How to Bet Illinois at Michigan State NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info
- When: Saturday, noon ET
- Where: Breslin Center
- TV: ESPN
- Stream: ESPN app
- Radio: Tunein.com
- Opening NCAAB Lines: TBA (Illinois likely favored)
Last Meeting
On Jan. 25 in Champaign, Illinois edged MSU 56-55 even though the Illini were without superstar big man Kofi Cockburn (concussion) and starting guard Andre Curbelo (COVID-19 health and safety protocols). Both are back now. The Illini led by as many as 15 points early in the second half before Michigan State mounted a furious comeback in the final four minutes. Down by two, the Spartans had a chance to tie the game with less than a second left after Coleman Hawkins fouled Malik Hall as Hall drove to the basket. He missed the first free throw and made the second, then time expired.
Why Bet on Illinois?
Illinois (18-7) was shockingly dominated in a 70-59 loss at Rutgers on Wednesday. Rutgers opened the game scoring on 7 of the first 9 possessions, using a 9-0 run for a 17-7 lead. The Scarlet Knights led by as much as 13 in the opening half and as much as 23 in the game. They never trailed.
The victory marked five ranked wins on the season for Rutgers, the most ranked wins in one season in program history. Rutgers became the first unranked team in NCAA history to played four straight regular season games against ranked teams and win all four. Junior center Cliff Omoruyi had his fifth double-double of the season, with 15 points and 13 rebounds to lead RU. The Scarlet Knights dominated Illinois on the boards, winning the rebounding battle 46-28. They had 14 offensive rebounds which led to 17 second chance points.
While Kofi Cockburn and RJ Melendez led a comeback attempt late in the second half, Rutgers’ offensive attack was too much for the Illini. Cockburn did secure his 42nd career double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds to surpass Skip Thoren’s program record. The freshman Melendez scored 10 points in the second half, and the Illini cut the deficit to single digits — but it was too little too late.
Rutgers forced Illinois into tough shot after tough shot. They kept the Illini guards out of the lane most of the game which forced Illinois to shoot 38% from the field and 6-of-23 from the three-point arc. Trent Frazier, Da’Monte Williams, Alfonso Plummer, Jacob Grandison, and Andre Curbelo shot a combined 9-of-33 from the field. Illinois was 16 of 28 on dunks and layups against Rutgers. That’s 57.1 percent. Everything else: 6 of 30.
Why Bet on Michigan State?
Michigan State (18-7) lost for the third time in four games Tuesday, 62-58 at Penn State. The Nittany Lions only led the game for a total of 2:07, trailing by as much as 14 with 13:20 to play in the second half. A 33-15 game-closing run was cemented with a 12-4 Penn State advantage in the final 3:04 as the Nittany Lions clawed back for first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry’s first head coaching victory over a ranked team.
The Penn State defense held the Spartans 15 points below their season scoring average of 73.3 points per game. Seth Lundy drilled five 3-pointers to finished with a team-best 17 points. Eleven of his points came in the second half.
Junior forward Julius Marble scored 14 points and had eight rebounds to lead the Spartans, while freshman guard Max Christie added 10 points and three rebounds. MSU went ahead by four points, 54-50, after a jumper from junior guard Tyson Walker with 3:39 left. That was the last field goal for 3:36 for MSU as Penn State’s Lundy hit a 3-pointer and then gave the Nittany Lions a 55-54 lead with 1:37 left, a lead they would not relinquish.
Coach Tom Izzo lamented the Spartans lack of effort, stating they had gotten “punked and pushed around” by the Nittany Lions.
“I’ve been taking the blame when I deserve the blame,” he said. “And, right now, when you get that many loose balls and don’t come up with them, somebody on the floor has got to look in the mirror.”
After spending the majority of the first half of Big Ten play at or near the top of the conference standings, the Spartans have slipped to sixth place in the league. The Spartans’ final six games include matchups against the top four rated teams in the Big Ten. Two of those are on the road. The Spartans go to Michigan in that stretch, too. Kenpom currently has the Spartans going 2-4 in that stretch.
Expert Prediction
- Illinois 72, Michigan State 69
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