In an event renowned for its improbable finishes, Thursday’s Furman-Virginia game, where the 13th-seeded Paladins (28-7) literally snatched victory from the sharp jaws of defeat, will certainly enter the annals. Bob Richey’s team mounted a furious late-game rally, capped off by a three-pointer by JP Pegues to send the Cavs packing.
No. 5 San Diego State (28-6) on the other hand was looking to give its coach Brian Dutcher his first tournament win and snap an 11-game losing streak by teams hailing from the Mountain West, their conference. The Aztecs turned away pesky College of Charleston, picked by many to survive and advance 63-58 to make it past the opening round for the first time since 2014-15, when they made it all the way to the Sweet 16.
We will now preview the game plus our betting prediction for this Round of 64 contest. Keep reading for college basketball betting odds, analysis, and a free pick for Furman vs San Diego State.
2023 March Madness Round of 64 Game
No. 13 Furman Paladins vs. No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview
Furman of SoCon meets San Diego State of Mountain West in NCAA Tourney Second Round
ATS Odds: San Diego State -6
Moneyline Odds: Furman +205 / San Diego State -250
Over/Under Odds: 137.5 -110
When: Saturday, March 18 at 12:10 pm ET
Where: Amway Center, Orlando, FL
TV / Streaming: CBS
Furman vs San Diego State: Keys To Victory
SDSU won its fifth game in a row, scoring in the 60’s again as it has during the current winning streak. What the Aztecs lack in offensive efficiency (they’re 74th in America), they compensate for it on the defensive end as they rank 9th in defensive efficiency. This metric will come in handy as they face a Paladin team playing with lots of confidence. The alma mater of one of the game’s most legendary (and overlooked) rebounders of all time, Michael Cage, the Aztecs have owned the glass in 13 of their last 14 games.
The Furman Paladins take a ton of threes per game (they attempted 28, making 10 in the UVA win), which often leads to long rebounds. San Diego State must use its size to its advantage to avoid defeat. While Richey’s team does shoot it effectively from mid-range and around the rim, ranking 5th in America in 2-point FG percentage, the purple and white score 35.6 percent of their points from beyond the arc and are fifth in the land in threes attempted compared to 2’s taken.
For people that have watched the tournament for a while, they are well aware that a common recipe to an upset is hot shooting from beyond the three, as most underdogs , as Furman happens to be, are usually undersized and don’t match up well athletically to their higher-seeded adversary.
Also, to be considered, despite their recent run of regular season success, given their position in the Southern Conference and it being a one-bid league, this is the first time the Paladins have danced under Richey.
Furman vs San Diego State Betting Trends
- San Diego State has put together a 16-16-1 ATS record so far this year.
- Furman has compiled a 19-13-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Aztecs put up 71.8 points per game, just 0.7 more points than the 71.1 the Paladins give up.
- San Diego State is 10-6-1 against the spread and 17-1 overall when scoring more than 71.1 points.
- Furman is 11-4 against the spread and 15-1 overall when giving up fewer than 71.8 points.
- The Paladins score 18.3 more points per game (81.7) than the Aztecs give up to opponents (63.4).
- Furman has put together a 16-12 ATS record and a 24-7 overall record in games it scores more than 63.4 points.
- San Diego State has an ATS record of 13-14-1 and a 24-5 record overall when its opponents score fewer than 81.7 points.
Furman vs San Diego State: How We See It
Oftentimes, a team that is seeded 12 or below that pulls an upset Thursday or Friday sees midnight strike on their Cinderella run come the first weekend. The markets paint the Aztecs as a 5.5-point favorite, with the game total set at 137.5
Few trends and nuggets to keep an eye on SDSU is 8-3-1 against the number in its last 12, and reports from the Las Vegas desert say that a sizable play came in on the over in this one as soon as the line was posted, causing some places to move it up an entire point.
As far as our selection, we’ve watched enough of March basketball to know in these spots, cream generally rises to the top, and it is very difficult, statistically speaking for a 13-seed of lower to win two games and make it to the second week of the event.
To that end, we just feel that San Diego State finally got over the hump and won its first tournament game in eight seasons and will not overlook their South Carolina-based opponents. We would recommend taking the Aztecs, laying the points and hitting the over.
March Madness Pick: San Diego State / Over | Bet Furman vs San Diego State Today
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San Diego State vs. Charleston – First Round NCAA tournament extended highlights
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