North Carolina at Louisville NCAA Basketball Picks: New Year’s Day Game Prediction

Two blue-blood college basketball programs playing below expectations so far this season meet on New Year’s Day to tip off 2025 as North Carolina visits Louisville in ACC action.

The Tar Heels arrives as solid favorites on the NCAAB odds in Week 9.

How to Bet North Carolina at Louisville NCAA Basketball Picks

NCAAB Moneylines: North Carolina -115 / Louisville -115
When: Wednesday, 6 PM ET
Where: KFC Yum! Center
TV: ACC Network
Stream: ESPN+ ^

North Carolina Basketball Analysis

UNC (8-5) was a preseason Top 25 team and might get back there next week by winning both games this week. The Heels won their second in a row on Sunday, 97-81 over Campbell. Reigning ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis scored 23 points and became the leading three-point shooter in school history in the victory.

RJ Davis

Davis hit a season-high five three-pointers and added four rebounds and five assists. He now has 303 three-pointers in his career, passing Marcus Paige (299) for the most in school history. It was Davis’ 30th career game with at least four three-pointers and his ninth with five or more.

Davis has 2,333 career points. Against Campbell, he passed Jeff Lamp (Virginia) and Mike Gminski (Duke) for 10th place in ACC career scoring. He needs 15 points to pass Armando Bacot for second place in UNC career scoring.

Marcus Paige

Paige joined the staff in the summer of 2023 and has been there for Davis’ last 142 three-point shots—almost half his career total—and his ACC Player of the Year season last year.

“Since I’ve been here, he’s gotten better at understanding that his best asset is his three and the threat of his three,” Paige says. “When he hunts three-pointers he is so much better and the threat of his shooting has made him a better screener and playmaker, too.”

Hubert Davis

“I do feel like [RJ Davis] is in a better rhythm out there on the floor,” head coach Davis said. “I feel like the last three games, he is finding his rhythm, with a new and changing lineup. One of those things is the growth of Ian, you have another scorer out there. When you have another person out there that can go get buckets, it’s very similar to what he experienced from last year, where you had Cormac [Ryan], Harrison [Ingram] and Armando [Bacot], to have a little bit more space and be able to get into his offensive game.”

Freshman’s Points

Freshman Jackson scored a season-high 26, and Elliot Cadeau had a career-high 12 assists and recorded his first career double-double by adding 12 points. Jalen Washington posted his second double-figure scoring game of the season with 10 points and five rebounds. Drake Powell hit a pair of three-pointers and scored 12 points.

A true playmaker ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/IUOy0B7EQE

— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) December 31, 2024

Seth Trimble

Trimble (upper-body injury), who is averaging 14.8 points per game this season, did not play. Jackson made his first career start in Trimble’s place. Jackson became the first UNC freshman to score 20 in consecutive games since Cole Anthony had 25 at Syracuse and 28 vs. Wake Forest in 2019-20. Jackson is the 10th Tar Heel freshman to score 24 or more points in consecutive games and the first since Anthony in 2019-20.

To Consider

The game marked the first time multiple freshmen have started for the Tar Heels since Caleb Love and Kerwin Walton started against Wisconsin in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels shot 62.5 percent in the second half and 57.1 percent overall as they pulled away from the Camels. UNC is 5-1 this season and 28-1 in the last four seasons when it makes at least half its shots from the floor. Carolina is 26-2 under Davis when it scores 90 or more points.

The Stats

Carolina has allowed 20.2 more points in its five losses (91.0) than the opponents have averaged in UNC’s seven wins (70.9). This season is the second ever in which the Tar Heels played four top-10 opponents prior to New Year’s Day. Carolina played at No. 1 Kansas, No. 4 Auburn in Maui, No. 10 Alabama and No. 7 Florida in Charlotte. Carolina’s non-conference strength of schedule is No. 3 in the country.

Louisville Basketball Analysis

Louisville (8-5) is much improved under first-year coach Pat Kelsey and won its second game in a row Saturday, 78-76 over Eastern Kentucky. The Cardinals built a 10-point lead with a 12-0 run midway through the second half, but the Colonels stormed back and took the lead, 76-75 on a 3-pointer by George Kimble III with 1:22 left to play. Devontae Blanton missed a jumper that would have extended the lead and Louisville’s J’Vonne Hadley rebounded with eight seconds left. Noah Waterman then drove the baseline and scored between a sea of arms surrounding the rim for the win with 1.2 seconds left.

Terrence Edwards Jr.

UofL’s Edwards Jr. led all scorers with 17 points on 6 of 8 shooting, including a perfect 3 for 3 clip from long range, in the opening 20 minutes. Hadley logged a double-double in the afternoon with 15 points and 10 rebounds. He added two blocks and three steals in his 36 minutes. Louisville outrebounded Eastern Kentucky 47-32, with a 21-11 edge on the offensive glass.

Pat Kelsey

“Fortunate to come out with the win, it’s not always going to be pretty, it was a little ugly tonight. Noah Waterman stepped up. He’s a little banged up, but like all of our guys, he’s tough as heck and continues to fight through it and made a shot that he’s going to tell his grandkids about. You play your entire career and some guys don’t make shots at the buzzer to win a game, I know it wasn’t right at the buzzer, but it’s a buzzer shot. So it’s a big time, big time shot, and I’m proud of him” Kelsey said.

Hell of a play by Waterman #GoCards pic.twitter.com/SswuMVIRvt

— Louisville Men's Basketball (@LouisvilleMBB) December 28, 2024

Injuries

Losing Kasean Pryor (knee) and Koren Johnson (shoulder) to season-ending injuries hurt this team, but Aboubacar Traore should alleviate some of that after returning from a 10-game absence for a 5-minute, 15-second stint against Eastern Kentucky. Kelsey has described Traore, a 6-foot-5 senior forward, as a “Swiss Army Knife,” and his team could certainly use one. He averaged 12 points, 8.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists en route to being named the Big West Conference’s Best Hustle Player in back-to-back years as a junior at Long Beach State.

“It’s just going to take a little bit of time to get (him) into a rhythm,” Kelsey said after defeating the Colonels, “but he’s going to be really good for us.”

The Record

Louisville is fourth in the country in 3-point attempts per game (32.5) and 44th in 3-pointers per game (9.7). Chucky Hepburn is eighth in the country in steals per game at 2.77 and sixth in total steals with 36. Reyne Smith is 16th in the country in 3-pointers per game at 3.38, sixth in total three-point attempts (118) and 13th in total 3-pointers made (44). Fifth-year senior forward Kasean Pryor tore his ACL in late November and will be out for the remainder of the 2024-25 season.

AP Poll

The Cards’ five losses have all come to teams now ranked in the AP Top 25: No. 1 Tennessee, No. 4 Duke, No. 10 Kentucky, No. 12 Oklahoma and No. 24 Ole Miss. Those teams are a combined 56-6. Kelsey is 0-2 in his career against North Carolina. The Cards have lost five straight to UNC by an average of 19 points. Their last win over the Tar Heels was Feb. 22, 2020.

“Very, very, very good,” Kelsey said of the Tar Heels. “Like us, they played one of the toughest schedules in the country, at least when I go back and look at strength of schedule and stuff like that.”

North Carolina vs Louisville Last Meeting

North Carolina leads the all-time series 20-7, but Louisville is 5-4 in true home games. They are scheduled for just one meeting this season and had one in the 2023-24 campaign, with Carolina winning 86-70 at home behind 21 points from RJ Davis, who remains UNC’s star. North Carolina broke out to leads of 15-4 and 26-9 and was up 46-29 at halftime. Even shooting 64% in the second half wasn’t enough for the Cardinals.

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