Big Ten Play: #9 Purdue at Penn State Lines & 2024 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Big Ten Play: #9 Purdue at Penn State Lines & 2024 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

No. 9 Purdue largely dominated Big Ten competition the past couple of years thanks to superstar Zach Edey, but he’s now in the NBA.

The Boilermakers open 2024-25 Big Ten play on upset alert at a very good Penn State team that is in fact a short favorite on the NCAAB odds in Week 5.

Opening NCAAB Lines Subject to Change: Penn State -2 (total 150)
Expert Prediction: Purdue 75, Penn State 73
 

Purdue Boilermakers NCAAB Moneyline +115

Purdue (7-1) won its third game in a row last Friday, 80-78 over No. 23 Ole Miss, as Myles Colvin rebounded Braden Smith’s missed fade away jumper and scored with 0.5 seconds left to give the Boilers the title in the Rady Children’s Invitational from San Diego. Ole Miss tied it at 78 on Matthew Murrell’s layup with 14.7 seconds left. After two timeouts by Ole Miss and one by Purdue, the Boilermakers went down the floor for the winning sequence, with star Braden Smith shooting from the right baseline and Colvin swooping in for the rebound and the put back.

The win snapped Ole Miss’ 19-game, non-conference winning streak, which had been the nation’s longest streak. Purdue’s 39-game non-conference winning streak was ended on Nov. 15 by Marquette, enabling Ole Miss to have the longest streak.

Trey Kaufman-Renn

Kaufman-Renn was named Tournament MVP after recording his first career double-double with 25 points, 13 rebounds and three assists. In two games, Kaufman-Renn averaged 23.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game while shooting 16-of-26 (.615) from the field. Kaufman-Renn is averaging 21.4 points and 8.0 rebounds per game in his last five games.

Braden Smith

Preseason Big Ten Player of the Year, Smith recorded his third double-double of the season and 12th of his career with an 18-point, 11-assist, 6-rebound effort, making 4-of-6 from long range. Smith moved into 40th place on the Big Ten’s all-time assists list, now with 518 career assists in just 82 games. Smith recorded his 13th career 10-assist game, now the third-most, 10-assist games in the Big Ten in the last 20 years. Fletcher Loyer added 13 points and combined with Smith tallied 31 points in the victory. Purdue is now 24-1 in their careers when they combine for 25 points in a game.

Player of the Week

Kaufman-Renn was named Big Ten Player of the Week for last week and the 6-foot, 9-inch forward is averaging 19.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game while shooting 60.4 percent from the field. He is one of five players in the country to average at least 19 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists, and is the only one to shoot at least 60.0 percent from the field.

Purdue is now 1-of-7 teams nationally with at least two wins over top-25 teams this season. It has 40 wins over nationally-ranked teams since the start of the 2017-18 season, the second most nationally. Purdue owns the best record against nationally-ranked teams since the start of the 2021-22 season, now with a 21-7 overall record (.750). Connecticut is next with a 21-11 record (.656).

Matt Painter Era

The win was the 75th victory over a ranked team during the Matt Painter era, now with a 75-95 record. Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Purdue is 12-2 against top-25 teams. The Boilermakers are heading to State College for the first time since Jan. 2022, and are looking for their seventh straight road win in the series with the Nittany Lions.

The Streak

Purdue has won 25 straight games when holding its opponent under 70 points. The last loss came to Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. During Purdue’s three-game winning streak, opponents are averaging 61.3 points and shooting just 38.9 percent from the field.

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Penn State Nittany Lions NCAAB Moneyline -141

Penn State (7-1) last took the court on Sunday and beat Buffalo 87-64. The Lions led by 10 at the half. Freddie Dilione Jr. and Yanic Konan Niederhauser hit back-to-back 3-pointers three minutes into the second half to push the lead to 44-31 and after Nick Kern Jr. scored at the basket and Zach Hicks knocked down a 3 to make it 50-36 with under 14 minutes left the Nittany Lions maintained their double-digit lead the rest of the way. They shot 70.4 percent (19-27) from the field and 66.7 percent (6-9) from 3-point range in the second half.

Konan Niederhauser

Niederhauser went off for a career high-tying 27 points behind a stellar 12-for-16 showing from the field, including seven dunks. Dilione tallied a career-best 16 points to go along with four assists. Ace Baldwin Jr. orchestrated masterfully with a game-high 10 assists. Kern Jr. also finished in double figures with 12 points.

Scored Points

Penn State has scored 85+ points in seven of its eight games this season. The Nittany Lions are averaging 91.3 points per game, a mark that ranks top 10 in Division I. The Nittany Lions rank in the top 10 in the country in points per game (91.3 ppg – 3rd), field goal percentage (52.2% – 5th) and steals per game (10.8 – 10th). Five PSU players are averaging double-digit points, led by Baldwin Jr.’s 14.9 ppg.

The Streak

The Nittany Lions have now won eight-straight home games dating back to last season. The 7-1 start is the team’s best since the 2019-20 club also began 7-1. No PSU team has started 8-1 sinc the 2014-15 team started 12-1. The Lions have played 320 minutes of basketball this season and trailed for just 37 minutes and 36 seconds. Penn State is outscoring its opponents by an average of 23.8 points per game, a mark that ranks 11th in all of the Division I. All seven of Penn State’s wins have come by at least 13 points.

PSU is looking to beat a team ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll for the first time since Dec. 10, 2019 when it knocked off No. 4 Maryland, 78-61. The Nittany Lions open Big Ten play at home for just the fifth time in the last 16 years. Penn State finished tied for ninth in the conference standings a season ago at 9-11, as Mike Rhoades guided the Nittany Lions to second-most Big Ten wins by a first-year head coach in program history.

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How to Bet Purdue at Penn State Lines NCAA Basketball

When: Thursday, 6:30 PM ET
Where: Bryce Jordan Center
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream: Fox Sports Live

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Purdue vs Penn State Last Meeting

Last season, the schools met just once, and Purdue rolled 95-78 at home when it was No. 1 in the country. Zach Edey dominated with 30 points and 20 rebounds, and the Boilers made 11 three-pointers. The Boilermakers had eight of those in the first half as they took a 56-36 halftime lead. They have won eight straight in this series.

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