#4 Florida State vs #1 Michigan

#4 Florida State vs #1 Michigan | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Written by on March 26, 2021

The marquee matchup of the four Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament games on Sunday is from the East Region as No. 1 Michigan of the Big Ten faces No. 4 Florida State of the ACC, with the Wolverines as 3-point favorites on the NCAAB odds.

How to Bet Florida State vs. Michigan NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

Last Meeting

This will be the fifth all-time meeting with Michigan up 3-1. The schools played in the 2018 Elite Eight when the No. 3 Wolverines beat the No. 9 Seminoles 58-54 in Los Angeles.

Why Bet on Florida State? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

FSU (18-6) earned a trip to the Sweet 16 with a dominant 71-53 win over a good Colorado squad that made just 36% of its field goal attempts and committed 19 turnovers against Florida State’s defensive pressure. Coach Leonard Hamilton credited some of the uncharacteristically poor perimeter shooting and early mistakes against UNC Greensboro to the anxiety of the tournament, and then the Seminoles bounced back with a quality win against a tough Colorado team.

Junior Anthony Polite scored a career-high 22 points to lead the Seminoles to the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season and for the seventh time in school history. Polite pulled down five rebounds, totaled a game-high four assists, and contributed a game-high four steals.

The Seminoles’ defense held Colorado to .357 percent shooting from the field, .240 percent shooting from the 3-point line and to 53 points – the fewest points scored by the Buffaloes since February 20, 2016.  The 53 points allowed by the Seminoles ranks as the fewest points allowed by Florida State in an NCAA Tournament game. The Seminoles also had double the number of steals as Colorado (10-5) and totaled 20 fast break points as compared to only two for Colorado.

The Seminoles have allowed only 107 points in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament – 53 by Colorado and 54 by UNC Greensboro in the first round. After not making a single three-point shot against UNCG, the Seminoles shot .353 from beyond the arc against Colorado (six of 17). Florida State was 17 of 21 from the line (.810) and Colorado, the best free throw shooting team in the nation, was seven of 11 (.636).

That win against the Buffs was important because it had been more than a month since Florida State had beaten a top-20 KenPom team. The Seminoles have four players scoring in double figures, led by M.J. Walker’s 12.3 points per game.

Why Bet on Michigan? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Michigan (22-4) rallied to beat No. 8 LSU 86-78 in Round 2 to advance to the Sweet 16 for the fourth consecutive tournament. Senior Chaundee Brown Jr. had a Michigan career-high 21 points and was key to the second-half comeback, scoring seven of the Wolverines’ nine points during a run midway through the second half.

Senior Eli Brooks collected 21 points as he matched his career high of five three-pointers while adding a team-high seven assists. Freshman Hunter Dickinson picked up a double-double with 12 points and 11 rebounds, and sophomore Franz Wagner had 15 points, with nine coming in the final five minutes of the game.

Many teams would have significantly regressed if they’d lost a player like Isaiah Livers (13.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists per game) just before the NCAA tournament – Coach Juwan Howard has declared declaring that the standout is still “out indefinitely.” But Michigan’s depth has allowed the top seed to advance and still look like a team that can chase a championship.

After U-M holding Texas Southern to 1-for-12 shooting (8.3 percent) from three-point range in Round 1, the Wolverines held LSU to 6-for-21 shooting (28.6 percent) from beyond the arc. Overall, opponents are shooting 21.2 percent from deep in this tournament.

Michigan has gone 41-for-51 (80.4 percent) from the free-throw line with back-to-back games of 20+ makes — Texas Southern (21-for-26) and LSU (20-for-25). After opening the season with 80+ points in nine of its first 10 games, Michigan had just two more in its next 14. So far in the NCAA Tournament, U-M has posted back-to-back 80+ games with 82 against Texas Southern and 86 vs. LSU.

Five players are scoring in double figures, led by 16.0 points per game from Brooks. He is shooting 50 percent from the field (10-for-20) and 53.3 percent (8-for-15) from three-point range. Dickinson is posting 14.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, shooting 71.4 percent (10-for-14) from the field.

Game Trends

  • Seminoles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
  • Seminoles are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as an underdog.
  • Seminoles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Wolverines are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
  • Wolverines are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games overall.

Expert Prediction

  • Michigan 73, Florida State 72

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