Baylor Vs TCU Expert Analysis - NCAAB Betting

Baylor Vs TCU Expert Analysis – NCAAB Betting

Written by on January 8, 2021

The second-ranked Baylor Bears will have a two-fold purpose when they hit the road to take on Big 12 rival TCU in an intriguing conference clash on Saturday. First, Baylor will look to keep it pristine record unblemished. The Bears will also be looking to extract some revenge for last season’s stunning road loss against the Horned Frogs.

With Baylor look to take care of business as a road favorite and TCU looking for the upset as a home dog, let’s find out which team is offering the best value against their College Basketball odds in this contest.

College Basketball Predictions – No. 2 Baylor at TCU

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 9, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET
  • Where: Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX
  • TV: ESPN
  • NCAAB Odds: TBD

Why Bet On No. 2 Baylor

There are a bunch of great reasons to back the Bears college basketball bettors. Not only has Baylor answered the bell in all 10 of their games this season, but this team is so proficient at both ends of the floor, I think every team in the nation is going to find it difficult to beat the Big 12 leaders.

The Bears got past Oklahoma 76-61 on Wednesday night as senior guard MaCio Teague scored a team-high 17 points and junior forward Matthew Mayer added 16 points.

Baylor has used its explosive, sixth-ranked offense (91.2 ppg) to get the job done in most games, but the Bears have been led by their lockdown defense in others games. Sometimes it’s Teague and Mayer leading the way other times, it’s been Baylor’s collection of heady players that leads the way to victory.

“Each and every night, the luxury we have is we have different guys that can get going,” coach Scott Drew said.

Baylor has been so commanding that they’ve won all 10 of their games by at least 11 points with an average margin of victory of 28.8 points per game. The Bears have led by at least 13 points at halftime in all but three games. Still, Drew said he expects his team to face bigger challenges moving further into the season.

“Us coaches know that there is no safe lead in the Big 12,” Drew said. “Look at West Virginia the other night — Oklahoma State was up 19 with 11 minutes to go. We’ve had big leads and lost them. The tough thing is you fight against human nature when you get a big lead. You think and assume things are going to be easy, and in the Big 12 they’re not.”

The Bears will look to extract some revenge after losing at TCU 75-72 last season. Baylor has actually lost four of the last six meetings against the Horned Frogs. The Bears have gone 2-0 on the road this season and 3-0 in neutral site games this season.

Offense:

  • Points/G: 91.2
  • Field Goal %: 51.3
  • 3-Point %: 43.6
  • Free Throw %: 72.1
  • Rebounds/G: 36.9

Defense:

  • Points/G: 62.4
  • Field Goal %: 41.5
  • 3-Point %: 30.4
  • Free Throw %: 65.4
  • Rebounds/G: 27.1

Why Bet On TCU

The Horned Frogs had their five-game winning streak emphatically snapped in their embarrassing 93-64 home loss against No. 6 Kansas on Tuesday night.

“It was extremely disappointing. I didn’t see it coming,” coach Jamie Dixon said. “We’re a better team than this. It’s easy to say but now we’ve got to go do something about it against another good team.”

USC senior transfer Chuck O’Bannon Jr. had a career-high 18 points to lead the Horned Frogs in scoring, but senior guard R.J. Nembhard, the leading scorer in the Big 12 at 18.7 points per game, finished with a modest 14 points to snap a streak of four straight 20-point performances. Freshman guard Mike Miles, who was averaging 14.8 points entering Tuesday’s game, was scoreless against Kansas and missed all eight shots from the field.

“I have great confidence that he’s going to respond and come out and perform,” Dixon said.

TCU has held its opponents to just below 40 percent shooting in its nine victories. In three losses, all at home, the Horned Frogs have allowed opponents to shoot a blistering 53.6 percent from the floor.

“It’s pretty obvious. It’s pretty clear that our defense determines our success,” Dixon said.

The Horned Frogs have gone an uninspiring 4-3 at home this season.

Offense:

  • Points/G: 71.1
  • Field Goal %: 46.8
  • 3-Point %: 35.7
  • Free Throw %: 64.0
  • Rebounds/G: 32.5

Defense:

  • Points/G: 68.2
  • Field Goal %: 43.4
  • 3-Point %: 29.1
  • Free Throw %: 69.6
  • Rebounds/G: 31.3

Expert Analysis and Prediction

TCU might have gotten the huge upset last season, but they most certainly won’t this time around. Baylor is the better team at both ends of the floor. The Bears have a huge edge in quality depth and the Big 12 leaders are really well-coached and know their individual roles.

Baylor is 8-2 ATS on the year and 4-1 ATS when they play away from home. TCU is 5-7 ATS on the year and 1-6 ATS on their home floor. With the Horned Frogs going 1-3 ATS over their last four, I like the second-ranked Baylor Bears to get it done again!

Pick: Baylor 78 TCU 65


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