Purdue vs. Iowa

Purdue vs. Iowa | 2020 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Written by on December 21, 2020

Coming off its first loss of the season, Top-10 team Iowa looks to bounce back Tuesday night when it faces Purdue in Big Ten action. It’s the conference opener for the Hawkeyes, but the second Big Ten game for the Boilers, who will be NCAAB underdogs.

How to Bet Purdue at Iowa NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

  • When: Tuesday, 9 PM ET
  • Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena
  • TV: Big Ten Network
  • Stream: BTN+
  • Radio:com
  • Opening NCAAB Lines: TBA (Iowa likely around -7)

Last Meeting

Iowa was 0-2 vs. Purdue last season. The game in Iowa City was a 77-68 loss. The Hawkeyes shot just 37.5% from the field, 31% in the first half.  Eric Hunter Jr., scored 19 points, and Evan Boudreaux had 14 points and 14 rebounds to lead the Boilermakers. They made 19 3-pointers and shot 63.1% from the field in the first game. Hawkeyes star Luke Garza had 26 points and 12 rebounds but no one else did much.

Why Bet on Purdue? | 2020 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Boilers (6-2) beat Notre Dame 88-78 on Saturday at a neutral site in Indianapolis.  Sasha Stefanovic and Eric Hunter Jr. each scored 18 points in a Crossroads Classic Challenge game. Stefanovic started the game with a 3-pointer, and with 7:12 left to play, buried a 3 for a 72-61 lead and Purdue led by double figures the rest of the way. Stefanovic was 6-for-8 shooting including 5-of-7 from 3-point range.

Hunter finished 4-of-7 from 3-point range and distributed eight assists. Hunter set a career high with those assists to go along with 18 points and five rebounds, while having no turnovers. He is just the third player nationally to reach those marks in a single game with no turnovers (Ohio’s Jason Preston; Bowling Green’s Justin Turner). Trevion Williams scored 14 points and Mason Gillis scored 12 for the Boilermakers. Purdue made half their 28 3-point attempts.

When Hunter leads the team in assists during his career, Purdue is 12-3. Purdue’s six turnovers were a season low and its fewest since having six against Illinois on Jan. 5, 2020 (last season) – a span of 24 games. Purdue has had at least 20 assists in four of eight games this year, after having 20 against the Irish.

Purdue is now 130-13 under Coach Matt Painter when having fewer turnovers and outrebounding its opponent, having won 11 straight games. Purdue improved to 33-7 in the month of December since the start of the 2015-16 season. The Boilers are 45-1 since the start of the 2017-18 season when shooting better than 48.0 percent from the field.

Last Wednesday, Painter won his 50th game against a nationally-ranked team against Ohio State. He is 50-83 against ranked teams, including a 20-19 record since the start of the 2016-17 season. Of his 50 wins against ranked teams, 20 have come in the last 4+ seasons.  Purdue has outscored every team in the paint except one (Miami) this season. Purdue is averaging 32.3 points in the paint.

According to KenPom.com, Purdue ranks 299th in experience (1.11 years). Indiana is the next least-experienced team in the Big Ten (1.26)

Why Bet on Iowa? | 2020 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Hawkeyes (6-1) were beaten by No. 1 Gonzaga 99-88 on Saturday in a potential national championship game preview. A 13-0 run midway through the first half turned a one-point lead into a 12-point advantage and Iowa was never truly in reach the rest of the way. The Bulldogs hadn’t played a game since Dec. 2 against West Virginia, due to COVID-19 cancellations and protocols.

Iowa big man Luka Garza, the Wooden Award favorite, finished with 30 points and 10 rebounds for the Hawkeyes, shooting 13-for-18 from the field. Garza eclipsed 30 points for the fourth time of seven games this season and ninth time in his career. Garza and Joe Wieskamp combined for 50 of Iowa’s 88 points. Wieskamp equaled a season high with 20 points, netting 15 in the second half. T

The Hawkeyes missed 12 free throws (14-of-26) and shot a season-low 4-of-22 (.182) from 3-point range. The Zags controlled the glass, pulling down 12 more rebounds than the Hawkeyes (49-37).

“We are a better rebounding team than what we showed,” said Garza. “For us to win, we need to be tougher and get the 50-50 balls.”

Garza has scored at least 30 points on 90 percent shooting twice in six games. He is the only major conference player over the last 25 years to have two such games in a season since N.C. State’s J.J. Hickson (2007-08) and Duke’s Carlos Boozer (2001-02).

Iowa, who has led the Big Ten in scoring each of the last two seasons, is the highest scoring offense in the country, averaging 98.7 points per game. Iowa is one of eight schools from Power 5 conferences to have at least 65 percent of its production return from the previous season.

Expert Prediction

  • Iowa 82, Purdue 76

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