According to estimates, the belief is that over $21 billion will be wagered by Americans on the Super Bowl this weekend. MyBookie Sportsbook | Avoid These 6 Super Bowl Betting Mistakes
No matter which way you slice it, that is a lot of money, much of which will come from casual bettors putting money on the game for fun. A good portion of those bettors will lose their money, and a lot of them will do so because they make mistakes while getting in on the action. There are certainly plenty pf pitfalls to be found in sports betting, which is why only the best are able to consistently walk away a winner. This list could be huge, but let’s take a look at 6 common mistakes made in Super Bowl betting.
1.Betting With Your Heart
If you are a fan of either the Chiefs or 49ers, it is always tough to bet against your team, but betting with your heart is the quickest way to lose your money. Sure, you want your team to win every week and especially in the big game, but someone always has to lose. Before betting, you need to look at all the angles and use your head, even if that means betting against your team. If you aren’t able to do that, maybe sit this one out.
2.Stick With Your Bet
With 2 weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, there is a lot of time for the odds to change. The majority of the wagers are placed in the 48 hours leading up to the game, but there are also plenty who get their wagers places as soon as the odds are released. If you are in that group, place your bets and leave them be. Don’t start adjusting or changing when the odds change.
3.Contradictory Betting
This tends to happen when talking about prop bets. Let’s say that you have placed a bet on the UNDER, does it then make sense to start dropping prop bets on QBs having career passing yard days? If you plan on placing a ton of bets, make sure that they all sync up in some way.
4.Understand Your Bets
While it’s fun to have multiple wagers on the go throughout the game, stick to those that you understand the best. A straight up pick is simple, and maybe a little boring, but it is easy to understand. Don’t start trying to put together parlay tickets using wagers that you hope will come up without fully understanding what they are about.
5.High-Risk Wagers
Another mistake that bettors make is placing bets that have the potential to pay out big, but which are very much of the high-risk variety. These include parlays and betting on extreme longshots. Yes, the payouts will be huge, but the chances of them coming up are slim. You are better off with smaller, more predictable bets that will slowly build your bankroll.
6.Blowing Your Budget
Most of us have a budget in mind when we get into sports betting, and if that is indeed the case, do not deviate from that budget just because it’s the biggest game of the year. Only wager what you can reasonably afford to lose, even if that means betting smaller or skipping some prop bets you’d love to make.
| Super Bowl Game Picks Odds Subject to Change | SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2 | +105 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -2 | -125 | O 47.5 |
People tune into the Super Bowl for very different reasons. You have the fans of the competing teams tuning in, hoping to see their team end the year as a champion. MyBookie Sportsbook | Avoid These 6 Super Bowl Betting Mistakes
You have people going to parties that don’t really care about the game, but who get caught up in the spirit of the whole thing. Then you have the serious bettors, all of whom are looking to cash in on the final game of the season. The one thing that a lot of these groups have in common is that the vast majority will have some sort of action going on in the Super Bowl. The serious bettors more than likely have a formula that they follow all season long, which they will not deviate from in the championship game. For those who are simply betting to have some fun, or for the more casual bettor, there are a number of mistakes that they make that is tantamount to basically handing all their money over to the bookies. Let’s take a look at 6 of the most common mistakes that Super Bowl bettors make so that you can avoid them this weekend.
1.Heart Over Head
A lot of people make this error, but it is very often the fans of the competing teams in the Super Bowl that fall prey to this mistake. Desperately wanting your team to win is fine, as well as being totally expected, but basing all of your wagers based on nothing more than that is a recipe for disaster. Super Bowl 58 figures to be a close one, so it is not entirely ridiculous to bet on either team to win, but you still need to take the time to break the game down and make the bets that give you the best shot of winning, even if that means betting against the team that you are rooting for.
This type of thinking also spills over into prop bets, especially when talking about individual player props. Don’t simply bet on one QB or another to have a career day when they are going up against a great defense. Sure, it can happen, but chances are it won’t, and you will be left out of pocket. If you cannot stomach the idea of betting against your team, it’s better to sit it out than make a foolish bet.
2.Altering Bets
With 2 weeks between the Conference Championship Round and the Super Bowl, there is plenty of time to think about your wagers to make sure that you are positive about what you are doing. The fact of the matter is that there is unlikely to be a whole lot of movement in the odds during that time, which is why some bettors like to get their wagers placed as soon as the odds are released, even though the majority of the money is placed in the 48 hours leading up to the game.
If you were early to get your wagers in, leave them be. Don’t get lulled into making more bets because of a slight change in the odds. The thing here is that you should only place your wagers when you are totally sure of how you think the game will go, even if that means waiting until the very last second to do it.
3.Inconsistent Wagering
This is a common mistake that a lot of people probably don’t even think about. With so many different prop wagers available for the Super Bowl, it’s easy to start printing tickets without really thinking about your overall strategy. What do we mean by that? Let’s use the point total as an example. The Chiefs and the 49ers both have outstandings defenses, which is more than likely going to lead bettors in the direction of the UNDER when playing the point total. That’s a solid enough bet, but if you then go to the player props and start betting the OVER on total yards and such, you are essentially wagering against yourself.
4.Not Playing What You Know
Given the wide range of bets available for the Super Bowl, it can be tempting to stick your finger in every available pie. The feeling here is that this is the best way to maximize your potential earnings, but what you are doing might have the opposite effect if you are making wagers without fully understanding the intricacies involved. If you don’t regularly follow football, why would you then start making wagers on props that involve individual or team performances? Unless you go on some crazy crash course in the 2 weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, you run the risk of throwing money away. If you are betting for fun, keep it simple and wager on things like the straight up win or the spread.
5.Going For Broke
Specifically here, we are talking about investing your betting dollars in high-risk wagers. Yes, the returns are potentially fantastic, but when you are looking at long odds, be aware that the bookies have listed those odds for a reason. They know a whole lot more about these things than you do, so your chances of getting one over on them on a high-risk bet are not particularly great. While smaller wins are not exciting as those big splash plays, the reality is that it’s those smaller wins that will help you build your bankroll over time. Going the high-risk route is never the way to go if you want to be a consistent winner.
6.Overspending
Yes, we get it, the Super Bowl is exciting. It’s very easy to get caught up in all the excitement and start throwing money around on wagers like it’s going out of style. This is always a bad idea, especially if you are breaking your own budget or wagering rules to place those bets. You should never bet more than you can reasonably and comfortably afford to lose, so even if you start the day strong by winning a couple of early prop bets, don’t fool yourself into thinking that your luck is going to continue throughout the day. Set a budget and stick to it.
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Avoid These Super Bowl 51 Betting Mistakes
In Depth Analysis On The Avoid These 6 Super Bowl 51 Betting Mistakes
If you’re gearing up for the quickly approaching Super Bowl 51 showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots and you’re looking to formulate your betting plan on the big game, then you need to know that there are some timeless mistakes that you definitely want to void at all costs.
Thanks to the expert betting analysis that you’re about to get, you’re going to find out all about avoiding the top six mistakes that NFL betting odds enthusiasts make when betting on the Super Bowl. Let’s get started.
In Depth Analysis On The Avoid These 6 Super Bowl 51 Betting Mistakes
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
When: Sunday, February 5 at 6:30 PM ET Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas Spread: New England -3 Moneyline: Atlanta +140 at New England -160 / Game Total: 58Mistiming You Super Bowl Bet
Thousands of casual and experienced Super Bowl bettors alike often make their Super Bowl bets either too early or too late. Let’s take the Super Bowl 51 odds for example. After opening as a favorite between 2.5 and 4 points, the New England Patriots are currently solid 3-point favorites to beat Atlanta at almost every sportsbook there is. Now, if you plan on backing the Patriots, then you likely want to get Tom Brady and company early as the odds for New England winning Super Bowl 51 almost assuredly won’t go any lower than the three points it currently sits at, barring an injury to a key starter.
Conversely, if you’re thinking about betting on Matt Ryan and the high-scoring Falcons to pull off the upset, you may want to wait a while longer to make your wager in the hopes that the Super Bowl 51 betting line will move closer to 4 or even 4.5 points. If you already bet on the Falcons as a 2.5-point underdog, then you could be losing a valuable point or point and a half.
As is the case almost every season, the Super Bowl betting line generally shows some form of movement whether big or small – and it has already done so with the Pats, so expect some more movement before Super Bowl 51 takes place. If you didn’t know, the vast majority of Super Bowl bets (97 percent) don’t come in until about 48 hours before the big game, so don’t rush your wager, but don’t wait too long either – it could also cost you valuable points. If you already got New England at 2.5 or 3 points, then you should know that by waiting too long you could lose that same 1-1.5 points that you’d gain of you were betting on Atlanta.
Same Direction Props Bets
When it comes to props betting, the simple thought process is that you should start with the spread and Over/Under total and make sure your props picks are all leaning toward the same outcomes that you’re expecting.
For instance, if you like the Over and you’re expecting Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to light up the Patriots for over 300 passing yards, then you probably don’t want to go making props wagers for either Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman to top their respective rushing total props odds.
Maybe you believe the Patriots’ underrated defense will put the clamps on Ryan and company and you think the Under will play out. Then you’re surely not going to go making wagers on Ryan or superstar wide receiver Julio Jones to top their personal passing and receiving yards props odds. The bottom line is that you need to make sure your props bets aren’t polar-opposite picks that contradict one another.
Is the Price Right?
Inexperienced NFL betting enthusiasts often make the massive mistake of not paying attention to the juice attached to specific wagers, particularly when the Super Bowl rolls around and a multitude of props odds become available in addition to the usual side, moneyline and total odds.
Many times props odds wagers will carry ridiculous price tags that are set up to draw attention to the wager or have been set after the betting market for the wager has been firmly established.
Think like a professional and make sure you’re wary of high or overpriced betting lines. Most pros in the industry won’t pay more than -150 for any wager and that is a timeless technique that you may want to incorporate into your own betting style.
Halftime Bets/Chasing Lines
I can tell you from personal knowledge that I know several NFL football bettors that chase lines or go all in on halftime betting opportunities – generally after losing some cash in the first half. Bettors will often start making ‘wishful’ wagers that don’t have the value they should or worse, start making wagers that go against the very thought process they may have formed prior to the Super Bowl.
Case in point…let’s say you played the Over 52 total points or Over 24 first half points and the score is 13-3 at the half. Many bettors will then throw money on the Under or second half Under in the hopes of getting back some of the earnings they lost in the first half. Making halftime bets and chasing lines is a definite no-no that Super Bowl bettors should avoid.
Media Overexposure
In today’s fast-paced, high-tech times where information flows as easily as the Mississippi River, Super Bowl bettors can often get an overload of media exposure that alters their way of thinking – and betting on the Super Bowl. While being knowledgeable and making informed wagers is certainly part of the prescription for Super Bowl betting success, media overexposure can often be detrimental as well.
For instance, let’s say you’re initial thought on Super Bowl 51 was that Atlanta was a great pick at +3 against New England, but after watching some ESPN and NFL Network experts rave about Tom Brady’s postseason success, you begin to have second thoughts about picking the Falcons to cover. Maybe they’ve gone online and read so many Brady, Bill Belichick and New England Patriots-related articles that they then go against their initial thought and change their minds on their pick for Atlanta.
Remember, with two weeks between the conference championships and the Super Bowl, every single matchup and every single aspect of the game will be analyzed to an endless degree, often times incorrectly by those who claim to be ‘experts’. Believe it or not, there is such a thing as an overload of media overexposure. Don’t let this new-age phenomenon alter your initial thought process and remember, going with your first mind is usually the right choice.
Fun Factor
Who wants to watch the Super Bowl while worrying if they’re going to be able to meet next week’s monthly mortgage payment? No one, that’s who!
Whether your favorite team is the Falcons or the Patriots or neither, no football fan or betting enthusiast wants to watch the Super Bowl in a perpetual state of worry. Remember, just because the Super Bowl is a big game, that doesn’t mean you have to bet ‘big’ money or should I say, bigger than you’ve planned on wagering.
Imagine you’re at some fun-filled Super Bowl party with hot wings and even hotter attendees and everyone’s having a grand old time enjoying the game and socializing – except you. Instead of throwing back some cold ones that come on the heels of some hot pizza or buffalo wings, you’re watching the big game in a state if fear while wondering (or praying for some people) whether you’re going to be able to feed the kids next week.
Not only is this the perfect recipe for killing your Super Bowl fun, but now, no one wants to hang out with you while you alternately, scream at the television in agony. Remember, to keep your Super Bowl bets within your means. That way, you’ll be able to enjoy the big game whether you come out on top or not.
Top Three Mistakes Made When Betting On The 2017 Super Bowl
Previous Betting News
If you’re gearing up for the quickly approaching Super Bowl 51 showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots and you’re looking to formulate your betting plan on the big game, then you need to know that there are some timeless mistakes that you definitely want to void at all costs.
Thanks to the expert betting analysis that you’re about to get, you’re going to find out all about avoiding the top three mistakes that NFL betting odds enthusiasts make when betting on the Super Bowl. Let’s get started.
Top Three Mistakes Made When Betting On The 2017 Super Bowl
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
When: Sunday, February 5 at 6:30 PM ET Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas Spread: New England -3 Moneyline: Atlanta +140 at New England -160 / Game Total: 58
No. 3 Mistake
Polar-Opposite Props Bets
When it comes to Super Bowl props betting, you need to make sure your props picks are all leaning toward the same outcomes that you’re expecting. For example, if you like the Over and you’re expecting Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to burn the Patriots’ defense for over 300 passing yards, then you probably don’t want to go making props wagers for running backs Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman to top their respective rushing total props odds.
Maybe you believe the Patriots’ underrated defense will put the clamps on Ryan and company and you think the Under will play out. Then you’re surely not going to go making wagers on Ryan or superstar wide receiver Julio Jones to top their personal passing and receiving yards props odds. The bottom line is that you need to make sure your props bets aren’t polar-opposite picks that contradict one another.
Mistake No. 2 Halftime Bets/Chasing Lines
I know tons of football bettors that ‘chase’ lines or go all in on halftime betting opportunities – generally after losing some cash in the first half. Bettors will often start making ‘hopeful’ wagers that don’t offer as much value as they should – or worse, start making wagers that go against the very thought process they may have formed prior to the Super Bowl.
Case in point…let’s say you played the Over 50 total points or Over 22 first half points and the score is 13-3 at the half. Many bettors will then throw money on the Under or second half Under in the hopes of getting back some of the earnings they lost in the first half. Making a slew of thoughtless halftime bets and chasing lines is a definite no-no that all Super Bowl bettors need to avoid.
Mistake No. 1 – Betting Too Early or Too Late
The No. 1 mistake that many Super Bowl betting enthusiasts make is wagering on the Super Bowl either too early or too late. For instance, let’s say you plan on betting on the New England Patriots to win Super Bowl 51. Well, after opening as a favorite between 2.5 and 4 points, the Patriots are now solid 3-point favorites to beat Atlanta.
Now, if you plan on backing Tom Brady and the Patriots, then you likely want to get New England Patriots early as the odds for the Patriots almost assuredly won’t go any lower than the three points it currently sits at, barring an injury to a key starter that is.
Conversely, if you want to bet on Matt Ryan and the high-scoring Falcons to pull off the Super Bowl 51 upset, then you may want to wait a little bit longer to see if you can get another half-point or even a full point. If you already bet on the Falcons as a 2.5-point or 3-point underdog, then you could be losing the value that you’d have gained by waiting a bit longer.
As is the case almost every season, the Super Bowl betting line generally shows some form of movement and it has already done so with the Pats, so expect the line to move again, even if slightly, before Super Bowl 51 takes place. 97 percent of all Super Bowls bets don’t come in until about two days before the big game, so don’t rush your wager, but don’t wait too long either – it could also cost you valuable points.
