Thanksgiving Game: Commanders vs Cowboys Odds and Betting Analysis for Week 12

In the upcoming Thanksgiving Day clash, the Washington Commanders are set to face off against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 12 of the National Football League. The Commanders, currently struggling with a 4-7 record, recently suffered a defeat at home against the New York Giants. Positioned in third place, just ahead of the Giants, the Commanders are eager to turn their fortunes around. 

On the other side, the Dallas Cowboys, riding a wave of momentum, seek their third consecutive victory after a resounding win on the road against the Carolina Panthers. With a 7-3 record, the Cowboys sit in second place in the NFC East. Dallas comes into this game as massive home favorites. 

The Cowboys are -11 at home, and the total for this game is listed at 48.5. If you like the Commanders on the moneyline, they are currently listed at +425.

Check out NFL odds, plus an analysis of the game with a free pick for Thanksgiving’s Washington at Dallas action.

Thanksgiving Game: Commanders vs Cowboys Odds and Betting Prediction for this Week 12 Matchup | MyBookie NFL Regular Season Preview

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys | NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Games
ATS Odds: Cowboys -11
Money line Odds: Commanders +425 / Cowboys -600
Over/Under Odds: 48.5

Thursday, November 23rd, 2023 at 4:30 pm ET | CBS
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Turnovers Killing the Commanders in 2023

Leading the Commanders’ offense is quarterback Sam Howell, who, while not the primary issue for the team, has faced challenges. Howell boasts 18 passing touchdowns but has struggled with 12 interceptions and a staggering 51 sacks.  Howell has over 3,000 passing yards, and has been the signal caller for every snap of the Commanders season.

Terry McLaurin, the top receiver, has yet to produce elite numbers with only two touchdowns, while Jahan Dotson leads the team with four. Tight end Logan Thomas has 43 receptions in 10 games, and over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns as well, but has lost two fumbles on the season.

The run game is led by Brian Robinson Jr. but still has room for improvement. Robinson is averaging just 50.7 yards per game, despite recording five touchdowns.  The Commanders were without Antonio Gibson for the loss against the Giants. His status is in question for this game.

Defense Has to Get Better

The Washington defense has not been very good, and been even worse with the loss of both Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Sweat was traded to the Chicago Bears, while Young went to the 49ers. Sweat and Young had a combined 11 sacks before being traded. Now, defensive tackle Jonathan Allen leads the team with 5.5.

The Commanders have six interceptions on the season, but none have been returned for a touchdown. Washington also has forced 7 lost fumbles, with the lone fumble recovery for a touchdown coming from receiver Terry McLaurin.

What’s Next for Washington?

The upcoming matchup has the Commanders on the road against Dallas before returning home to face Miami on December 3rd, followed by a bye week. Post-bye, Washington has matchups against the Rams, Jets, 49ers, and a rematch with the Cowboys.

Dallas Looking to Stay Hot

For the Dallas Cowboys, their quest for a third consecutive win forms part of an impressive run, with four victories in their last five games. Over the past three wins, the Cowboys have scored a total of 125 points, solidifying their position as the second-highest scoring team in the league, averaging 30.2 points per game. 

Quarterback Dak Prescott, with over 2,600 passing yards and 19 touchdowns, continues to lead the charge.  Prescott has worked on limiting his turnovers this season. The signal caller has six interceptions on the season. 

CeeDee Lamb, surpassing 1,000 yards for the season with five touchdowns, contributes to Dallas’s robust passing game, averaging 255.6 yards per game. Lamb has5 touchdowns, while tight end Jake Ferguson has four and Brandin Cooks has three.

The running game is anchored by Tony Pollard. In the first season without Ezekiel Elliott in front of him, Pollard has over 585 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Dallas also uses Rico Dowdle, and he has carried it 55 times for 235 yards and a touchdown.

Sack City in Dallas

The Dallas Cowboys have 33 sacks on the season. They have Micah Parsons, who is known as one of the top defenders in the league with 10 on the season. DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong are coming strong, along with Sam Williams, those three combine for 13 between them.

DaRon Bland has been outstanding defending the pass. He has six interceptions on the season, and a league leading four of them have been returned for touchdowns. The Cowboys have five defensive touchdowns, as Leighton Vander Esch returned a fumble for a touchdown this season.

Dallas Looking Forward

Looking ahead, the Cowboys have a favorable home schedule, facing the Seahawks and Eagles in their next two matchups. After that, things do not get any easier. Dallas will play at the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, before hosting Detroit on December 30th. The Cowboys finish at Washington on January 7th.

Meeting 127

This is the 127th meeting between these two teams. The first time they met was in 1960, with Washington winning that game. The last time they met was in January, where the Commander smacked the Cowboys. Dallas leads the all time series 76-48-2. The longest winning streak in the long standing history belongs to the Cowboys, when they won 10 in a row. Dallas has the largest victory; scoring 56 in a win during the 2021 season.

Cowboys Enjoy Turkey Day Win

Given the Commanders’ current struggles, particularly in ball security, quarterback protection, and defensive prowess, the odds heavily favor the Cowboys. Dallas appears poised to establish themselves as a true NFC threat. The Cowboys move the ball via the pass and via the ground, and play really good defense.

The turnovers of Washington continue to haunt them, and the Cowboys get to Howell early and often. Dallas wins this game in a blowout. Bet the Dallas Cowboys -11. Our final score prediction for this game is the Cowboys 38-17 over the Commanders on Thursday! Enjoy the Thanksgiving Football and best of luck!

2023 NFL Thanksgiving Pick: ATS Dallas Cowboys -7 | Bet Commanders vs Cowboys
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Washington Commanders Team

4-7 | 3-3 Away

Dallas Cowboys Team

4-7 | 3-3 Away

2023 NFL Standings up to Week 12

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends

• Washington has five wins against the spread in 11 games this season.
• Washington’s games this year have eclipsed the over/under at a 54.5% rate (six times in 11 games with a set point total).
• Commanders away games this season average 40.8 total points, 7.7 fewer than this outing’s over/under (48.5).
• Washington has entered the game as an underdog seven times this season and won three of those games.
• The Commanders have not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +455.
• The Cowboys have covered the spread twice this season when favored by 11 points or more (in three chances).
• Dallas games this year have hit the over on six of 10 set point totals (60%).
• Dallas has a 1-0 record ATS in home games this year as 11-point favorites or more.
• This season at home the Cowboys and their opponents have averaged a total of 41.1 points per contest, 7.4 points less than the over/under for this contest.
• Dallas has won 87.5% of the games this season when it was favored on the moneyline (7-1).
• The Cowboys have a record of 2-1 in games they have played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -625 or shorter (66.7%).

The following NFL betting odds are based on MyBookie Sportsbook.

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