Early vs Late Super Bowl Bets LVIII: Analysis and Betting Tips to Win in the Big Game

Previous Betting News

Super Bowl LVII is still several days away, but it’s never too early to place a wager on the "Big Game." In fact, you could have bet on the winner of the Super Bowl before the start of the season. With that in mind, let’s get into the pre-season odds before we take a look at the benefits/disadvantages of betting early or late. 

The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs have both been to – and won – the Super Bowl during the last five years, but sportsbooks didn’t necessarily see them as the preseason favorites. Kansas City had the third-shortest odds at +1000 to win the Super Bowl, while the Eagles had the 12th-shortest odds at +2000. Given Philadelphia’s impressive season, it’s amazing to think the Baltimore Ravens (+2000), Denver Broncos (+1600), Los Angeles Rams (+1000), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+600) all had shorter NFL betting odds.

What’s the Best Super Bowl LVII Betting Strategy?

Betting Early Advantages/Disadvantages

Above is a major reason why it’s tough to bet incredibly early on the Super Bowl. The two betting favorites at the start of the season were the Buffalo Bills (+600) and Buccaneers. Obviously, you can win a lot more money if your bet hits, but that can be a pricey risk. Let’s assume you wagered $100 on each of the five betting favorites. That money’s all gone if the Eagles win.

Alternatively, if you do hit your bet at the start of the season, you’re in for a larger payday. A successful $100 wager on the Eagles back in August would pay out $2000 on Sunday. If you bet $100 on the Eagles on Tuesday, five days before the Super Bowl, you would only win $76.92. That’s because the Eagles are -130 favorites on the moneyline. They’re just -1.5 favorites on the spread.

If you’re betting the spread, however, it’s best to do so ASAP. Sportsbooks adjust their number throughout the week based on betting action, so "sharp" bettors try to take advantage of early lines. Philadelphia opened as -2.5 favorites, and the line has already gone down 1 point. Don’t be surprised if it ends up even money before kickoff. If that’s the case, that’s 2.5 points you’re missing out on for KC bets and an additional 2.5 points you’ll need for the Eagles to cover.

Betting Late Advantages/Disadvantages

You know the challenges of betting late, especially on the spread. However, there are some advantages. Injuries in practice aren’t as common as they are in games, but it’s not unheard of for a player to suffer a mid-week injury and miss the Super Bowl. You could bet $100 for KC to win on Monday and find out that Patrick Mahomes’ ankle isn’t good to go for Sunday. That, of course, would change how you feel about the bet.

Betting late also gives you added time to look at the game from every possible angle and conduct sufficient research to inform your decision. The over/under is a great late betting option also, especially if you plan to take the under. Recreational bettors typically favor the over and can drive the line up higher than it normally should be. Waiting until the last minute to bet the under might be a good idea.

Previous Betting News

It’s Super Bowl Week, which means if you’re like us, you’ve thinking about the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams. The real question is whether you should bet early or bet late. Check out four reasons you should make your bet early and four reasons to wait until February 13 to make your Super Bowl 56 bets. 

Early vs Late Betting Best Super Bowl Betting Strategy

Super Bowl LVI
Sunday, Feb. 13 | NBC / Peacock
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Super Bowl ATS Odds: LAR -4 ½ 
Super Bowl Moneyline Odds: LAR -190 / Cincinnati +155
Super Bowl Over/Under Total: 48 ½ 

Reasons to bet Super Bowl 56 early

Odds may change on the team you like
The line has gone up to Los Angeles Rams -4 ½. The Rams opened as -3 ½ favorite. The line has gone up a full point. So if you like the Rams, and you believe the line continues to drift, you had better bet early.

The same holds true if you like the Bengals. Cincinnati could end up falling to a -4 or -3 ½ underdog. The half a point could mean something in this game. So if you’ve made up your mind to back Cincinnati, why wait?

Injury info could change the odds
Rams tight-end Tyler Higbee may not play. So if you plan on backing the Cincinnati Bengals, why wait until word comes out that Higbee definitely won’t play?

If you wait too long, the spread line could fall from Bengals +4 ½ to Bengals +3. Consequently, if you’re a Rams’ bettor and Higbee does play, the odds could go up to Rams -5 instead of -4 ½.  

If you like a specific team, why wait?
If you’ve already chosen your team, why are you waiting to place your bet? If you’ve decided the Rams win the Super Bowl and cover, will anything talk you off the Rams?

If you think Joe Burrow will lead the Bengals to an upset victory, will anything talk you off Cincinnati? Probably not. So why are you waiting?

You can bet and get on with your life
Sometimes, we let the Super Bowl take over our lives. The Super Bowl is to football fans what the Kentucky Derby is to horse racing fans. It can consume us, which isn’t a good thing. Make your Super Bowl bet early, especially if you’re more of a casual player, and get on with your life. 

Reasons to bet Super 56 late

Pro handicappers often wait until Super Bowl day
If you’re a pro, or want to bet like a pro, then you should wait until the day of the Super Bowl. Pros wait for the public to have their say. Then they decide on the optimal bet.

Injury info could change the odds
Like with early bettors, late bettors also must consider injuries. The difference is that late bettors think of injuries in term of overlay or underlay odds.

So let’s say a late sports bettor leaning to backing the Los Angeles Rams sees that Higbee is injured. The bettor might decide to wait and see if Higbee will play. 

If LAR announces Higbee will play and the line moves just a half a point, the player might believe the Rams remain the team to back. But if the Rams announce Higbee will play and the line moves a whole point, the player might decide to lay off backing the Rams. 

You may not like a specific team and instead want to make the top value bet
Pros look for the best value bets. They don’t necessarily care so much about which team wins straight up.

In the case of Super Bowl 56, a pro player might set a personal line at Rams -3 ½. So if the Rams are at -3, the pro handicapper will be on the Rams because LAR is an overlay at -3. 

If the odds remain at Bengals +4 ½, the pro could jump on Cincinnati because at 4 ½, the Bengals are the overlay.  

You don’t have time to handicap the game until the weekend 
Often, there’s not enough time to handicap until the weekend. This is especially true for the Super Bowl where there are so many betting options our heads can’t help but spin. 

If you don’t have time to properly handicap Super Bowl 56, then don’t worry about handicapping until Saturday or even Sunday morning. The odds are the odds, as the saying goes. 

So handicap when you have time to concentrate. That could end up being the weekend. 

Previous Betting News

Many Super Bowl bettors make their wagers on the big game either too early or too late. Let’s take the Super Bowl 51 odds for example. After opening as a favorite between 2.5 and 4 points, the New England Patriots are currently solid 3-point favorites to beat Atlanta at almost every sportsbook there is. Before you bet on the NFL playoffs to cash in on the latest Super Bowl 51 promos. 

In Depth Analysis On The Early vs. Late Betting: What’s Best Super Bowl 51 Strategy?

Now, if you plan on backing the Patriots, then you likely want to get Tom Brady and company early as the odds for New England Patriots winning Super Bowl 51 almost assuredly won’t go any lower than the three points it currently sits at, barring an injury to a key starter. 

Conversely, if you’re thinking about betting on Matt Ryan and the high-scoring Falcons to pull off the upset, you may want to wait a while longer to make your wager in the hopes that the Super Bowl 51 betting line will move closer to 4 or even 4.5 points. If you already bet on the Falcons as a 2.5-point underdog, then you could be losing a valuable point or point and a half. 

As is the case almost every season, the Super Bowl betting line generally shows some form of movement whether big or small – and it has already done so with the Pats, so expect some more movement before Super Bowl 51 takes place. 

If you didn’t know, the vast majority of Super Bowl bets (97 percent) don’t come in until about 48 hours before the big game, so don’t rush your wager, but don’t wait too long either – it could also cost you valuable points. If you already got New England at 2.5 or 3 points, then you should know that by waiting too long you could lose that same 1-1.5 points that you’d gain of you were betting on Atlanta. 

Previous Betting News

We are now less than a week away from Super Bowl 55, with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers set to lock horns at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa this coming Sunday. This is arguably the most heavily betted game in professional sports, with a ton of money already riding on the outcome. There are some who have already cashed in, as some bettors wager on which teams will be in the Super Bowl prior to and during the regular season. That begs the question as to whether it’s a good idea to get your Super Bowl bets in early or last minute. We will look at both sides, but let’s begin with the early bets so you can get ready to make your bets against their Super Bowl odds.

Get your Super Bowl Bet in Early. Is it a Good Idea?

What are the Best Early Bets?

The simple answer here is that the straight up bet is what most early bettors get in on is the straight up bet. As soon as we know which two teams are going to be in the Super Bowl, we all have an opinion on who will win. The odds for the SU bet never really fluctuate that greatly, so this is one that is not potentially going to cost you a lot of money if they do shift.

There are also several prop bets that you can get in on early, such as the coin toss and the length of the national anthem. In short, any wagers whose odds are essentially set in stone are worth betting early as you can then forget about them and spend more time focusing on the wagers that are perhaps a little tougher to nail down.

Why You Might Consider Waiting

While a lot of bettors get in early and place all their bets days and weeks in advance of Super Bowl, there are others who wait until the last minute. This is especially true when it comes to the spread and the point total, as a shift in odds of even a ½ point can mean the difference between betting one way or another. If you are of the opinion that such shifts won’t impact how you think the game will go, then by all means get in on the early wagering.

Injuries are another thing that needs to be considered before betting early. Obviously, injuries to key players need to be paid attention to, but you need to look at them all. If either team has players listed as questionable in the days leading up to the game, and you believe that their inclusion could have an impact on the outcome, it might be better to wait to see what their game status is.

At the end of the day, you can end up second guessing yourself if you wait until the last minute to wager on the Super Bowl, which could well mean that you end up losing bets that you would have won had you just gone with your initial feeling and placed the wager early. There is no real right or wrong here, just what works best for you.