Noteworthy Details About the 2016-17 NFL Odds

Posted by Joe Solari on April 26, 2016 in

Over the next couple of weeks, maybe even months, the league will be dominated with news and articles analyzing and critiquing the soon-to-be-drafted rookies from the 2016 NFL draft and how they are likely to impact their respective teams. Obviously, we are likely to see a couple of changes in the already released early NFL odds, as soon as the rookies are drafted, but the reality of NFL betting is that rookies rarely impact their teams in big ways. Keeping that in mind, let’s check out some of the glaring and most noteworthy details about the 2016 NFL lines and odds so far. Duly note that the NFL odds below are based on the early regular season lines of the 2016 season, as was released by CG Technology.

Noteworthy Details About the 2016-17 NFL Odds



That being said, let’s note our way into the NFL betting boards, shall we?


  • The New England Patriots could find themselves in trouble between Week 1 and Week 4, owing to the fact that starting QB Tom Brady had his suspension reinstated earlier this week; something that could see him serve a four-match ban. Following the news about the reinstatement of Brady’s suspension, the NFL lines have seen a fury of movements in New England’s first four games of the season—at Arizona Cardinals, vs. Miami Dolphins, vs. Houston Texans and vs. Buffalo Bills—with some sportsbooks going as far as pulling off some of the matches off their boards, at least until there is a clear directive about the suspension.


  • The Green Bay Packers (12/1 to win Super Bowl) will begin their season with a favorable four-game stretch at home (including a home bye in Week 4). The most noteworthy games in this five-week stay in Wisconsin include the Week 3 clash against Detroit (where the Packers have been favored by a touchdown), a home game against the Giants in Week 5 after the Week 4 bye (where Green Bay has been favored by 8.5 points), an enticing clash against Dallas in Week 6 (Green Bay favored by 6 points), and a home clash against the Bears in Week 7 (Green Bay favored by 9 points). Given the way the Packers have been one of the most dominant teams in the nation, this bodes quite well for Aaron Rodgers and Co. to have a solid start on the year.


  • The Cleveland Browns are the biggest of all longshots in the Odds to win Super Bowl LI (200/1), sporting a price that is thrice as huge as that of the second-longest odds in the betting boards (60/1). In addition, the Browns are not favored Cleveland is not favored in any game in the upcoming NFL season. Can Robert Griffin III deliver at least one upset? Going by his pedigree, we certainly think one or two victories should be possible for Cleveland, bad as they are expected to be this season.


  • The San Francisco 49ers aren’t expected to do any better than they did last season and their strong underdog status is underlined by the fact that they have two of the largest spreads on the board in the regular season, giving up 11.5 points to Carolina in Week 2, and 14 points to Seattle in Week 3. Are the 49ers being overly undervalued? Can the NFL draft offer some boost for San Francisco? Only time can tell…


  • The Seattle Seahawks hype train is seemingly not just limited to their fans, but the Oddsmakers who are seemingly overvaluing their regular season worth. Data from the 2015-16 season indicates that Seattle only won just three home games by double digits last season (and that was when Marshawn Lynch was still around doing things in beast mode. With Lynch retired and the Seattle defense not playing that well at the start of the season, it looks like a big ask for the Seahawks to cover spreads such as -14 vs. San Francisco in Week 3, -10 vs. Atlanta in Week 6, -10 vs. Buffalo in Week 9, -9 vs. Philadelphia in Week 11, and -10 vs. Los Angeles in Week 15.


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  • Despite being favored in five regular season games and playing some of the softest divisional opponents on the season, Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons are valued at around 7 wins. No doubt, the Falcons need tons of improvements on the defensive end, but with one of the better QBs in the league and an explosive wide receiver in Julio Jones, Atlanta should surely be able to surpass the 7-point win mark, right?


  • The defending Super Bowl Champions, the Denver Broncos, have a big rebuild project in their offense, following the retirement of future Hall of Famer QB Peyton Manning and the offseason exit of backup QB Brock Osweiler. A drop-off is expected by many and the Oddsmakers seem to agree, having Denver priced at 20/1 in the Super Bowl 51 Odds, and the Broncos opening as underdogs in the early lines at Cincinnati (-3) in Week 3, at home against New England (-1) in Week 15, and at Kansas City (-1.5) in Week 16.


***Remember to check with us after the 2016 NFL draft to assess whether or not there will be changes in the above-mentioned (and many other) NFL odds***