Commanders Odds & Betting Analysis: Jayden Daniels as #1 QB

Another NFL starting quarterback battle is over as new Washington Commanders coach Dan Quinn has named No. 2 overall rookie Jayden Daniels as his guy for Week 1 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 3.5-point favorites on the NFL odds.

Frankly, no one really believes the Commanders were having a competition between Daniels and free-agent signing Marcus Mariota.

My Analysis

Washington could have gotten a ton of draft picks in compensation had it traded out of the No. 2 spot in this year’s draft as many teams were after Daniels but the Commanders stayed put – some NFL scouts actually liked Daniels better than No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams of Chicago.

Really, the only things that Daniels and the veteran Mariota have in common is that they both won the Heisman Trophy and were the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. Mariota has largely had a bust career, however.

Daniels had effectively operated as the Commanders’ starting QB throughout training camp, with Mariota – and Mariota has been dealing with a minor groin injury. In two preseason appearances so far, Daniels has been impressive, especially during Saturday night’s loss to the Dolphins. He played the Commanders’ first two drives versus Miami and completed 10 of 12 passes for 78 yards, while rushing twice for 13 yards.

The 23-year-old led Washington into scoring position on both of his two drives, which ended in field goal attempts. In Week 1 of the preseason against the Jets, Daniels scored a touchdown on a 3-yard keeper on his lone drive. Mariota did play in the preseason opener but not against the Dolphins with that injury.

Daniels will become the 11th quarterback selected by Washington in the common draft era (since 1967) to start a season opener for the franchise and only the second rookie to do so, after Robert Griffin III (2012). Daniels will also be the Commanders’ eighth straight different Week 1 quarterback, following:

Sam Howell (2023)
Carson Wentz (2022)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (2021)
Dwayne Haskins (2020)
Case Keenum (2019)
Alex Smith (2018)
Kirk Cousins (2017)

🔴📽️ Live: Coach Antonio Pierce addresses the media.
Coach Quinn: "He's ready and he's earned the right" pic.twitter.com/cx4PrP9EEB
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) August 19, 2024

“He went through the whole thing. He didn’t miss a beat,” Quinn said after making his decision Monday. “He hit the targets that we had put in front of him. We talked about the practices against the other teams, the games. He’s ready, and he’s earned the right to do that. I had high expectations for him coming in, but I would say he’s definitely surpassed even my expectations of the readiness, the command. “He’s just got that way about him.”

Quinn said at the start of training camp that the decisions made about Daniels’ playing time were not a secret but a journey. As Daniels went through camp, it became clear that him being named the starter was more an inevitability than a possible outcome. He flaunted many of the traits that convinced Washington to take him at No. 2, from his ball placement and accuracy to his work ethic that drives him to be the first player at the facility.

Jayden Daniels in the Last Season

Daniels threw for 3,812 yards and ran for 1,134 last season at LSU, racking up 50 total touchdowns en route to winning college football’s highest individual honor. He completed over 72% of his passes and threw just four interceptions. That sort of accuracy has been on display throughout training camp and the preseason. Quinn has said Daniels has a mix of “humility and swagger.”

“He naturally has a good feel of where to position the ball, whether it’s an in-breaking route, out-breaking route, a ball down the field,” said wideout Terry McLaurin. “A lot of the things, he just naturally has the ability to have a feel for the game, which is very unique for any quarterback, but let alone a rookie.”

The Commanders also tried their best this offseason to make what was around Daniels look a little better than what Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett had last year. That meant creating protection and a run game that’d take the pressure off him in the likely event that he’d wind up being the Commanders’ starter.

Coach Quinn:

“[GM] Adam [Peters] did a really good job on that,” Quinn said. “We were intentional and deliberate about Jayden even before it was him. Signed a center [Tyler Biadasz], [Sam] Cosmi was coming back, another in [Nick] Allegretti. That’s in place. Need a tight end in [Zach] Ertz, had a run game with Brian [Robinson Jr.] and adding [Austin] Ekeler. It was a good job by Adam to say we’re also going to put people around this person to make sure he’s able to start off on the right foot.”

Daniels will face another former Heisman Trophy winner in Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield, and the Bucs are defending NFC South champions. Washington will open the season on the road for the first time since 2019. The Commanders are looking to extend a two-game winning streak against the Buccaneers on the road.

NFL Week 1 Schedule

Thursday, Sep. 5, 8:20pm – Baltimore at Kansas City
Friday, Sep. 6, 8:15pm – Green Bay vs. Philadelphia (in São Paulo, Brazil)
Sunday, Sep. 8, 1:00pm – Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Arizona at Buffalo
Tennessee at Chicago
New England at Cincinnati
Houston at Indianapolis
Jacksonville at Miami
Carolina at New Orleans
Minnesota at NY Giants
Las Vegas at LA Chargers – 4:05pm
Denver at Seattle – 4:05pm
Dallas at Cleveland – 4:05pm
Washington at Tampa Bay – 4:05pm
LA Rams at Detroit – 8:20pm
Monday, Sep. 9, 8:15pm – NY Jets at San Francisco

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Commanders Odds & Betting Analysis: QB Jayden Daniels vs Jets

The NFL preseason kicked off last Thursday with the Hall of Fame Game, but neither the Bears nor Texans played any starters, which means we didn’t get our first look at Chicago quarterback and No. 1 overall rookie Caleb Williams.

When the Washington Commanders open their preseason on Saturday at the New York Jets, we will see the pro debut of Commanders QB and No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels. Washington is a 3-point favorite on the NFL odds.

My Analysis

In theory, Daniels is competing with another former No. 2 overall pick in Marcus Mariota for the starting job, but there’s no way the former LSU star and 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Daniels isn’t the guy for Week 1 of the regular season under first-year Commanders coach Dan Quinn.

Daniels has been the first quarterback during the full-team sessions for the past several practices. But veteran Marcus Mariota has taken reps with starters in other drills during that time.

Quinn hasn’t said who will start against the Jets or how long Daniels will play. Earlier in camp, Mariota had typically been the first quarterback during the 11-on-11 sessions.

Jayden Daniels Comparison

Although Daniels admitted he still has a way to go before being a starter, he has shown gradual progress in commanding the huddle, getting comfortable in the offense and using his skill set.

Daniels continues to get the ball out quickly. New Washington tight end Zach Ertz has compared Daniels to former Colts QB Andrew Luck.

He was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft and would play seven NFL seasons with Indianapolis before surprisingly retiring in 2019 at age 29.

“I played with Andrew Luck in college, obviously,” Ertz said. “Still, to this day, probably the best quarterback I ever played with. But Andrew almost had a gravitational pull to him. Guys wanted to be around him. He was never bigger than the team. He was always just one of the guys. Furthermore, he was always building people up; he was a culture setter. A lot of quarterbacks, they win the Heisman; they get drafted No. 2 overall; that’s not how it is. They’re almost different as a quarterback, but that couldn’t be further from the truth with Jayden. Jayden is a guy that brings people together.”

Washington is looking for some stability at the quarterback position after using 13 different starting quarterbacks since 2017. In fact, in 2023 Sam Howell became the first Washington starting quarterback to start every game since Kirk Cousins in 2017.

Daniels with LSU

Last year at LSU, Daniels threw for 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns and four interceptions, while rushing for 1,134 yards and 10 scores in 12 games.

Jeff Driskel and undrafted rookie Sam Hartman are also on the Washington roster, so any of them could also get playing time Saturday.

They will face a Jets defense that was one of the NFL’s best last year, with the No. 3 DVOA.

They gave up the second-fewest passing yards per game (168.3), led by Sauce Gardner, with the second-best Pro Football Focus coverage grade (90.8) among cornerbacks.

Although we doubt the Jets defensive starters play much if at all on Saturday.

What about the Jets?

On the other side of the field, the Jets’ preseason quarterback situation is unknown. Head coach Robert Saleh said quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off a season-ending Achilles injury, is unlikely to play during the preseason.

Rodgers responded, saying that was “news to him.” The 40-year-old Rodgers, nearly 11 months removed from Achilles surgery, hasn’t missed a single rep in camp. The Jets are counting on Rodgers to galvanize what they believe is a championship-caliber roster.

They were lost without Rodgers last season, as the offense produced a league-low 18 touchdowns.

Over the weekend, but the Jets finally got their starting offensive line on the field at the same time — a rare circumstance for this team. Right tackle Morgan Moses, who underwent pectoral surgery after the season, made his debut and took most of the starting reps.

A year ago, the starting five wasn’t together until Week 1. Veteran Tyrod Taylor and undrafted Andrew Peasley likely will take most of the QB snaps on Saturday.

The team took FSU’s Jordan Travis in the fifth round of this year’s draft, but he’s working his way back from a serious injury.