NFL Week 11 Odds: New England Patriots at Atlanta Betting Analysis

The scorching New England Patriots look for their fifth straight on Thursday night when they travel to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta to take on the struggling Falcons. New England has become a wise guy choice to win the Super Bowl. Can Mac Jones and the Pats win another? Or will Matt Ryan and the ATL get back on track? Check out NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for New England versus Atlanta. 

NFL Betting Preview for New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

NFL Week 11 Betting | New England at Atlanta Game Odds & Info

• When: Thursday, Nov. 18 at 8:20 pm ET
• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA 
• TV / Streaming: FOX / NFL Net 
• ATS Odds: New England -6 ½   
• Moneyline Odds: New England -290 / Atlanta +240
• Over/Under Odds: 47 ½  

Why bet on New England versus Atlanta?

The Patriots are on a 4-game winning streak. Not only has the Pats won 4 straight on the moneyline, but they’ve also won 4 straight against the spread. No win was as impressive as in NFL Week 10 when New England dominated the Cleveland Browns 45-7 as a -2 ½ home favorite. The Pats beat the Browns in every phase of the game.  

New England Patriots Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 356.2

• Passing Yards: 241.7

• Rushing Yards: 114.5

• Points Scored: 27.5

• Turnovers: 14

New England Patriots Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 328.0

• Passing Yards: 220.1

• Rushing Yards: 107.9

• Points Scored: 17.7

• Takeaways: 17

Why bet on Atlanta versus New England?

Before losing to Dallas on Nov. 14, Atlanta had gone 3-1 against the spread in their previous 4 games. The Falcons offense had scored at least 27 points in all 3 wins. Matt Ryan had a terrible game against the Cowboys, completing just 42.9% of his passes. The last time Matty Ice played so badly, a loss to Washington> on Oct. 3, he bounced back with a 73.3% completion percentage when leading the Falcons to a 27-20 win against the Jets. 

Atlanta Falcons Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 324.2

• Passing Yards: 241.3

• Rushing Yards: 82.9

• Points Scored: 19.8

• Turnovers: 13

Atlanta Falcons Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 368.3

• Passing Yards: 246.2

• Rushing Yards: 122.1

• Points Scored: 29.2

• Takeaways: 8

Patriots at Falcons Relevant Trends

• Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games
• New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November
• Over is 5-1 in the Patriots’ last 6 games
• Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss
• Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 11
• Under is 5-1 in the Falcons last 6 games in Week 11

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons Final Betting Prediction

Ryan never plays two terrible games in a row. But although Atlanta’s quarterback could play great on Sunday, it may not be enough.

The New England Patriots are good in every phase of the game. The Pats average 27.5 points per and the defense allows just 17.7 points each game.

One of the reasons the Patriots have so easily beaten teams is because Mac Jones has hit his stride. The rookie quarterback is completing 69% of his passes. Jones’ TD to INT ratio in New England’s last 3 games is 6-to-1. 

Atlanta’s defense is horrendous. The Falcons do nothing well on D, which means Josh McDaniel will come up with a game plan that exploits the ATL through the air and on the ground. Unless Mac Jones plays unlike he has for most of this season, New England wins and covers.  

NFL Week 11 Pick: New England Patriots

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