NFL Week 9 Odds: Packers at Chiefs Betting Analysis & Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs get to play the Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers on the bench due to failing a COVID exam. The news has boosted KC to -7 ½ favoritism. Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs show why so many continue to believe they’re the best team in the AFC? Or will the Packers overcome the loss of Rodgers and continue beating their favored opponents? Keep reading for NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for Green Bay at Kansas City.

NFL Betting Preview for Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Week 9 Betting | Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Game Odds & Info

When: Sunday, Nov. 7 at 4:25 pm ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV / Streaming: FOX / Fox Sports
ATS Odds: Kansas City -7 ½
Moneyline Odds: Green Bay +275 / Kansas City -345
Over/Under Odds: 48

Why bet on Green Bay versus Kansas City?

Rodgers tested positive for COVID. So he can’t play on Sunday. But although Green Bay will be without one of the most important players in franchise history, they aren’t without a shot. Backup Jordan Love has been groomed to take over when AR retires. Love has the skills to run Matt LaFleur’s offense. Not only that, but Davante Adams returns and Aaron Jones and the rushing attack is dominating.

Green Bay Packers Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 337.5

Passing Yards: 229.4

Rushing Yards: 108.1

Points Scored: 24.0

Turnovers: 6

Green Bay Packers Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 331.8

Passing Yards: 216.8

Rushing Yards: 115.0

Points Scored: 20.9

Takeaways: 13

Why bet on Kansas City versus Green Bay?

In Monday night’s 20-17 victory over the New York Giants, we saw signs of the Chiefs being the old Chiefs. The defense stepped it up when holding Daniel Jones and the Giants to just 17 points. The offense played a smart game, not pushing the envelope unless required, and rushing for 107 yards. If KC plays a similar game, they can slowly but surely build a lead against the Packers.

Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 412.9

Passing Yards: 296.1

Rushing Yards: 116.8

Points Scored: 26.0

Turnovers: 19

Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 391.5

Passing Yards: 269.8

Rushing Yards: 121.8

Points Scored: 27.5

Takeaways: 8

Packers at Chiefs Relevant Trends

Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7
Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on the road
Under is 5-0 in the Packers last 5
Chiefs are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games on grass
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS versus a team with a winning record
Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games following a straight up win

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs Final Betting Prediction

Not having Rodgers is a big deal, but the odds make KC an underlay. The Chiefs aren’t a very good team.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown 10 interceptions this season. He threw a pick six against the Giants that got called back due to an offside penalty. If not for the offsides, the Giants might have beaten the Chiefs in Week 8.

Not only that, but KC is 1-3 ATS in their last 4. The Chiefs have turned the ball over 19 times. They’ve gotten 8 takeaways.

Don’t expect those trends to change. Jordan Love isn’t a bad quarterback and Matt LaFleur will simplify the offense to ensure his QB stays out of trouble. Not only that, but the Chiefs yield 121.8 rushing yards per contest.

So if the safeties cheat up to prevent the rush, Love will throw passes to Adams, who can beat any defensive back on KC’s roster. Green Bay has a shot win this straight up. If you want to play it safe, take the points.

NFL Week 9 Pick: Green Bay Packers

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