NFL Playoffs Betting Odds and Picks

Since 2020, NFL fans and bettors alike have a great opportunity, given the expanded playoff format. For the past two seasons, some 14 teams qualified for the postseason, with 12 participating on Wild Card Weekend. Just two teams, AFC regular season titleholder Kansas City and NFC winner Philadelphia will sit this weekend out and await their opponent.

On the menu this weekend are two games Saturday, three on Sunday, and a single game to close out the festivities Monday night. Three of the games are relatively close in the markets with a three-point or less spread; one game is at 6.5, while two games have spreads over 10 points at the present time.

The formula for postseason success isn’t always as simple as a home-field advantage or regular season results; there can often be some intangibles in play the propel some squads while hampering others. In this NFL Playoffs Betting piece, we will take a look at two games, one game with a close spread and another with a larger projected differential.

2024 Wild Card Weekend Betting Opportunities for the Rapidly Approaching Postseason Games | MyBookie Playoff Betting Preview

2023 NFL Season | 104th season of the National Football League
Sunday, January 13 – Sunday, February 11, 2024

Jags and Bolts

Coming off a 2021 season that saw them go 3-14 and finish dead last in the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars, winners of just one game in 2020, appear in the playoffs as divisional winners. By virtue of that, they’ll get a home game, facing off with the LA Chargers.

The Jags last made the playoffs in 2017, but the person in its organization with the most playoff experience is coach Doug Pederson, who led Philadelphia to the Super Bowl title that same year. Pederson is in his first year with Jacksonville but has built on his reputation as a develop of quarterbacks, molding fellow top pick Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguar offense to new heights.

Expect there to be a ton of hype and energy surrounding the game in Jacksonville. Jaguars are 4-1 against the number in their last 5, going 5-0 SU in the process. While their overall record (9-7) isn’t great, there are few teams entering the playoffs with more momentum.

Chargers are no slouch, winning four of their last 5 SU and going 3-1-1 ATS. In a spot like this, we give the edge to Jacksonville because of the home field as well as the coaching.

Bills and Phins

Many would dispute the fact that the Bills are the NFL’s team of destiny following the on-field cardiac arrest of defensive back Damar Hamlin in Week 17. The entire league is behind Buffalo now, and it seems like when the Bills took the field following Hamlin’s situation, a home contest versus a New England squad that had to win to get in, only one team was meant to win the game.

Neither team is particularly solid against the spread. Coaching edge here coach to Sean McDermott of Buffalo over Miami’s first-year leader Mike McDaniel. Miami, who started the season looking like a team poised for a deep playoff run, has been felled by injuries, most notably its quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is not expected to be under center Sunday.

This season, Bills have been favored by a touchdown or more on 11 occasions and are 4-6-1 in those games. Miami, on the other hand, have been road underdogs 5 times and are 3-2 ATS in those games.

This is a tough spot since it is almost a certainty, barring unforeseen circumstances, that the Bills advance. While 10.5 is a ton of points to lay, without Tua and in cold weather facing a crowd that will be likely going bananas, we feel as those the Bills are the correct side here.

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Previous Betting News

Wild Card Round Betting Predictions, Best Picks to Wager On | NFL Playoffs Odds

2023 NFL Wild Card matchups are set. The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs earned byes in the NFC and AFC respectively. Everybody else must play this weekend. On Saturday, Seattle takes on San Francisco and the Chargers battle the Jaguars before four games happen on Sunday. Check out odds, analysis, and free NFL Playoffs Betting picks for this weekend’s NFL Wild Card matchups.

2023 NFL Wild Card

Saturday, Jan. 14 – Sunday, Jan. 15

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers -10 | Saturday, Jan. 14

The Seahawks barely got by the Rams in their final regular season game. Not only that, but to make it to the playoffs, Seattle had to hope that Detroit could upset Green Bay.

The Lions did exactly that, which is why the Seahawks get to head to San Francisco on Saturday. But the 49ers covered in both games this season. Can SF beat and cover versus a division rival for a third straight time? They can and they will.

NFL Wild Card Pick: San Francisco 49ers -10

Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars | Saturday, Jan. 14

The Jags did not look good against a fired up Tennessee team in their final game of the season. Jacksonville should play better against the Chargers.

The problem is that LAC is rolling. If we throw out the week 18 game, one that the Bolts didn’t require to win, the Chargers have won 4 straight. Even versus Denver, they’ve covered. LAC is just better than Jacksonville.

NFL Wild Card Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -1.5

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills -10.5 | Sunday, Jan. 15

Miami struggled to beat the Jets. Also, they may have to play this with either Skylar Thompson or Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. Tua could be out again due to another concussion that he suffered a few weeks ago.

Still, even with Thompson or Bridgewater at QB, the Fins are tough not to back at plus 10. Miami beat Buffalo straight up in one game and covered in the other. The Bills aren’t a great covering team, going 8-7-1 ATS during the season.

NFL Wild Card Pick: Miami Dolphins +10.5

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings -3 | Sunday, Jan. 15

These two played a few weeks ago. The Giants almost pulled off the road win. It took a 61-yard field goal as time expired for the Vikings to beat NYG.

A similar games should happen on Sunday. There’s a great chance this pushes. So taking the 3 points, just in case the Giants keep this to within a point or 2, is the way to go.

NFL Wild Card Pick: New York Giants +3

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 | Sunday, Jan. 15

Baltimore played a good game against the Bengals in week 18. Baltimore starter Anthony Brown ran the offense well and the defense held the Bengals to just 27 points.

The Ravens should be healthier. There’s no telling if Lamar plays. But Tyler Huntley, Gus Edwards, and corner Marcus Peters should all step onto the field. Cincinnati should win but this could be a field goal, maybe, a 6-point game. The hook makes all the difference.

NFL Wild Card Pick: Baltimore Ravens +6.5

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, Jan. 15

The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys in week 1. The two teams aren’t much different than they were then.

The problem with backing Tampa is leaning on a team that doesn’t always show up. The problem with backing Dallas is that, sometimes, the coaches call a bad game. Washington blitzed the Cowboys in week 18.

Sam Howell, a rookie QB, went 11-of-19 for 169 yards, threw a pick, and a TD. Brady could light up the Boys’ secondary. Consider the moneyline. Take the points for sure.

NFL Wild Card Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3

Previous Betting News

Wild Card Round Picture After the Week 18 Games | NFL Playoffs Betting Analysis

The NFL regular season is now over, which means that we can focus on the playoffs starting today. It was a wild season that delivered a large number of surprises, not the least of which was the Jacksonville Jaguars going on a late run that led them to the postseason. Surprises aside, we have some definite favorites in either conference, but as we have seen in the past, surprises can happen. A #6 or #7 seed can get hot and go on an unexpected run, while a top seed can fall at the first hurdle. All that aside, let’s look at all the matchups, with our NFL Playoff betting picks coming in later posts.

AFC

After a weird ending to the season, the AFC seedings are set, with the Kansas City Chiefs in at #1. The Bills and Bengals may feel a little slighted at how things played out after their game was suspended, but with that coming so late in the season, the NFL was pretty limited in what they could do to make things right.

The Bills got the #2 seed after putting together a 13-3 season, and they will open things up in the Wild Card against the Miami Dolphins, who snuck in courtesy on a 9-6 win over the New York Jets on the final week of the season.

The Cincinnati Bengals are in at the #3 spot and will host a very familiar dance partner, with the Baltimore Ravens heading to town. The Bengals actually beat the slumping Ravens in the final game of the regular season and will feel good about a rematch.

Finally, it will be the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the LA Chargers after beating Tennessee to win the AFC South. The Jaguars are hot right now and playing with house money, but this will be a tough opponent to get past.

NFC

After a bit of a stumble with Jalen Hurts on the sidelines, The Philadelphia Eagles ended the season at 14-3, which was good enough to get them the #1 seed. That extra week of is a real bonus, as it will give Hurts another week to rehab his shoulder and get ready for the challenges ahead.

No team is heading into the playoffs hotter than the #2 seeded San Francisco 49ers. Despite losing their starting QB and their backup, they went on a 10-game win streak, with 3rd stringer Brock Purdy playing at a high level. They will open up at home against the Seattle Seahawks.

The Minnesota Vikings flew under the radar a little, picking up 13 wins on the season, which was goof enough to get them into the #3 seed, which means a home game in the Wild Card Round. The Vikings will host the New York Giants, who went off the boil a little after a fast start to the season.

The other division winner, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, actually ended the regular season with a losing record, but that division win means they get to open the playoffs on home field. The bad news is that they will be up against the Dallas Cowboys, a team that a lot of people are looking at as a dark horse to win the conference and go to the Super Bowl.

Previous Betting News

Who’s Going to Win It All? | Updated Super Bowl LVII Betting Lines After Regular Season Ended

Given what went down with Damar Hamlin in the Bills/Bengals game, which was ultimately suspended, the playoffs look a little different this year. Or they might if the AFC Conference Championship Game needs to be played at a neutral venue. We can worry about all of that later, as the focus right now is on the Wild Card Round, which is set to go this coming weekend. Yes, the playoffs are upon us, and the Super Bowl Odds are set heading into the opening week of the postseason. Let’s take a closer look at those odds to see if we can break it all down.

Favorites

Given that they nabbed the #1 seed in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs have become the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Home field advantage helps, unless of course they run into the Bills in the Conference Championship Game, which would then be on a neutral field. The Chiefs are in at +340 and closely followed by the Bills at +400. Over in the NFC, it is the Philadelphia Eagles at +620 who are favored to come out of that conference and head to the Super Bowl. They are closely followed by the San Francisco 49ers at odds of +620, too. The 49ers are as hot as it gets, coming into the playoffs on a 10-game win streak that has a lot of bettors falling on their side.

Smart Picks

In the AFC, all signs would seem to point to the Bills and Chiefs locking horns in the AFC Conference Championship Game. It seems to be the matchup that most people want, but is that the smart pick? The Bills should have no problem getting out of the Wild Card, but the Cincinnati Bengals are looming large. They too are coming in hot and have proven to be a problem for the Chiefs, as well as being up on the Bills before that game was suspended. The Bengals are at +800 and are a very sexy pick right now.

With Jalen Hurts in the lineup, the Philadelphia Eagles look to be unstoppable, but you do have to wonder if there are going to be lingering issues with his shoulder injury. There are also concerns about the 49ers heading into the playoffs with a 3rd string QB under center. Yes, Brock Purdy has looked great, but will the occasion be too big for him? Given those issues, are either one of these teams the smart pick?

Longshots

I don’t think the Bengals can really be considered an AFC longshot, so who does fit that category? The longest shot is the Seattle Seahawks at +7500. As for a live longshot, can the Baltimore Ravens (+3700) get back to business with Lamar Jackson back in the lineup, or will Justin Herbert and the Chargers (+2200) get hot?

In the NFC, I am still looking at the Dallas Cowboys, who are in at +1250. They have a very winnable trip to Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Round, which could set them on a positive run. I chose the Cowboys to go to the Super Bowl in a previous article, so I am taking them as my longshot pick in the NFC.