What are the Odds of Picking a Perfect March Madness Bracket?

Previous Betting News

If you bet regularly, you can probably quite easily remember your best win streak. Maybe it was a 5-game run, or perhaps even 10 or more, but do you ever remember a time where you reeled off 63 straight winning picks?

I’m guessing that the answer to that question is a resounding “NO,” as upsets and longshot wins are very much the nature of sports. With all of that in mind, you might well wonder if anyone has indeed made that type of winning run, specifically in their March Madness Bracket. Again, the answer there would also be no. The tournament is right around the corner, so let’s take a closer look at the stats to consider in your NCAAB betting plans.

The Best Bracket Performances

To the best of our knowledge, no one has ever submitted a bracket and ended up with a perfect set of picks. If you know anything about March Madness, it’s that you should probably expect the unexpected. Every year, a surprise team or two shows up and serves as a bracket buster, with the majority of brackets very often busted in the opening round of the tournament.

There have been some good runs over the years, but not too many brackets that could be considered a close call in terms of perfection. In 2017, we saw a player win 39 games before having their bracket busted, with all the picks through to the Sweet 16 made correctly. In 2019, that record was topped when a player made it to 49 straight wins before crapping out on #50.

When you consider that anywhere from 60-100 million brackets are posted every year, you quickly see that the idea of a perfect bracket seems patently ridiculous.

What are the Actual Odds of a Perfect Bracket?

This is where things get a little interesting, with the final number pretty much depending on the knowledge of the player making the picks. Even if you don’t follow college basketball, there seems to be a desire to get in on the fun and submit a bracket. The people that play for fun might just pick based on seeding or making lucky guesses. For those types of players, the odds of a perfect bracket are at 1 in 9.2 quintillion, which basically means no chance at all.

Things get a little better when you look at players who study the game and are very good at making picks on college basketball. Even then, the odds of making a perfect bracket sit at 1 in 120.2 billion, so still not great odds.

The reality is that picking 63 straight winners is about as impossible as it sounds. There are simply too many upsets in a tournament, and so many factors that go into the outcome of each game, that getting to that magic number just seems completely impossible. Still, that doesn’t mean you should throw your hands in the air and skip making a bracket entirely. This tournament is a great leveler, so you might just make a great run and win your tournament even if you are guessing. The truth is that you can’t win if you don’t play, so fill out that bracket and have some fun when March Madness rolls around.

2024 March Madness Schedule

Previous Betting News

We are now fewer than two weeks away from Selection Sunday and all the college basketball betting action that the Match Madness will give us. The age-old question will likely be asked hundreds of times over that four-day period as fans fill out their brackets for office pools across the country: What if I pick the perfect bracket?

Now, selecting the perfect bracket is what we all aspire to as the rewards for a validated perfect bracket will likely bring prizes in terms of cash, prizes, and most certainly, fame. That said, the next person to do it will also be the first person to accomplish the feat, as ESPN and Yahoo Sports have both stated in recent years that they have never seen a valid perfect bracket in their very popular tournament challenges.

What are the Odds of Picking a Perfect March Madness Bracket?

What are the Actual Odds?

A quick google search reveals that the college basketball odds of filling out a perfect bracket are just 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Now, I have never even heard of that number so here is what it actually looks like: 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. Most of the time, the brackets are knocked from perfection on day two. According to an article released by NPR, the longest streak was in 2019 when a madness participant picked the first 49 games of the event correctly.

Stuff Happens

There has now never been an instance of a certain lower seed winning in the first round. Thanks to UMBC and the rules of inevitability, you can no longer simply assume that even a #1 seed will waltz into the round of 32. Now, the probability of a Virginia-type loss happening again is of course, very slim, but never zero.

Just last season Saint Peters, a fifteen seed, took down Kentucky in the first round of the dance. That Wildcats group from last season boasted the national player of the year, a player that scored nearly 2,400 points during his career, senior leadership, a first-round NBA draft selection and a player that could be the Big East Player of the Year this season. Of course, the Peacocks didn’t stop there as they went on to defeat Murray State Racers and Purdue before falling to North Carolina. So even if you faded that Kentucky group, it’s unlikely you carried Saint Peters to the elite eight.

Creating a Successful Bracket

The best thing to do when trying to create the perfect bracket is to forget about it. It is unlikely to ever happen though again, never zero. One successful strategy is to simply play the odds. A quick search will provide you with records of each seed matchup along with winning percentages all-time.

With this data, you then work in some underdogs you like in the first round or two to pull some upsets. What you always need to remember is that those first and second-round games are not big point scorers for you in the overall standings.

Traditionally the cream of the season ultimately rises to the top so have fun with the first weekend, then concentrate on the high power six teams that you like. Look for teams that protect the ball, shoot the triple, and don’t just run, run, run. While there have been successful uptempo teams in the past, it’s easier to slow a team down than it is to speed one up.

Previous Betting News

Picking every matchup correctly in a March Madness bracket happens every year, but the odds are prohibitive. According to mathematicians in the past, the odds of picking a perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. That’s one in about 9.2 quintillion. Duke mathematics professor Jonathan Mattingly, before the 2018 March Madness, pointed out that no 16-seed had ever beaten a 1-seed, and so there were four guaranteed wins.

He also adjusted probability on the basis of seeding and argued that the odds were really 1 in 2.4 trillion. However, Maryland-Baltimore County ended that trend last year, beating 1-seed Virginia in the first round. Other mathematicians have weighed in, such as Jay Bergen from DePaul University, who argued that the odds are “just” 1 in 128 billion. Either way, a perfect bracket is just a March Madness betting dream for most of us.

Odds of Picking a Perfect 2019 March Madness Bracket

Now that the calendar is about to turn to March, it’s once again time to start considering the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, called “March Madness” because of the chaos that a single-elimination event brings to the title hopes of many teams that have been contenders all season long, only to have their hopes vanquished by a mid-major team. When contenders do square off with one another, the high drama often brings outcomes that basketball aficionados talk about for years to come.

One of the most popular ways to engage with NCAAB betting is the annual practice of filling out a bracket for the tournament. Some people spend a lot of time researching the 68 teams in the bracket before they fill out their picks, while others pick on the basis of mascots they like and team uniform colors that they find aesthetically pleasing. You might do a ton of research and find yourself behind someone who went with mascots in the bracket point totals.

That can be frustrating, but that’s just part of the way March Madness rolls. After all, Loyola-Chicago went all the way to the Final Four last year and hung with Michigan for a while in the national semifinal. There was a year when Syracuse came in as a 10-seed and rolled to the Final Four as well. Schools like Florida Gulf Coast, Virginia Commonwealth and George Mason have all made their mark with Cinderella stories.

So how can you beat the curve?

First, pay attention to the strength of schedule for teams entering the tournament. If you see a 6-seed from a Power 5 conference that played a bunch of cupcakes in non-conference games but then struggled to finish in the middle of the conference standings, that’s a 6-seed that is ripe for an upset. Or perhaps a mid-major team that did much the same thing (yes, Houston, we’re talking to you right now). Even a national contender, like Gonzaga or Nevada, who rolled through a tough non-conference schedule but have had a parade of easy wins in conference play, may not be ready for the challenges that await after the first round of the tournament and could fall early.

Second, look at the numbers surrounding guard play. What is your team’s average in terms of turnovers per game? How many assists do the guards dish out per game? Ball security is a big deal, and mid-majors can exploit teams from larger conferences when their guards are inferior. We’ve seen this happen to Purdue, for example, time and time again, although their guards are playing better this year.

Paying attention to factors like these may not get you the perfect bracket. After all, Cinderella has her day every year, and she may come calling for one of your top picks. If you do the right amount of research, and the breaks go your way, you can end up winning your pool, even if your bracket is far from perfect.

Previous Betting News

If you’re fired up for the quickly approaching 2018 March Madness tournament and you’re looking to gather as much expert information as possible for your NCAAB betting strategy, then you’ve come to the right place. Better yet, if you’re looking to fill out the perfect March Madness bracket and you’d like to know what your chances are of doing just that, then boy, have I got some sobering statistics for you.

What are the Odds of Picking a Perfect 2018 March Madness Bracket?

• Season: 2017–18
• Begins: March 13th
• Ends: April 2nd
• Teams: 68
• TV: CBS, TBS, TNT
• Finals Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas

A little bit of History

According to the official NCAA web site, last year, one bracket remained perfect through 39 games to open the tournament. In 2014, Brad Binder went 36-for-36 to start the tournament. In 2015 one person in the ESPN online bracket game picked the first 34 games correctly, according to a story by ESPN senior writer Darren Rovell.

The current NCAA tournament format has existed since 1985 — and with somewhere between an estimated 60 million to 100 million brackets filled out every year, it’s possible that someone, somewhere has done better than 39 straight games. Still, you should know that the odds of picking a perfect bracket in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament are so small, in fact, that many mathematicians differ on the actual estimation of the odds.

Some believe it’s as low as 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (or 1 in 9.2 quintillions for those who skipped the last 18 digits), while others, including Jeff Bergen, a professor at DePaul, think it’s as “high” as 1 in 128 billion. Either way, picking all 63 games (excluding the First Four games) correctly is next to impossible.

A Really Long-Shot

I’ve come up with a list of odds of some other things happening to you before you fill out a perfect bracket.

Odds of Being Struck By Lightning

• 1 in 700,000

The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000. The odds of being struck in your lifetime is 1 in 3,000. Lightning can kill people (3,696 deaths were recorded in the U.S. between 1959 and 2003) or cause cardiac arrest.

Odds of winning the Powerball

• one in 292 million

Getting hit by lightning is almost 4 times more likely than winning the lottery. The chances of being fatally struck are 1 in 10 million. You’re also 45 times more likely to die from flesh-eating bacteria than securing the jackpot. The odds are 1 in 1 million.

Odds of being struck by lightning twice

• 1 in 9 million

Your odds of being struck by lightning twice in your lifetime are 1 in 9 million, which, ironically, is still a higher chance than winning the Powerball.

Odds of making a half-court shot at a halftime competition

• 1 in 50

We can’t all be Steph Curry, (Well, I kinda shoot like him) but every basketball fan dreams of being called onto the floor for a shot at nailing the now, infamous half-court shot.

Odds of finding a four-leaf clover

• 1 in 10,000

The ultimate sign of luck. Find one of these and your odds of picking a perfect bracket probably go up at least a little bit. (Source: University of Sydney mathematics professor Clio Cresswell).

Odds of bowling a perfect game

• 1 in 11,500

The odds of an adult male who isn’t a professional bowling a 300 game are 1 in 11,500. If you’re a pro, those odds increase to 1 in 460. And if you have the bumpers up, the odds are even higher. (Source: Gazette Extra).

Odds of making a Double Eagle

• 1 in 1,000,000

A hole-in-one is a challenge in itself, but a double eagle in golf is even more difficult. A Double eagle is an ace on a Par 4 or two strokes on a Par 5. Odds of playing a hole that well has been stated as high as six million to one. But, in a 2004 interview in Golf World, Dean Knuth, the inventor of the United States Golf Association’s slope rating system, said the figure was closer to one in a million.

Odds of becoming president

• 1 in 10,000,000

The odds of becoming President used to be 1 in 10,000,000, but as we’ve all come to find out if Donald Trump can win the presidency, there’s literally hope for anyone – or maybe you haven’t seen his latest ill-conceived Tweet!