Carabao Cup Odds & Round of 16 Expert Analysis

With so many games in a season, teams need to prioritize their fixtures accordingly.

The top teams in England tend to have their attention of winning the league first, followed by the European trophies and the FA Cup.

My Carabao Cup Betting Analysis

The Carabao Cup, or the English League Cup, as it used to be known, falls pretty far down the pecking order for the big boys.

We do often get to see some surprises in this tournament in the early rounds, with the bigger teams often playing a mix of younger players and bench warmers.

As the tournament progresses, though, some start to take it more seriously. The Third Round has just been completed and the Round of 16 is next.

Let’s take a look at the upcoming matchups and how good the chances are for each remaining team to win it.

Newcastle vs Chelsea

The 3rd Round was a tough one for Newcastle, who scraped by Wimbledon at home after the games were switched due to a sinkhole appearing on Wimbledon’s ground. Chelsea blew past Barrow with a 5-0 win. Newcastle is +1100 to win the tournament, while Chelsea is at +800. It is tough to bet against Newcastle at home.

Southampton vs Stoke

This is one that you would expect the Saints (+3500) to win, but it might be as far as they go in the tournament based on their league form. Stoke (+9000) really has nothing to lose at this point, so they will give it a go, although I expect they will come up short.

Brentford vs Sheffield Wednesday

Another matchup that has an EPL club going against a lower division opponent. Brentford (+2300) beat Leyton Orient 3-1 in Round 3, while Sheffield Wednesday (+11000) beat Blackpool 1-0. This should be the end of the road for them.

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Brighton vs Liverpool

Another good matchup, and one where you wonder just how strong Liverpool (+810) will go with their team selection. Brighton (+1775) will almost certainly go full strength, but will that be enough?

Preston vs Arsenal

Realistically, this is little more than an opportunity or Preston (+20000) to make some money with a tie against an EPL opponent. Arsenal (+490) can probably afford to play with a weakened team and still get the win.

Manchester United vs Leicester

It has been a rough start to the season for Manchester United (+960), so they might be focusing on this tournament a little more than some of the other big teams. I think the same rules apply to Leicester (+4300), but you have to like United at home.

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace

Another good matchup here, with Villa (+1100) probably happy to get the home draw after struggling to get past Wycombe on the road in Round 3. Crystal Palace (+2400) beat QPR 2-1 in the last round. I am giving the slight edge to Villa in this one.

Tottenham vs Manchester City

This is arguably the best matchup in the Round of 16. Spurs (+1300) will have the benefit of home field advantage, but does that really mean much against a team as good as Manchester City (+290). The question is really how strong a lineup City will field for this one.